Democrats have something important in common across the three highest-profile elections coming in November: an ad-spending edge.
Money doesn’t buy everything in campaigns — or else the history books would look very different. But the data, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, tells a story about the state of each race.
Take California, where the Democrats supporting the ballot measure for a gerrymander that would help paint some Republican-held seats blue have long held a massive spending edge. It has even more pronounced in the last week, as the opposition has virtually pulled its money off the airwaves ahead of the vote.
In Virginia’s governor’s election, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has benefited from a consistent 2-to-1 spending edge, which she has used to stay tightly focused on an economic message — as her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, has been hammering her on social issues and on the violent texts sent several years ago by the Democratic attorney general nominee.
The Democrats still have a substantial spending edge in the governor’s race in New Jersey, where Republicans are looking to score an upset four years after a closer-than-expected 3-point loss in the last governor’s election. But unlike in Virginia, outside groups on both sides of the aisle are spending heavily there with eyes on a statement win.
Here’s a deeper look at how the spending dynamic is playing out in each race — and at the ads the parties are buying with that money.
California's redistricting ballot measure
California voters will decide whether to back Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Democrats’ plan to redraw congressional districts for the rest of the decade in a move aimed at netting Democrats up to five more seats in Congress.
The plan is a major piece of Democratic efforts to strike back at moves by Republican-led states like Texas and Missouri to redraw their maps to pad the GOP lead in the House of Representatives. More Republican states could soon make similar moves, too. But unlike in those GOP-controlled states, California Democrats' plan needs voter approval, which is why the party is spending furiously to make its case.
So far, Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $66 million asking Californians to vote “yes” on the measure, dubbed the "Election Rigging Response Act," with ads framing the question as a battle against President Donald Trump. The top ads pan what it calls Trump’s “unprecedented power grab to steal congressional seats and rig the 2026 election.”
The “no” side is extraordinarily well-funded compared with most campaigns, but at almost $28 million spent on ads opposing the redistricting push so far, it falls well below the “yes” side.
The spending gap has been even more pronounced in recent weeks — almost $37 million versus $6.7 million in October, or, in the last week, $11.7 million to under $200,000.
Opponents’ ads have tried to frame Newsom, not Trump, as the bogeyman, arguing that he governor wants to steal power from the independent redistricting commission because “Gavin wants the same politicians who failed California to draw their own safe seats and rig elections to help make himself president.”
Virginia governor
Polls continue to show former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, with the edge. And the money reflects that situation.
Spanberger’s campaign has spent almost $40 million on ads this year, more than double the more than $18 million by Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign. What’s especially notable is that there hasn't been a massive influx of Republican dollars, like there was in 2021, to close the gap this year.
The Democratic campaign’s top ads focus tightly on economic issues, tying Earle-Sears to Trump and arguing the two are “raising prices for everything.”
Meanwhile, the Republican’s ads have a tight focus, too, but on other issues — attacking Spanberger over transgender policies in schools and, more recently, the violent text messages sent a few years ago by Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones.
New Jersey governor
While Democrats have the ad-spending edge here, too, the gulf between the two parties is nowhere near as deep, with outside groups on both sides spending heavily.
Since the primary elections ended, Democrats have spent $41 million to the GOP’s $29 million. Outside groups are the top two spenders: $23 million from the Democratic-aligned group Greater Garden State and $13 million from the GOP-aligned group Restore NJ.
At the candidate level, Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli has the spending edge, with $13 million compared with Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill’s $10.5 million.
There’s also relative unanimity in the advertising on the ground the two sides are fighting over — the economy.
All of the top ads in the race focus on various economic themes, battling over rising electric bills, whose policies could make them worse and which party's tax policies would be more harmful.
