3 takeaways from our new polling averages: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the numbers to know from our newly launched polling averages. Plus, Henry J. Gomez explains why Appalachia will be key to the outcome of Ohio’s Senate race.

— Adam Wollner

3 takeaways from NBC News’ polling averages

Analysis by Scott Bland

NBC News launched new polling averages today, rounding up all the available public surveys on two critical measures of the political moment: President Donald Trump’s approval rating and which party voters say they’ll back for Congress this fall.

Here’s what the new averages tell us:

Democrats are at their strongest point yet this cycle. As Election Day draws nearer, the Democratic edge on the “generic ballot” — poll questions asking which party voters plan to support or want to see in control of Congress — is the widest it’s been (9 points) in Trump’s second term. The gap has expanded as we switched to calculating our polling average for likely voters instead of registered voters.

Keep an eye out for undecided voters. That 9-point advantage for Democrats right now comes from a 52%-43% average. That leaves about 5% of respondents to all these polls unaccounted for, whether they’re undecided, not sure about voting, picking a third-party candidate or some other factor.

There are ample reasons to think those remaining voters — and maybe some soft supporters on either side — could move one way or another in the next few weeks. Maybe the Democratic Party’s remaining unpopularity is too much for some voters to look past. Perhaps rising prices, the Iran war and other issues spark some 2024 Trump voters to back local Democratic candidates.

Whatever ends up happening, that small slice will play a big role in 2026. So don’t forget about the undecided portion of a poll (or a polling average) when looking at the margin between Democrats and Republicans.

What’s fueling Trump’s troubles? For all the importance of base turnout and polarization, independent voters make or break elections and presidencies. And independents are really, really sour on Trump right now. His approval rating with independents stands at 26% in the polling average, and they’re breaking toward Democrats on the generic ballot in a big way.

Don’t ignore Trump’s numbers among Republicans, though. His approval rating has dipped about 10 points among the GOP since his second inauguration, and he’s facing some serious skepticism from parts of his party about the Iran war and the economy.

Read more on our new polling averages →

How race, religion and a private jet could make Appalachia a battleground in Ohio

By Henry J. Gomez

PORTSMOUTH, Ohio — Vivek Ramaswamy won Ohio’s Republican primary for governor in May with a landslide 82.4% of the vote.

But Democrats see opportunity this fall in the wide swath of rural counties where Ramaswamy won by smaller margins against a largely unknown opponent. Ramaswamy underperformed his statewide vote share in 29 of the 32 counties classified as Appalachia. Seven of his 10 weakest counties are in the region that rings eastern and southern Ohio along the Ohio River.

Amy Acton, Ramaswamy’s Democratic rival, has made repeated trips to the area, which gets less attention and has fewer voters than large metro areas such as Columbus and Cleveland. During a two-day swing last week, she visited Shawnee State University here across the river from Kentucky, and she stopped in Marietta, where she boasts an endorsement from the City Council president — a Republican.

Acton is unlikely to win in places that have decisively backed President Donald Trump in recent elections. Her goal is to hold down Ramaswamy’s percentages there.

“People are exhausted of being pitted against one another,” Acton, a physician and the state’s former health director, said after she toured an art gallery, a library and a 3D printing lab on Shawnee State’s campus. “They’re exhausted of the hate and chaos and vitriol, and they want us to just get back. They don’t really care what party you are.”

The challenges Ramaswamy faces stem in part from a tough political climate for Republicans nationwide, according to conversations with more than a dozen Ohio activists and operatives from both parties. Trump, who backs Ramaswamy, faces low job approval ratings as he navigates an unpopular war with Iran and frustration over the cost of living.

But there are challenges unique to Ramaswamy, a billionaire who struck it rich in biotech. He travels the state in a private plane at a time when affordability concerns — including a war-related rise in gas and diesel prices — are felt deeply in Appalachia.

Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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