Republicans are making voter registration gains ahead of the midterms: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Subscribe to read this story ad-free

Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down the voter registration inroads Republicans have been making since the last election. Plus, we have the latest on the fallout from the Charlie Kirk shooting.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

— Adam Wollner

Republicans are making voter registration gains ahead of the midterms

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Republicans are hoping to avoid a repeat of President Donald Trump’s first term, when they lost control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections. And they have at least one data point to draw encouragement from: voter registration.

Not every state registers voters by party. But there are 28 that do and that have both current and historical numbers available for comparison. And in these states, Republicans have slashed a long-standing Democratic registration edge by more than 1 million just since last year’s election. This is a far cry from Trump’s first term, when the net shift to the GOP between the 2016 and 2018 elections was barely 100,000.

Democrats have long enjoyed an overall advantage in party registration, although it has been eroding over time. But the pace of that erosion slowed during Trump’s first term, amid concerns about the president’s policies and style. Republican gains accelerated again after Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and have continued after Trump’s return to the White House. This includes the four swing states where data is available.

Pennsylvania is particularly striking. The Democratic registration margin there swelled to more than 1.2 million following Barack Obama’s election in 2008 and remained over 1 million through 2014. Since then, it has declined every year — except during Trump’s first term, when Democrats actually saw their advantage increase between 2017 and 2018. But so far, at least, there’s been no Democratic resurgence during Trump’s second term, and Republicans are now closer to Democrats in total registrations in the battleground state than at any point this century.

Overall, the GOP’s registration momentum marks a continuation of a longer-term trend that seems to be bringing the two parties closer to parity — a more exact alignment of how people are classified on the voter rolls with how they are already voting. (Part of this story is also a marked rise in the number of people registering as independents and not registering with either party.)

But as the 2026 landscape takes shape, a question is whether this also reflects newer damage to the Democratic Party brand. Since last year’s election, polling has continued to find Democrats with a worse image than Republicans. This is also a difference from Trump’s first term, when it was the GOP that had more of an image problem — another factor that contributed to Democrats’ 2018 windfall.

The Republican hope is that this will prevent Democrats from capitalizing on what might otherwise be a favorable political climate for them.

Utah prosecutors seek death penalty for Charlie Kirk shooting suspect

Prosecutors released excerpts of text messages between the suspect in Charlie Kirk’s assassination and his roommate that they say detail the suspect’s confession and his plans to get rid of the evidence, Doha Madani reports.

Tyler Robinson was charged with felony aggravated murder as well as six other crimes in connection with Kirk’s killing last week, Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray said. Gray also said he will file a notice of intent to seek the death penalty.

More fallout from the Kirk assassination:

FBI Director Kash Patel defended his handling of the Kirk investigation and firings at his agency during a fiery Senate hearing, Ryan J. Reilly and Victoria Ebner report. Patel said it was “disgusting” that people would undermine his experience and that of his deputy, Dan Bongino.

Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Trump administration will be “targeting” hate speech, which she differentiated from free speech — and then tried to walk it back a day later, Dareh Gregorian writes.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has embraced increasingly inflammatory rhetoric in the days since Kirk was killed, David Ingram notes.

Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro excoriated the recent spate of politically motivated attacks and killings during a speech to the Eradicate Hate Global Summit in Pittsburgh, Allan Smith reports.

Follow live updates →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.