In states with high-profile governor's races, candidates further down the ballot typically rely on the top of the ticket for a boost.
But in Virginia, that dynamic has been flipped on its head in the closing stretch of this year's campaign, at least on the airwaves.
Republicans have spent more on TV ads in recent weeks on the race for attorney general — where past violent text messages by the Democratic nominee have roiled the race — than the higher-profile contest for governor, where the GOP candidate is the underdog.
Campaign finance rules in Virginia allow outside groups to donate directly to candidates, so the bulk of Republicans' ad spending in these two races have come from Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the gubernatorial nominee, and Attorney General Jason Miyares.
According to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Earle-Sears' campaign spent more than $8.1 million on ads in September, compared to about $5.5 million from the Miyares camp.
But those numbers flipped in October — $10.2 million from Miyares and $7.5 million from Earle-Sears.
A week-by-week analysis of the ad spending in Virginia underscores how GOP spending has jumped in the attorney general's race in the final month, as Democratic nominee Jay Jones has faced criticism for suggesting in private text messages three years ago that the then-Republican speaker of the state House get “two bullets to the head.”
GOP ad spending in the governor and attorney general races remained neck-and-neck for much of September, with the governor's contest drawing slightly more ad spending in the final half of the month.
But there's been a dramatic difference since the first news story about Jones' text messages was published in early October.
Republicans spent $821,000 on ads in the Virginia attorney general's race the week of Oct. 6, compared to $537,000 in the governor's race. A week later, that attorney general race spending ballooned to almost $1.5 million, while the GOP spending in the governor's race rose to a more modest $665,000. And during the week of Oct. 20, that GOP spending in the attorney general's race stayed about constant, while the GOP spending governor's race rose to just under $1 million.
Many of the top Republican ads in both races feature the text messages. Miyares uses them to counter his opponent directly, while Earle-Sears criticizes former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, her Democratic opponent, for not calling on Jones to end his campaign.
"You might be a committed Democrat or a hardcore Republican, but if a carjacker comes for you, he won't check your bumper sticker first," Miyares says in a recent ad.
"We need an attorney general who protects everyone," Miyares continues. "My opponent Jay Jones, he's a partisan politician who imagines the murder of his opponents. He's reckless and unhinged."
Recent public polling has shown Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by anywhere from 7 to 12 percentage points, while finding that the two attorney general candidates are locked in a dead heat.
