FORT WORTH, Texas — Sen. John Cornyn is spending the home stretch of his primary warning Texas Republicans that if he loses the contest to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, GOP candidates up and down the ballot in November will pay a steep price.
“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre, and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn told a group of supporters gathered at the Fort Worth Police Association on Wednesday afternoon, referring to statewide elections.
“I know people assume that Texas is a red state, will always be a red state, but when you nominate a flawed individual with the sort of political baggage that Ken Paxton has, you are risking all that,” Cornyn said. “You’re risking the United States Senate seat. You’re risking President [Donald] Trump’s agenda to resume two years in office, and you are risking everybody else on the ballot below the Senate race.”
The potential impact on other Republicans on the ballot is a key part of Cornyn’s closing message ahead of his March 3 primary against Paxton and GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt. With three high-profile candidates vying for the Republican Senate nomination, it’s unlikely anyone will win a majority of the vote, meaning the primary is expected to head to a runoff on May 26.
He delivered the same message to a group of a few dozen supporters gathered Tuesday at Serranos Cocina y Cantina in Austin that Paxton’s nomination will lead to “an Election Day massacre” for the GOP.
“Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck,” Cornyn said, alluding to Paxton controversies including his divorce and the allegations of bribery that led to his impeachment by the state House in 2023, though the state Senate ultimately acquitted Paxton.
Paxton, meanwhile, has suggested he can energize core Trump supporters who have been less likely to turn out when the president is not on the ballot.
“Ensuring that low-propensity America First voters are motivated to show up in November is critical to Republicans’ success in 2026, and John Cornyn is the single worst person in Texas to accomplish that,” Paxton said in a Feb. 9 statement.
Paxton pointed to a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll that tested hypothetical general election matchups and found both Cornyn and Paxton slightly ahead of the Democrats, but within the survey’s margin of error. The poll also found Republican voters viewed Paxton more favorably than Cornyn.
Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement to NBC News that Texans view Paxton as “a conservative warrior who will always fight for us and our freedoms, even in the face of the Left trying to tear him down. Texans also know that John Cornyn is just like every other career politician who talks tough during election season, but then does the exact opposite in D.C. and betrays Texas by repeatedly pushing gun control and amnesty.”
Asked about Paxton’s case that he can turn out infrequent Trump voters, Cornyn said on Tuesday that the attorney general was “living in a fantasy” and that Paxton would be a “dead weight” around other Republican candidates. Cornyn said independents, Democrats and “many Republicans” would not vote for Paxton “because of his blatant record of corruption.”
“So I understand him trying to put the best spin on his argument, but it’s simply not true,” Cornyn continued.
Cornyn was talking about voters like Mike Lopez, a 60-year-old small business owner who cast his primary ballot for the four-term senator in Austin on Tuesday. Lopez, who identifies as an independent, said he would not support Paxton if he is the GOP nominee in November, and he’d consider backing state Rep. James Talarico if he wins the Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
“He’s just a crook,” Lopez said of Paxton. “That’s it. I mean, he’s just a basic criminal that got his hands in the cookie jar and got caught. So that’s not representative of being a Republican or being conservative.”
Cornyn also noted that Trump is particularly invested in holding onto the House and winning the five House seats in Texas that Republicans in the legislature redrew in the GOP’s favor last year. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the House.
“I know they’re important to President Trump, because he talks about it all the time,” Cornyn said of the Texas congressional districts. “He does not want to lose the majority in the House of Representatives. First, because we want to continue to pass good, solid legislation and pass President Trump’s agenda. But he doesn’t want to get impeached for a third time, which is what will happen if the Democrats get control.”
That argument has not convinced Trump to jump into the race so far. The president has stayed neutral in the primary despite months of pressure from Cornyn and Senate GOP leaders to back the four-term senator.
“I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One this week. Trump went on to say Cornyn is “a good man.”
“I like all three of them, actually, I like all three. Those are the toughest races. They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one. So we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump said.
A source familiar with Trump’s thinking on the race said he is unlikely to endorse a candidate in the primary runoff. The source noted the president makes endorsement decisions based on a number of factors, including electability, his personal connection with the candidate, loyalty and a gut feeling, and in this case, Trump’s gut feeling is off and he is inclined to stay out of the race.
It’s also not clear yet if Cornyn’s case will be enough for a strong showing on March 3, or to win a May runoff.
It’s not the first time in recent years Cornyn has brought up electability ahead of a big election. Cornyn was one of the prominent Republicans who also raised questions about Trump’s electability ahead of the 2024 election.
“I think President Trump’s time has passed him by,” Cornyn said in 2023. “And I think what’s the most important thing for me is that we have a candidate who can actually win.
Asked on Wednesday why he believes the case that Paxton isn’t electable will resonate with GOP primary voters who supported Trump despite electability concerns, Cornyn told NBC News after the Fort Worth event, “Well, that’s the whole point about elections, is to get elected.”
“The point I’m trying to make is this really, this isn’t just about me,” Cornyn added. “This is about Republicans up and down the ticket, and President Trump’s second term agenda. I think it would not be good, and I’m sure the president would agree, to lose a state and a Senate seat that he depends on as much as Texas.”
