WASHINGTON — If it’s Thursday ... The war in Ukraine enters its fourth week. ... Ukraine’s Zelenskyy accuses Germany of prioritizing its economy over Ukraine’s security. ... President Biden calls Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.” ... The Fed paints a more pessimistic picture on the short-term U.S. economy, per NBC’s Benjy Sarlin. ... GOP primary opponent tries to tackle Hershel Walker in Georgia Senate. ... Trump weighs dumping Mo Brooks in Alabama Senate. ... And let the March Madness begin.
But first: On Day 22 of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s worth asking: How does this conflict end?
With an eventual ceasefire and truce? A Russian retreat? Further escalation? Russia’s capture of Ukraine? Or the status quo?
We saw two different portraits of the war yesterday.
The first were the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces,” the Financial Times reports.
The second were the mass graves — including of children — in Mariupol. “The bodies of the children all lie here, dumped into this narrow trench hastily dug into the frozen earth of Mariupol to the constant drumbeat of shelling,” the AP says.
No matter the endgame or eventual off-ramp, the pill that everyone has to swallow is that it will likely include Putin staying in power.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 13 percent
That’s the share of mail ballots returned in the Texas primaries that were rejected, according to an AP analysis of 187 counties.
That comes after the state passed tougher laws related to voting, particularly by mail.
While the number of rejected ballots, 22,898, is a tiny fraction of the about 3 million votes in the election — few voters cast mail ballots in Texas to begin with — it made up a significant portion of those ballots sent in by mail.
Other numbers you need to know today:
81 percent: The portion of adults in America, per new Monmouth polling, that back sanctions against Russia.
72 percent: The portion who believe those sanctions are hurting the U.S. economy.
1.5 million: The number of children who have fled Ukraine since the start of the war there, according to UNICEF Spokesperson James Elder, an average of 75,000 a day.
0.25: That’s the number of percentage points the Federal Reserve announced it would raise interest rates by, the first increase since 2018.
Talking policy with Benjy: Fed paints a more pessimistic picture on short-term economy
The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percent on Wednesday, the first in a series of expected hikes to rein in inflation. But the more significant takeaway from its meeting may be how Fed members have become more pessimistic about the next year’s forecast — with more inflation, less growth, and a ton of uncertainty on the horizon. They now see inflation at 4.3 percent for 2022, versus 2.6 percent in their December forecast. And they expect the economy to grow 2.8 percent instead of 4 percent.
For months, the Fed has been predicting inflation would break eventually as things settled back to normal after the pandemic (or at least a “new normal”). Even with 40-year high inflation this year, that’s still their overall prediction, but the return date for “normal” keeps getting pushed back — first by Omicron, and now by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Inflation is likely to take longer to return to our price-stability goal than previously expected,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference.
Fed members now see 2023 and 2024 as more likely target dates for prices moving quickly towards two percent inflation, and considerable risk that things could be upended along the way.
In more positive news, Powell still sees limited risk of a recession that would undo surging job gains in recent months. “All signs are that this is a strong economy,” he said.
But with voters currently more upset over prices than jobs, it adds up to a darker picture for Democrats in the midterms, who are running out of time to change voters’ perceptions of the economy and face immediate obstacles largely beyond their control.
Midterm roundup: Tackling Herschel Walker
A brutal Senate primary is heating up in Georgia, where Republican Gary Black’s campaign dropped opposition research about primary opponent Herschel Walker (former President Donald Trump’s pick), highlighting a lengthy list of allegations of domestic assault, threats and violence.
The Black campaign is up with a new microsite that includes a two-minute video on the allegations. Walker, who says he suffers from mental illness, denied some allegations in an interview with Axios last year and has broadly addressed pieces of this in interviews and his book.
Asked to comment on the attack, Walker spokeswoman Mallory Blount told NBC: “The only thing more embarrassing than Gary Black’s obsession with Herschel Walker is Gary’s fundraising and poll numbers.”
The clash is all a reminder of the severity of the accusations against Walker, and a possible preview of how Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock might attack Walker if he wins the primary.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Alabama Senate: Former President Trump told The Washington Examiner that Alabama GOP Rep. Mo Brooks “is disappointing” and raised the prospect of changing his endorsement. Brooks blamed the waffling from Trump on “really bad advice,” adding that Trump “wants me to remove Joe Biden from office so he can be president” but “the law doesn’t permit that.”
Pennsylvania Senate: The brutal GOP primary has a new twist. Celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz announced Wednesday he would renounce his Turkish citizenship if he wins, a decision that comes after weeks of attacks from his opponents.
New York Governor: CNBC is reporting that former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who (as we wrote about yesterday) has been spending millions on television ads, is discussing a comeback bid for governor. Cuomo put out another ad yesterday, which looks a lot like a campaign ad.
Primary postponed: A Maryland court postponed the state’s primary from June 28 to July 19 amid ongoing court battles over new redistricting.
2024 watch (in Utah): Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes is preparing to challenge GOP Sen. Mitt Romney in the 2024 primary, Politico reports. Romney hasn’t decided if he’s running again
Ad watch: Defending Budd
The Club for Growth came to the defense of North Carolina GOP Rep. Ted Budd in his Senate race this week after former Gov. Pat McCrory’s campaign attacked him on Russia.
A week after McCrory’s ad used snippets of Budd in interviews to accuse him of complementing Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Club’s new ad airs Budd’s comments in context and argues the McCrory ad was a “dirty hit job."
You can read more on the MTP Blog.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
Trump suggested in an interview with the Washington Examiner that former Vice President Mike Pence may not be his running mate again if the former president runs for the White House in 2024.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution delves into how Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue is appealing to the “GOP’s right flank” in the Republican primary for governor.
Progressive House Democrats are pushing Biden to issue executive orders to further his policy priorities as his agenda stalls in Congress, The Washington Post reports.
