The key areas to watch in Virginia tonight as voters weigh Democrats' redistricting plan: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki lays out what to watch for as the results roll in tonight on Virginia’s redistricting referendum. Plus, Bridget Bowman digs into the unsettled Georgia Republican Senate primary.

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— Adam Wollner

The key areas to watch in Virginia tonight as voters weigh Democrats' redistricting plan

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

There is genuine suspense in Virginia. Polling for today’s redistricting referendum has been close, and the unusual nature of the contest adds even more volatility to the mix.

Democrats are seeking to use their control of state government to redraw the state’s congressional map in a way that would add four more seats for their party, but they need approval from voters to do so. They are calculating that the state’s bluish tint and their party’s pronounced enthusiasm advantage in recent special elections will be enough to carry the day.

But Democrats are testing just how far the state’s voters are willing to go. The proposal would transform the state’s delegation from a 6-5 split between the parties into a likely 10-1 Democratic majority.

The swing areas of the state will be key to the results. Sixteen of Virginia’s 139 counties and independent cities voted both for Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Glenn Youngkin in the last two gubernatorial elections.

These localities vary in size, geography and demographics, but their results collectively will provide a valuable gauge tonight. Given that Youngkin’s statewide margin was narrow — just under 2 points — they represent the kinds of politically marginal areas that are close to a must-win for any statewide Republican campaign effort.

Reinforcing this point is what happened in last year’s attorney general election, in which Democrat Jay Jones significantly underperformed Spanberger because of a scandal surrounding violent text messages he had sent. Even amid that controversy, Jones still narrowly carried 10 of these 16 localities. Overall, he won his election by 6 points, compared with 15 for Spanberger. So if the “no” side isn’t sweeping all of these places tonight, or coming very close to it, then the referendum will probably pass.

And in some of these places, the “no” side doesn’t just need to win — it needs to win by a healthy margin. Virginia Beach, with a population of about 450,000, is the largest of the Spanberger/Youngkin localities, and Youngkin carried it by 8 points. The “no” side can probably afford to carry Virginia Beach by a little less than that, but not much. The same is true in next-door Chesapeake, a city of about 250,000 that Youngkin won by 6 points.

The single-best bellwether tonight is probably in the suburbs south of Richmond, in fast-growing Chesterfield County. With nearly 400,000 residents — the fifth-largest of Virginia’s counties and cities — Chesterfield is a heavyweight in every statewide election. Youngkin did manage to carry it in 2021, but that was five years ago. The county is growing and diversifying fast, which has created a clear blue trend. In fact, Chesterfield is one of the few large counties in America where Kamala Harris actually performed better in 2024 (a 9-point win) than Joe Biden did in 2020 (a 6-point win).

So while Youngkin was able to carry Chesterfield by 4 points in 2021, the county’s ongoing political transformation has landed it in a place where tonight it’s probably the break-even county for either side. As it goes, so very well may go the entire referendum.

Tune in to the Kornacki Cam at 6:45 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down the results.

First attack ad churns Georgia’s uncertain Republican Senate primary

By Bridget Bowman and Dan Gallo

The GOP Senate primary in Georgia is heating up one month before voters head to the polls, with Rep. Buddy Carter launching the first attack ad of the race, former football coach Derek Dooley hitting the airwaves and Rep. Mike Collins touting his fundraising.

With three major candidates dividing the May 19 primary vote, and President Donald Trump so far declining to make an endorsement, the race is expected to head to a June 16 runoff.

So far, Carter’s campaign has dominated the airwaves, spending $5.5 million in ads through the primary, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Dooley has spent $519,000, while Collins has spent $170,000, largely on digital ads.

Carter’s latest ad knocks Collins as he faces an Ethics Committee investigation over allegations of misusing congressional funds by paying his former chief of staff for campaign work and by employing that aide’s girlfriend, who did not do work for the office.

Meanwhile, Dooley is airing his first ads, casting himself as a “conservative outsider.” Dooley is a former University of Tennessee football coach. His father was a legendary coach at the University of Georgia.

And Collins’ campaign has argued that he is the front-runner in the race after raising $1 million in the first quarter of the year, surpassing Dooley’s and Carter’s fundraising totals over the same period. Dooley raised $663,000 and Carter raised $470,000.

The three candidates are vying to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, a top GOP target as the party looks to expand its 53-47 majority in the Senate.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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