American voters’ feelings on Israel and the Palestinian territories have shifted dramatically in recent years, in a sea change that is transforming the Democratic Party and shaping its primaries.
A new NBC News poll underscores the depths of the shift. More registered voters view Israel negatively than positively, a change from a few years ago. The change has been especially pronounced among independents and Democrats, fueling divided congressional primaries in 2026 and potentially shaping the party’s 2028 presidential contest.
When asked whether their sympathies lie more with Israelis or Palestinians, 40% of registered voters say they side more with the Israelis, while 39% choose the Palestinians. The split stood at 45% for Israelis and 13% for Palestinians when NBC News asked the question more than a decade ago, in November 2013.
But while two-thirds of Republicans side with the Israelis, similar to 2013, two-thirds of Democrats now side with the Palestinians.
The data also outlines major changes in how many of those groups view Israel and a Palestinian state generally. Now, almost 60% of Democrats and almost 50% of independents view Israel negatively, a change from when NBC News last asked this question in November 2023, shortly after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Those shifts contributed to the plurality negative view on Israel in the latest survey.
Those groups have also shifted toward viewing the Palestinian territories more favorably than they did before.
The poll was conducted from Feb. 27 to March 3, as Israel and the U.S. began the current war against Iran but before an attack last week on a Michigan synagogue, which the FBI called a “targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.”
Some of the most notable movement has occurred among young registered voters, the survey shows. They were already skeptical of Israel in 2023, when 26% of voters under 35 years old viewed the nation positively and 37% viewed it negatively. Now, the new data shows almost two-thirds of these voters view Israel negatively, and 6 in 10 say they sympathize more with Palestinians over Israelis.
These shifts are fueling a running debate among Democrats, from their congressional caucuses to key primary elections where candidates are shaping the future of the party. And it’s happening as pro-Israel groups spend millions to try to shape the party — spending that has inflamed progressives who are furious to see the big money flowing into so many races.
“This is unrecognizable in terms of where America was, and the Democratic Party was, for a 20-, 30-year history,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, whose firm, Public Opinion Strategies, conducted the poll along with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and Hart Research Associates.
And, McIntuff noted, it means that the 2028 Democratic presidential primary is “going to be fought on very, very different terrain in regards to the issue of Israel” than any contest that preceded it.
Hamas’ October 2023 attack on Israel and the ensuing Israeli military campaign in Gaza is at the center of this shift. Some Democrats and pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee argue the attack by Hamas, in which about 1,200 people were killed and another 251 were captured, underscored existential threats faced by Israel and demanded unwavering support from the U.S. And they point to a recent rise in antisemitic attacks, as well as antisemitic comments from prominent personalities on both the left and right, as more reasons why they see standing up for Israel as more important than ever.
“I’m proud to stand with our Jewish brothers and sisters and support Israel, particularly in a time that has been very tumultuous. When we see what has happened in the last few years, it’s even more apropos for us to stand with our friends and one of our greatest allies,” Democratic Rep. Wesley Bell of Missouri said in a video posted to social media by AIPAC this week.
Bell won his seat in Congress in 2024 after unseating progressive Rep. Cori Bush in a Democratic primary — a challenge supported by millions of dollars from United Democracy Project, a super PAC funded by and aligned with AIPAC.
But other Democrats, especially progressives, have become increasingly critical of the Israeli government, particularly its handling of a war that has decimated Gaza and killed more than 72,000 people, according to health officials there. Many have described Israel’s campaign as a genocide, and dozens of Democratic members of Congress support restrictions on American arms sales to Israel.
Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, told NBC News that the years since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign marked a turning point for many voters.
“Israel may have had major military success in its war against Hamas, but its actions have badly damaged its standing among the American people,” he said.
Big spending on the issue
With public opinion moving in their direction, progressive candidates are using the issue to put pressure on Democratic primary opponents.
The most recent example came in North Carolina, where Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam fell just short of toppling Rep. Valerie Foushee in a primary earlier this month. Allam and her allies were furious critics of Foushee on the issue, pointing to how pro-Israel groups spent millions to help elect her in 2022, when she first defeated Allam in a race for a then-open seat.
