Republicans have spent a year cheering President Donald Trump’s gains among Latino voters in November 2024. Now, Democrats’ big wins among Latino voters this week have some Republicans sounding the alarm.
“This is a wake-up call for the GOP,” Rep. Maria Salazar, R-Fla., told NBC News.
Democrats’ double-digit victories in governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as wins in other elections in New York City and California, were driven in part by high levels of support among Latino voters.
Latino voters supported the Democratic candidates this year by at least double-digit margins, according to NBC News exit polling. Latino men, who broke for Trump last year, according to the 2024 exit polls, favored the Democrats in each of the races where exit polling was conducted on Tuesday.
In the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests, two-thirds of Latino voters supported the Democratic candidates.
That support was especially pronounced in New Jersey, where Latino voters made up 10 percent of the electorate. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill won big in areas of the state with sizable Latino populations, as she beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 13 points and reversed some of Trump’s gains in New Jersey.
For example, Sherrill carried Passaic County — which is about 45% Latino, according to census data — by 15 points on Tuesday, following Trump’s 3-point victory there last year.
Some Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., dismissed concerns about Latino voters’ shifts when pressed by NBC News.
“I do believe that the demographic shift that we were able to see and experience in the 2024 election will hold,” Johnson told reporters.
But other Republicans say their party should pay attention to Latino voters’ shift toward Democrats on Tuesday, as the Trump administration ramps up immigrant detentions and deportations.
When asked how Trump’s immigration agenda is playing in Latino communities, Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., told NBC News, “I’d be less than honest if I told you, ‘No, everything’s great.’”
“There are some things that we need to change and have a course correction with in regards to immigration,” Gimenez added. “Everybody’s in favor of gang members, criminals, et cetera, being deported and all that. Not too many people are in favor of grandmothers and caregivers and all that you know falling under the same umbrella. That’s the course correction.”
Another House Republican from Texas, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the election results, said the GOP needs to do a better job keeping Latino voters inside their tent — especially without Trump on the ballot in next year’s midterms.
“Clearly it’s an issue, and a big one,” the member said.
Jose Arango, the GOP chairman in Hudson County, New Jersey, which is 41% Latino, said, “People send you a message and elected officials should learn.”
Sherrill won Hudson County by 50 points, almost doubling then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ margin of victory there last year.
Latino voters are “not satisfied with the government closing. They’re not satisfied that New Jersey’s not affordable and the [Sherrill] campaign has blamed the White House. And they’re not satisfied with the issues of ICE,” Arango said, referring to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Arango noted that ICE detained a popular restaurant owner in Monmouth County just a few days before the election.
Salazar told NBC News, “We need economy, we need border security, but we have an issue with immigration,” touting her proposal to provide legal status for certain undocumented workers.
“We do not want the illegals who are criminals, but we do want to give dignity to those who are not criminals," Salazar said. "And they have been among us for years and decades, and they have been contributing to the economy."
It appears voters on Tuesday were concerned about Trump’s actions on immigration enforcement, with majorities of Latinos in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City saying the administration has gone too far, according to exit polling.
Amanda, a Latina resident of Morris County, New Jersey, was one of them. She voted for Trump last year but decided to back Sherrill on Tuesday.
“I don’t like that we’re deporting American citizens that are not criminals,” said Amanda, who declined to share her last name while discussing politics. She spoke to NBC News outside a Colombian bakery in Dover, a predominantly Hispanic community, and said she quickly regretted her vote for Trump because of his immigration policies.
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, who conducted polling for the pro-Sherrill super PAC One Giant Leap, noted that deportations and masked ICE agents came up in focus groups with Latino voters.
“This is the beginning of the reckoning around mass deportation,” Greenberg said.
While Latino voters said the Trump administration’s actions had gone too far, the economy remained the top issue.
Pluralities of Latino voters in every state where exit polling was conducted said the economy or cost of living was the issue that mattered most to their vote. When it comes to their family finances, majorities also said they are holding steady or falling behind financially, with about a third consistently reporting they’re falling behind.
In exit polls, at least 6-in-10 Latino voters said they feel dissatisfied or angry about the direction of the country, and at least 4-in-10 said their vote was to oppose Trump.
“Latinos who voted for him had buyers’ remorse for Trump,” said Patricia Campos-Media, a Sherill campaign vice chair and longtime activist in New Jersey, noting Trump promised to boost the economy and deport criminals.
Campos-Medina credited Sherrill’s victory among Latino voters to a message focused on “bread and butter” economic issues, and with sizable investments in Latino voter outreach and organizing.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked on the New Jersey Democratic Party’s canvassing effort, said the door-knocking program reached hundreds of thousands of Latino voters.
“What we kept hearing at the door was an ongoing anxiety around affordability,” Rocha said, noting voters raised concerns about the cost of utilities, groceries, housing and insurance. Rocha noted that voters did express concerns about ICE, but the top concerns were economic ones.
“There’s a group of Latinos who gave Republicans a shot in the presidential [election],” Rocha said, later adding, “It hasn’t gotten any better under Trump and in fact got worse.”
