Democrats raise millions for Florida special elections in Trump territory

The Democrats running in a pair of April 1 special elections for deeply Republican House districts in Florida have raised a whopping $15.7 million combined in two months, but they still face steep uphill climbs in the upcoming campaigns. 

Gay Valimont, a gun control activist who is running in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, raised nearly $6.4 million from Jan. 9 to March 12, five times more than Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida's chief financial officer, according to new fundraising reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission.

And Josh Weil, a teacher running in the 6th District, raised $9.3 million, a haul more than 16 times larger than Republican state Sen. Randy Fine.

The massive sums suggest the energy among grassroots Democratic donors has not dissipated with President Donald Trump back in the Oval Office — 75% of both Valimont and Weil’s hauls were from donations of $200 or less. But while the candidates' fundraising is strong, the underlying political math of the districts is extremely GOP-friendly.

Trump carried the 1st District on the Florida Panhandle by 37 percentage points in November, winning 68% of the vote, according to election results data from NBC News’ Decision Desk. And he won the 6th District by 30 points, winning 65% of the vote. 

A wave of small-dollar, grassroots donations fueled Democrats running in early special elections in 2017 and 2018 during the early months of Trump’s first term. The April 1 special elections in Florida are the first of Trump’s second term, but Democrats are heavy underdogs in both districts and the races have attracted little attention from either political party or outside groups until recent days. 

The special elections are set to replace former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz in the 1st District, who announced he would resign from Congress and later withdrew as Trump’s pick for attorney general amid allegations of sexual misconduct, and former Rep. Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser. Gaetz and Waltz both won their re-elections last year by more than 30 points.

Trump has backed both of the GOP nominees in those races, and the party is looking forward to padding the slim Republican majority in the House, making it easier to advance legislation even if there are some GOP members absent or voting no.

Patronis raised more than $1.1 million from mid-January through mid-March, a period that included the Jan. 28 primary. Fine raised $561,000 over the same time period. 

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The latest reports also show that the Democrats have vastly outspent their GOP opponents. Valimont has spent $4.2 million and had $2.2 million in her campaign account as of March 12, while Patronis spent over $1 million and had $815,000 in his account. Weill spent $8.1 million to Fine’s $710,000 ending the period with $1.3 million on hand to Fine’s $93,000. 

Neither race has seen much involvement from the national parties or outside groups since the primary until this week. 

The Republican Party of Florida launched a joint ad buy with Fine, spending $930,000 on ads, according to Impact. And Defend American Jobs, a super PAC tied to the cryptocurrency industry, has spent $1 million on ads so far, which began on Tuesday.

On Thursday the Democratic National Committee announced it was sending funds to the Florida Democratic Party, though it did not specify how much, to help the party hire organizers and poll watchers.