Foushee got important financial support from United Democracy Project in that 2022 campaign. Last month, though, she told NBC News in a statement that she would no longer accept donations from AIPAC, adding that she “co-sponsored legislation to block arms sales to Israel because it is clear to me and my constituents that the Netanyahu government’s indiscriminate killing of innocent Palestinians cannot continue.”
A few weeks earlier, United Democracy Project blanketed a New Jersey district with special-election ads attacking a former congressman who had questioned unconditional support for Israel. But that spending backfired, helping drag down former Rep. Tom Malinowski just enough to pave the way for a narrow Democratic primary win by progressive activist Analilia Mejia, who has been vocal in her criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza.
AIPAC and UDP, which did not comment for this story, spent more than $100 million on federal races in the previous two election cycles, notching key victories in a handful of Democratic primaries, including Bell’s in Missouri. UDP has amassed $96 million to spend ahead of this election cycle, and AIPAC said in a statement this week that “early primary results demonstrate that support for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship remains both good policy and good politics.”
UDP’s massive spending in races like those has frustrated progressives, who point to millions in donations to the group from Republican donors, arguing the super PAC is using GOP money to work against the will of Democratic primary voters.
“What was cynically used to divide our party two cycles ago has become the only position that is politically sustainable, and the candidates and institutions who get there first will define the next generation of Democratic leadership,” American Priorities, a super PAC founded as an ideological counterweight to AIPAC’s spending in Democratic primaries, wrote in a memo after primaries in North Carolina and Texas earlier this month.
Upcoming primaries
These tensions are colliding in Chicago, where retirements across a spate of safe Democratic districts have created a power vacuum ahead of the March 17 primaries. That vacuum has been filled by large and competitive primary fields and raucous debates over the future of the Democratic Party and its policy platform — including Israel policy.
United Democracy Project has spent more than $5 million to boost Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin’s bid to replace retiring Rep. Danny Davis. And two anonymously funded groups spending millions of dollars to boost other candidates prompted progressive accusations, without direct evidence, that AIPAC was waging a secret war against their candidates.
In one district, Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who is Jewish and whose relatives survived the Holocaust, has criticized Israel’s government and called for a Palestinian state while also supporting what he calls the “special relationship” between the U.S. and Israel. Fellow progressive Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian American, has called Israel’s conduct in Gaza a genocide and wants restrictions on U.S. military aid. State Rep. Laura Fine, who is Jewish and has been backed by one of the anonymously funded super PACs, has defended Israel and opposed “additional conditions on aid to Israel” while also calling for humanitarian support for people in Gaza. Elect Chicago Women, a mysterious group backing Fine, has spent almost $6 million in the race.
Biss is supported by Rep. Jan Schakowsky, whose retirement triggered the open race. The congresswoman has invoked rumors AIPAC may be behind Elect Chicago Women’s spending in a recent statement, saying that “Illinois deserves leaders who put voters first, not AIPAC or out-of-state Trump donors.”
In another race, former Rep. Melissa Bean is backed by Democratic Majority for Israel, while tech consultant Junaid Ahmed — who has accused Israel of genocide and called for ending all U.S. military aid to the country — has been endorsed by prominent progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Affordable Chicago Now, the other mysteriously funded group, has spent almost $4 million supporting Bean.
And in yet another open seat, Affordable Chicago Now has spent more than $4 million to boost Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller.
The same divides aren’t animating primaries on the Republican side, where public sentiment on the issue hasn’t moved nearly as much in recent years.
Israel’s public image took a slight hit with Republicans between 2023 and 2026 in NBC News polling, with its positive rating declining from 63% to 54%. But two-thirds of Republicans say their sympathies lie more with Israelis than with Palestinians, about the same as when the war in Gaza started.
Independents have moved significantly on the poll questions, too. While 40% of independents had a positive view of Israel in NBC News polling from November 2023, just 21% do now. Negative ratings have jumped too, from 22% in 2023 to 48% now.
That’s why Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, said it’s an issue he’s watching among “non-Republicans,” a category that captures independents as well.
“Candidates are having to navigate this issue in their views on Israel in a way that they just haven’t in prior elections,” he added.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Feb. 27-March 3 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
CORRECTION (March 16, 2026, 2:04 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article transposed one finding of the survey. Among registered voters, 40% sympathize more with the Israelis and 39% sympathize more with the Palestinians, not the other way around.
