WASHINGTON — If a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine ever comes together, the United States could take the lead role in monitoring a large buffer zone inside Ukraine envisioned as a way to protect the country from Russia, according to four people familiar with a plan that military officials from Ukraine’s allies, including the United States, have been discussing.
The buffer zone would be a large demilitarized area — the borders of which have not yet been decided — inside what is now Ukraine, dividing Russian and Ukrainian territory within the country. In part because of its technological capabilities, the United States would take the lead in watching the buffer zone, using drones and satellites along with other intelligence capabilities, but it would coordinate with other countries that would also monitor.
The zone could then be secured by troops from one or more non-NATO countries, like Saudi Arabia or even Bangladesh, according to the people familiar with the plan. No U.S. troops would be deployed inside Ukraine, they said. Politico previously reported the general idea of a buffer zone.
Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to agree to any plan for security guarantees for Ukraine, and NATO involvement or even the suggestion of it is a major issue for him, so the planners are taking pains to avoid using NATO forces or anything resembling NATO branding, some of the people familiar with the plan said.
Instead, some of the guarantees would be likely to rely on the troops from non-NATO countries and on a patchwork of bilateral agreements among Ukraine and its allies that would give Ukraine security assurances without involving NATO’s Article V — an attack on one means an attack on all — which amounts to a red line for Moscow.
Any plan is only tentative until Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agree to one, in addition to the leaders of the countries that would be involved in the security guarantees, including President Donald Trump.
This one has been developed in the wake of Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15. That meeting was initially expected to lead to further talks, possibly direct discussions between Putin and Zelenskyy, but progress toward a peace deal has stalled since then. Still, Ukraine’s allies have gone ahead with their work on the potential security guarantees, which would most likely be key to peace.
On Thursday, members of the group of allies, which is informally known as the “coalition of the willing,” met to potentially formalize aspects of the plan. The meeting was led by France and the United Kingdom, which are also expected to head up the overall effort to provide Ukraine with security after the war’s end.
Zelenskyy wrote on X after the meeting: “We discussed in detail each country’s readiness to make a contribution to ensuring security on land, at sea, in the air, and in cyberspace. We coordinated positions and reviewed elements of security guarantees.”
On Friday, though, Putin rejected the idea of troops from other countries playing any role, saying, “As for possible military contingents in Ukraine — this is one of the primary reasons for drawing Ukraine into NATO. ... And if decisions are reached that will lead to peace, to a long-term peace, then I simply do not see any sense in their presence on the territory of Ukraine. That’s all. Because if these agreements are reached, let no one doubt that Russia will implement them in full. And we will respect those security guarantees that, of course, must be developed for both Russia and Ukraine. And, I repeat once again, of course, Russia will fulfill the agreement.”
Putin's stance is one of many challenges involved as planning moves forward. There are also tough decisions to be made about what kind of Russian incursions would trigger a response from either Ukraine or the monitoring forces and what kind of response would be allowed. one of the sources said. This person said that the rules of engagement still need to be worked out and that they are likely to be contested during any disagreements after a deal and the buffer are in place.
Along with the buffer zone, it would also be important to guarantee that Russia could not choke off Ukraine’s economy. To that point, Turkey would be responsible for ensuring the unimpeded flow of goods and services on the Black Sea by conducting maritime surveillance of and enforcement in the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey played a part in securing the maritime corridor that was established to get grain out of Ukraine.
At the Pentagon, talks are being led by Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, with a broader discussion also centered on deterrence, training and defense industrial cooperation. On the latter front, the United States is discussing with Ukraine a deal that could be worth around $100 billion, under which Kyiv would be able to buy American weapons, while in exchange the United States would get intellectual property rights for the cutting-edge systems the Ukrainians have been developing, according to a U.S. official.
The week after Trump met with Putin, Caine briefed Trump on four options for the security guarantee and recommended the most forward-leaning approach, this official said.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt did not address the contours of the plan in a statement to NBC News.
“President Trump is the decision maker,” she wrote. “Out of respect for ongoing diplomatic negotiations, the White House is not going to get ahead of him on these important matters.”
She added: “Anyone anonymously claiming to know what he will or will not support doesn’t know what they are talking about.”
The people familiar with the plan who spoke with NBC News did not say Trump had endorsed or ruled out any of the options.
