WASHINGTON — Democrats are bracing for the possible retirement of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, one of the party’s most powerful, popular and effective leaders, who served as chief antagonist to President Donald Trump during his first term and has quietly counseled Democrats as they take on Trump in his second term.
She is expected to make an announcement about her future after Tuesday’s elections, when voters will consider a ballot measure, known as “Proposition 50,” that would redraw the state’s congressional lines. Pelosi is a prominent proponent of the plan, which Democrats hope would net them several seats in next year’s midterm elections.
Multiple Democratic sources in her home state and in Congress told NBC News they believe the 85-year-old California Democrat will choose not to seek re-election in 2026 after nearly four decades representing her San Francisco-based district.
“I wish she would stay for 10 more years,” said one House Democrat from California. “I think she’s out. She’s going to go out with Prop 50 overwhelmingly passing, and what a crowning achievement for her to do that.”
Her departure — if it happens — would end an era in Congress, where her unparalleled skills as a legislative strategist, vote counter and fundraiser helped make Pelosi the first woman to win the speaker’s gavel, and it would touch off a more furious scramble for her coveted House seat.
Fueling speculation that she might retire, Pelosi has made no outward move to counter two Democrats who have entered the district’s primary, despite having raised more than $2 million this election cycle so far and sitting on a $1.5 million war chest, according to campaign records. Those Democrats, who would face Pelosi if she decides to fight for another term, are state Sen. Scott Wiener, and wealthy former tech executive Saikat Chakrabarti, who previously served as chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
Pelosi has dropped hints she might be heading out. At a recent California Democratic delegation meeting on Capitol Hill, she told colleagues she looks forward to watching Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., sworn in as the first Black speaker of the House — if she’s still allowed on the floor, she joked, according to a source in the room.
“I think she’s preparing to exit the stage,” another source, a House Democratic leadership aide, said of Pelosi. “We will not fully appreciate the time we have spent with her” until she’s gone.
In political circles in the Bay Area, the tea leaves increasingly point to her standing down, according to a Democratic elected official in the region. “Most people think it is highly unlikely that she will run for another term,” this official said.
Pelosi spokesman Ian Krager declined to say whether she will seek re-election to a 20th full term in Congress, but dismissed the comments from Democrats as "pure speculation."
“Speaker Pelosi is fully focused on her mission to win the Yes on 50 special election in California on Tuesday,” Krager said, referring to the slogan used by ballot-initiative supporters. “She urges all Californians to join in that mission on the path to taking back the House for Democrats.”
After this story published, Krager wrote on X: "Any discussion of her future plans beyond that mission is pure speculation." Then, he posted the famous proverb: "Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.”
The other sources requested anonymity to speak about a sensitive matter, underscoring the sway Pelosi still holds in Democratic politics. But Democrats are not unanimous in the opinion that she’s leaving.
“My sense is she runs again for many reasons. She should hang it up, but I think she thinks the caucus needs her,” said one former Democratic leadership aide. “I also think she wants to be part of history if Leader Jeffries rises to become the first Black speaker of the House after the midterm election. She wants to be seen as part of that special moment.”
In an interview last month with the San Francisco Examiner, Pelosi said she won’t decide whether she’ll run for re-election until after Tuesday’s election, where California voters will decide the fate of Prop 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democrats’ plan to redraw the Golden State’s congressional districts to gain more seats for the party. It’s a direct response to Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts in Texas and other red states.
She said Prop 50 is her No. 1 priority at the moment.
“Here’s the thing: We must win the House. If you talk about ‘no kings,’ we must win the House to put a stop to this. We won’t be able to get many things done, but we’ll be able to stop a lot of the poison that he’s putting there, and the best antidote to poison is to win the election,” she told the Examiner.
“There’s a lot riding on this because this is the path to our winning the House,” Pelosi continued. “We will win the House regardless, but winning it big, and we want to win Nov. 4 big.”
During her two decades as House Democratic leader — from 2002 to 2022 — Pelosi ruled her caucus with a velvet glove. She could be tough: One of her favorite sayings was, “I eat nails for breakfast.”
But she knew how to wield both sticks and carrots. When then-Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, considered an insurgent challenge to Pelosi for speaker in 2018, Pelosi invited Fudge into her office for a private meeting, warned her about all of the fundraising and travel the job required and offered her a post chairing a subcommittee focused on elections and voting rights. Fudge abandoned her challenge and endorsed Pelosi.
Colleagues say Pelosi hasn’t shared her plans with them, but they hailed her as a historic figure — she was the first female speaker of the House and served in the top job twice — who made her mark on Congress and the country.
“Nancy Pelosi is a stateswoman who, as they say about Lincoln, belongs to the ages,” said progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., a fellow Bay Area Democrat. “Generations to come will be reading about her contributions to America.”
Ashley Etienne, who previously served as communications director to both Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris, said she hasn’t spoken to the former speaker about her future plans. She praised Pelosi for deftly leading the opposition to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Trump, but also for being a pragmatist who hammered out deals with them “in the interest of the nation.”
Pelosi teamed with Bush on the 2008 bank bailout, clean energy and AIDS relief, and backed the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement signed into law by Trump.
“Pelosi’s loss is bigger than even to the Democratic Party; it’s a loss to the institution. She’s an object lesson. No matter which side of the political aisle you’re on, if you’re smart, you’re taking copious notes,” said Etienne, who led impeachment messaging for Pelosi and the Democrats during Trump’s first term.
“She’s not just redefined the speakership, but she’s also demonstrated what real sound, principled leadership looks like, man or woman, but definitely as a woman,” she added. “Pelosi is a beast. She’s the best to ever do it, the most successful speaker in American history.”
But Pelosi angered some fellow Democrats, particularly those most loyal to then-President Joe Biden, when she put public and private pressure on him to relinquish the party’s nomination following a disastrous debate performance against Trump.
And though she represents a district that has historically been among the most liberal in the country, Pelosi has at times battled the progressive wing of her caucus in Congress in the nearly quarter century since she first won a spot in Democratic leadership. Those fights have included scrapes with Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the progressive “Squad.”
It’s not yet clear how a race featuring Chakrabarti, Wiener, Pelosi and perhaps others would play out, but there’s a potential parallel from recent political history that she would no doubt like to avoid.
In 2018, Ocasio-Cortez knocked out Rep. Joe Crowley, D-N.Y., then a rising star and seen as a possible successor to Pelosi, in a primary. Ocasio-Cortez portrayed Crowley as too absent from the district and too moderate for its voters.
