WASHINGTON — The U.S. government is shut down, and Americans are more inclined to blame President Donald Trump and Republicans for it, according to four independent, national polls conducted just before or during the funding lapse.
But there is fluidity in the political fight, as the surveys show a significant share of voters aren't sure who to blame. The shutdown is only in its second day, as Republicans and Democrats sharpen their messages, and it's not clear how long the impasse will last.
A Washington Post poll conducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that 47% of U.S. adults blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blame Democrats and 23% said they're not sure.
The survey found that independents blamed Trump and Republicans over Democrats by a wide margin of 50% to 22%. And one-third of Republicans were either unsure who to blame (25%) or blamed their party (8%).
A New York Times/Siena poll taken in late September found that blaming both sides equally for a shutdown was the most popular answer, chosen by 33% of registered voters. Another 26% would blame Trump and Republicans, while 19% would blame Democrats, and 21% said they hadn't heard enough to say.
A poll by Marist, PBS News and NPR in late September found that 38% would blame Republicans, while 27% said they'd blame Democrats. Another 31% said they'd blame both parties equally, and 5% said they'd blame neither or were unsure who was at fault.
In a Morning Consult poll taken in late September, 45% of registered voters said they'd blame Republicans in Congress for a shutdown, while 32% said they'd blame Democrats. Another 16% had no opinion, while 7% chose "other." Independents blamed Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 41% to 24%.
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The shutdown began at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1 after Congress and Trump failed to reach a deal to fund the government. Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress, but they need 60 votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill, and they only control 53 seats. That means they need Democratic votes on any measure to reopen the government.
In exchange for their votes, Democrats have demanded an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act funds, a repeal of the Medicaid cuts and changes in Trump's "big, beautiful bill" and assurances that Trump won't unilaterally withhold money directed by Congress in a government funding law as his administration has done a handful of times in recent months.
Republicans say they won't grant any concessions to Democrats simply to keep the government open. They're willing to negotiate on the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, which will cause health insurance premiums to skyrocket if they are not renewed — but only once the government is funded, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said. Many GOP lawmakers want the subsidies to end entirely, however.
Polling on the health care subsidies is sparse at the moment, but the Washington Post survey found that 71% of U.S. adults want the ACA subsidies to be extended, while 29% said they should expire on schedule at the end of this year.
Both parties appear dug in on the shutdown. A clear majority of poll respondents who want to extend the subsidies said Congress should demand that extension, even if it forces the shutdown to drag on, while a clear majority of those who want the subsidies to expire also wanted their side to stick to that demand, even if it prolongs a shutdown.
