WASHINGTON — When Republicans forced a government shutdown in October 2013 in a fruitless quest to defund Obamacare, their Virginia gubernatorial candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, lost by fewer than 3 points. At the time, Cuccinelli’s top strategist lamented that “more than anything,” the shutdown “is what cost us the race.”
Ten years later, a new generation of House Republicans is on the verge of sparking a shutdown just ahead of another important election in Virginia, which could throw a wrench into Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s goals of capturing both chambers of the General Assembly. Early voting is already underway and the off-year election is being closely watched for clues about the 2024 presidential election landscape.
The 2013 shutdown "definitely helped us,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., who was a freshman senator in 2013 and said Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe’s poll numbers improved as a result. “And people do see it since only one side ever flirts with shutdown — Republicans.”
“People know who’s doing it. And Virginia is so connected that everybody’s got family who is affected by this,” Kaine said, positing that the “chaos” of another shutdown will spark a “backlash” and cause the GOP aggressors to back down.
Youngkin’s PAC, Spirit of Virginia, has raked in millions from donors around the country in hopes of holding the House of Delegates and flipping the state Senate, which would allow him to get some of his more controversial legislative goals, including abortion restrictions, across the finish line. It could also boost the national ambitions of a politician who has flirted with a presidential bid.
“Listen, we know Virginians really suffer. We know that,” he said, addressing the nearing shutdown at an event in Petersburg on Sept. 21. “And so I know there’s a lot of anxiety from a lot of folks across the commonwealth.”
A GOP split in Virginia's congressional delegation
Allies of Youngkin are particularly focused on several tight legislative races, including in the Hampton Roads area, where more than 80,000 active-duty military personnel live and work, who would not be paid during a shutdown. Democratic state Sen. Monty Mason is facing off against a longtime former sheriff from the area, Danny Diggs. In a race that'll test whether Democrats can counter GOP messaging on crime, an “October surprise” of a government shutdown entirely out of their control would have immediate impacts on the constituents they hope to represent.
“I’m running against someone who is more along the lines of the Republicans in the House of Representatives that are causing problems. It would afford me an opportunity to draw parallels,” Mason said, calling the potential shutdown an “enormous burden on families” that could have a “devastating impact.”
“You have got to work together,” he said. “It cannot be all about scoring political points.”
Diggs said he supports legislation by Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., that would ensure troops get paid if funding lapses.
“As Sheriff of York and Poquoson for 23 years, I prided myself on working with everyone to put politics aside and get the job done, and Congress needs to do the same right now,” he said. “I applaud Congresswoman Kiggans and Congressman Wittman for fighting for the brave military men and women who serve our country during these times with a common-sense bill to continue paying the members of the military during the shutdown.”
The looming shutdown deadline has caused a GOP split in Virginia’s congressional delegation.
Kiggans, a first-term member who represents a swing district around Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads, has resisted the shutdown push and said her party needs to show it can govern.
“Governing is not a game. Washington’s political theatre hurts the people I’ve been elected to serve and proves how important it is to elect commonsense conservative leaders who understand what it means to lead by example,” she said in an emailed statement, adding: “I believed this helped Republicans across the country take back the House in 2022. All eyes are on Virginia again as we head into state elections this year.”
Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., is part of a small but powerful group of ultraconservatives pushing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to force a shutdown unless Democrats accede to major concessions on spending cuts and other conservative priorities. Hanging over McCarthy is the threat that these GOP lawmakers will oust him if he cuts a deal with Democrats.
“We expect to hold the speaker accountable to pass bills with Republican votes that advance Republican priorities and cut our spending,” he said in an interview.
Virginia statehouse 'very on the edge'
Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., said Virginia is uniquely sensitive — and reactive — to actions by Congress, predicting that a shutdown would have “a material impact” on the commonwealth’s elections and could help Democrats flip the GOP’s narrow state House majority.
“It’s very on the edge,” he said.
Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., said that his northern Virginia district probably has more federal workers than any other in the country and that they’re being “held hostage by a small group of people in the Freedom Caucus.” He said Virginia Democratic candidates he’s talked to “just can’t see a shutdown happening, because it would so disadvantage the Youngkin base.”
“The only people you can blame are Republicans,” he said. “And we will if that happens.”
