A steady stream of money, advertisements and activity from national political figures has flowed into Wisconsin and Florida ahead of elections Tuesday.
The biggest race is for a seat on Wisconsin's Supreme Court, but a pair of congressional special elections in Florida have drawn attention, too. Voters in Wisconsin will also consider a race for state superintendent and a constitutional amendment on voter ID.
Here are the key numbers to know that have shaped these elections.
A deluge of TV ads
The vast majority of the $80 million-plus spent since Jan. 1 on TV in these off-year elections has been in Wisconsin, where the contest between state judges Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel has been the most expensive state Supreme Court race in history, surpassing the state's 2023 campaign.
Wisconsin has seen more than $70 million in TV ads on the court race (plus a bit more on other races on the ballot), according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Meanwhile, the special election in Florida’s 1st District has seen $3.4 million, and the one in the 6th District has seen $6.2 million through Election Day.
Spending related to Elon Musk
Billionaire White House adviser Elon Musk has played a major role in the uptick in spending in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
Musk’s super PAC, America PAC, has spent $12.2 million and counting to boost Schimel. He also donated another $3 million to the state Republican Party. And he gave away million-dollar checks to petition signers at a recent event in Wisconsin ahead of Tuesday’s elections.
Meanwhile, another group with links to Musk, the nonprofit Building America’s Future, has spent $4.8 million in Wisconsin. (It’s unclear whether Musk is currently supporting that group.)
The biggest liberal-aligned group in the Wisconsin race has been A Better Wisconsin Together, which has spent $8.4 million to benefit Crawford.
Musk's America PAC has also gotten involved in Florida, but with far smaller sums, dropping nearly $100,000 on phone calls and texts in the two races, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
A lot of Musk X posts about Wisconsin
Musk isn't just pouring money into the race; he's been talking a lot about it, too.
He has posted or reposted 73 times on X about the Wisconsin Supreme Court race this year, as of midday Monday. Most of those posts came in recent weeks, as his money and involvement in the campaign have become a central theme.
Musk posted once about the race in January before sending a flurry of social media messages about the race in the last days of March.
Early voting
Early voting is up in Wisconsin compared with the state’s 2023 Supreme Court race, when about 453,000 people voted early or by mail ahead of Election Day. The question is: How many people will show up on Election Day, and what will total turnout look like?
Similarly, the campaigns in the Florida special elections are keeping a close eye on early turnout there, with one county demonstrating why some Republicans have been a bit nervous despite the strong GOP lean of the districts involved.
In Flagler County, Florida — the only unsplit county in Florida’s 6th Congressional District — Republicans account for 48% of early votes cast in the special election, virtually in line with Republicans’ 49% share of total registered voters in the county.
But Democrats are overperforming their registration in the early vote. While 24% of active Flagler County voters are Democrats, 36% of early voters are registered Democrats. It’s tricky to project anything final from early turnout numbers, but those voting numbers illustrate one reason why Democrats have done relatively well in special elections over the past few years: Their voters participate disproportionately in these contests.
Republican-leaning House districts
Though Republicans have expressed some concern about Democrats' heavy fundraising in the Florida races, these districts are extremely red, giving the GOP candidates a lot of room for error.
President Donald Trump carried the 6th District with 65% of the vote last November, and the 1st District with 68%. But Republicans still must convince their voters to turn out at an unusual time.
A narrow House majority
Republicans hold a narrow 218-213 majority in the House, with four seats vacant (two won by each party in the 2024 election). Recapturing the Florida districts the GOP carried last year will give the party a slightly wider margin as Congress begins serious deliberation of how to advance Trump’s budget and tax proposals this year.
With two wins in Florida, House Republicans would be able to pass bills while losing three or fewer GOP members, if every member voted on the bill. At one point earlier this year, that margin for error was down to a single vote.
