WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which he signed into law this month, will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade, according to a report the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office published Monday.
The report found that the law, which Republicans passed along party lines, will also “increase by 10 million the number of people without health insurance” by 2034.
The budget office scrutinized the final version of the bill after Republicans made a series of last-minute changes to cobble together the votes needed in the Senate; it passed 51-50. That revised version subsequently passed the House on a vote of 218-214. Trump enacted it on July 4.
The package extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts while providing tax deductions for tips and overtime pay for the next four years. It includes hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending for the military and to carry out Trump’s mass deportation agenda. And it pays for some of that with cuts to Medicaid, SNAP benefits (which help low-income families purchase groceries) and clean energy funding.
The analysis found that the law’s net spending cuts of $1.1 trillion are outstripped by the $4.5 trillion in decreased revenue, compared with if the measure had not passed.
Republican leaders said passing the “big, beautiful bill” was essential to averting a tax hike at the end of this year, when much of Trump’s 2017 tax law was set to expire.
Recent surveys show the bill is unpopular with Americans. Democrats are leaning heavily into attacks on the bill as a tax cut that disproportionately benefits the wealthy, paid for in part with spending cuts that harm the working class.
Some Republicans and White House allies, meanwhile, are casting the bill as a tax benefit for “working families,” highlighting the move away from taxes on tips and overtime in particular. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted that voters will “reward” Republicans for the bill in the midterm elections.
“This is a bill that was written for hardworking Americans, middle- and lower-class earners in particular, and they will feel the effects of that in the economy, and they’ll have higher wages and more opportunity and more economic growth, and that’s a major factor in a midterm election. And the border will be secure. We’ll have American energy dominance going again,” Johnson told NBC News earlier this month after it passed.
Asked if he has any concerns that it will cost the GOP seats in the 2026 midterm elections, Johnson responded, “No concerns at all. In fact, it’s going to gain seats for us. We’re that confident.”
The CBO also found that the law, which includes changes to the Affordable Care Act, will reduce average premiums for the standard “benchmark” ACA plan by about 0.6% in 2034.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Monday the insurance losses will be even higher after accounting for ACA funding that is set to expire this year, which was not extended in the megabill.
“This finalized independent analysis from the CBO confirms it: Republicans’ signature bill is the ultimate betrayal of the American people,” Schumer said, adding that constituents will see that “when people lose their jobs, when people’s bills go up, when they’re paying more, when they’re losing their health insurance.”
