President Donald Trump says the United States and Ukraine are poised to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals “and other things” — or at least they were before a heated moment between him, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday.
In the run-up to Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, Trump has been pushing for Ukraine to grant the U.S. rights to the country’s substantial natural resources, which include rare earth elements, critical minerals such as titanium and lithium, coal, oil and natural gas reserves.
But industry experts say the precise value and volume of Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains unclear and extracting these minerals will require large-scale capital investment that could take years to produce results, long after Trump’s term ends
Here are the facts on Ukraine’s mineral resources:
What is the value of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals?
Rare earths, a subset of critical minerals, are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that, despite their name, are fairly abundant throughout the world. However, the elements require elaborate processing and refinement, and China now dominates that supply chain.
Rare earths are in high demand because of their range of applications in the defense and technology sectors, including for lasers, missiles and tanks, as well as computers, televisions, smartphones and clean energy technologies.
The quantity and value of Ukraine’s rare earth elements remain unclear, partly because up-to-date geological surveys need to be carried out. Mineral maps for Ukraine date to the Soviet era and are not fully reliable, experts say.
Speaking this month about a possible mineral deal, Trump told Fox News: “I told them that I want the equivalent of like $500 billion worth of rare earth (minerals), and they’ve essentially agreed to do that.”
But industry experts say Trump’s reference to $500 billion worth of rare earths in Ukraine seriously overstates the potential total value of the country’s rare earth reserves. The entire global rare earths market is worth only about $12 billion, according to some estimates.
Ukraine has an abundance of scandium, a rare earth element, according to experts.
But detailed information on these reserves is classified, according to the Ukrainian government and industry reports. Often obtained as a byproduct of ore processing or from processed tailings or residues, scandium is used in everything from military equipment to sporting goods.
Ukraine also has other rare earth reserves, including cerium, dysprosium, erbium, gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, terbium, thulium and yttrium, according to Robert Muggah, principal of SecDev, a Canadian geopolitical risk analysis company.
What critical minerals are in Ukraine?
Ukraine has other critical minerals that are not classified as rare earths but are valuable and required for weapons systems, aircraft and other sophisticated technology.
The U.S. Geological Survey lists 50 minerals considered critical to national security and for America’s economy. The classification of “critical” varies from country to country, depending on the weak links in a nation’s supply chain. Critical minerals include lithium, aluminum, cobalt, graphite and titanium.
Ukraine has significant reserves of titanium, graphite, lithium and uranium among others, according to experts and some geological surveys. The U.S. Geological Survey says Ukraine is one of the world’s top producers of titanium sponge, ilmenite and graphite — all critical minerals.
The precise value of Ukraine’s critical minerals remains unclear and estimates vary, partly because of shifting commodity prices, the need for new geological surveys and the logistical challenge of extracting and refining the minerals, experts say. According to a 2023 study by Forbes Ukraine, the country’s rare earth and other critical minerals could be worth as much as $14.8 trillion. Ukraine’s government says the country’s minerals and other natural resources are worth “trillions of U.S. dollars.”
What about Ukraine’s hydrocarbon reserves?
Ukraine has a vast quantity of valuable hydrocarbon reserves, including coal, natural gas and oil.
A significant portion of its hydrocarbons are on territory now controlled by Russia, including off-shore natural gas sites on the coast of the Crimean Peninsula and coal deposits and mines in eastern Ukraine. More than half of Ukraine’s coal reserves and mines are in occupied territory and about 20 percent of its natural gas fields and wells.
Estimates vary as to the potential value of Ukraine’s mineral and hydrocarbon reserves.
Volodymyr Landa, senior economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy in Kyiv, estimates that Ukraine’s hydrocarbon resources are worth roughly $360 billion.
How realistic is it to extract these minerals?
There are no current rare earth projects underway in Ukraine and experts say it will take years to get projects off the ground, possibly up to a decade.
However, other critical minerals and hydrocarbons are more accessible, though developing those minerals would require major investments. The Russian invasion has inflicted serious damage on the country’s power grid, which will need to be repaired to revive energy-intensive mining operations.
Another challenge is that a significant portion of Ukraine’s natural resources are now in areas under the Russian military’s control. As of 2022, about 20% of Ukraine was occupied by Russian forces, and about 40% of the country’s minerals and rare earths were in that area, according to SecDev’s estimates. Russia has raised the possibility of providing access to the United States to critical minerals on Russian-occupied territory, NBC News has reported.
“Determining whether Trump’s demand for $500 billion worth of Ukrainian resources is realistic depends on what resources he is actually referring to,” Muggah said. “If Trump is focused narrowly on rare earths, then his demands are totally unrealistic.”
Trump, however, has referred to other resources as well. If the U.S. is focused on a wider range of resources than just rare earths, critical minerals and hydrocarbons, then “yes, there is potential,” Muggah said.
What country dominates the supply of rare earth elements?
China heavily dominates the supply chain for rare earths, controlling much of the extraction and processing. That has raised concerns in the United States and other countries that China could cut off an adversary from the rare earth supply chain.
Both China and Russia are leading players in the global supply of critical minerals, which could also place the United States in a vulnerable position in a crisis. If the United States gained access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth, it could help ease America’s dependence on China and Russia for critical minerals — at least to some degree, experts say.
