The Democratic primary race to fill a vacant, safely blue House seat in New Jersey is too close to call Thursday night, NBC News projects.
The campaign between progressive activist Analilia Mejia and former Rep. Tom Malinowski turned into an expensive competition between interest groups, political figures and cash-flush super PACs hoping to shape the future of the Democratic Party one district at a time.
Mejia and Malinowski are locked in a tight race for the nomination in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District. Mejia had 28.7% of the vote to Malinowski's 28.0% with 91% of the expected vote counted late Thursday.
The Democratic winner is set to face Republican Joe Hathaway, who is unopposed for his nomination, in an April 16 general election.
But first, Democrats have to resolve their primary to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress. The race attracted 11 candidates from across the ideological spectrum and various levels of politics, including an ex-lieutenant governor and a handful of local politicians.
The primary also saw nearly $6 million of spending from outside groups focused on Israel, immigration and other issues, plus numerous endorsements from prominent figures with an interest in who will next represent this slice of North Jersey.
The primary winner could potentially represent this district, which Kamala Harris carried by 9 points in 2024, for as long as they want, giving power to one faction or another of the Democratic caucus in the House. The winner could eventually run for higher office in the future, too, like Sherrill.
The same dynamics are set to shape dozens of open primaries throughout the country this midterm election year. For now, voters in the district have been excited to have their say, said Mara Novak and Judy Kelly, the co-executive directors of grassroots group NJ 11th For Change.
“I think in our district specifically, and in a timeframe that feels pretty bleak on the national stage, that folks here are like, ‘Wait a minute. We can elect somebody who does reflect us,’” Kelly said.
Malinowski has been at the center of much of the advertising, both for and against.
United Democracy Project, a super PAC aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent almost $2.3 million on television and digital ads, mailers and phone banking to oppose Malinowski, a longtime supporter of Israel and former recipient of money from AIPAC, according to data from the Federal Election Commission.
A UDP spokesperson told The New York Times that the group opposes Malinowski because he supports conditions on U.S. aid for Israel. But the advertising is focused on Immigration and Customs Enforcement, criticizing Malinowski for voting to fund the agency as part of a bipartisan, governmentwide spending bill in 2019. Malinowski said Tuesday he would oppose the Department of Homeland Security funding bill that is now before the Senate.
Essex County commissioner Brendan Gill piled on in an ad accusing Malinowski of profiting off the Covid pandemic.
Malinowski has received a more than $700,000 boost from The 218 Project super PAC and has raised on his own more than $1.6 million, more than any other candidate.
The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association’s PAC has also spent more than $1.6 million in advertising to support former New Jersey Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. Way has lagged behind opponents in fundraising.
The ads paint her as the “proven way to beat Trump,” a reference to her legal battles with the president when she was New Jersey’s secretary of state. The Trump campaign sued Way in 2020, seeking to block her from sending mail ballots to every registered voter in New Jersey, but Way and the state won in federal court.
Way has also received a $350,000 boost from the mysterious Article One Inc. super PAC, which was formed a little more than a week ago and has only received a single donation from the Guzman Foundation. The super PAC is affiliated with a joint fundraising committee called Article One Victory, which is fully funded by the billionaire financier Robert Granieri.
Meanwhile, the veterans-focused PAC VoteVets on Tuesday unleashed a $300,000 ad campaign in support of Army veteran Zach Beecher, according to AdImpact. The ad promotes him as a problem-solver who will oppose Trump’s tariffs and foreign military actions.
The race has seen a slew of endorsements from state and national figures. Former Gov. Phil Murphy endorsed Gill, talking up his commitment to protecting freedoms and lowering costs, while Sen. Andy Kim is backing Malinowski and touting his two previous terms in Congress. Mejia earned the backing of Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
“She’s a great organizer, and in Washington right now we don’t just need Democrats, we need progressive Democrats who are prepared to stand up and fight,” Sanders said of Mejia.
Sherrill has not picked sides in the primary to succeed her.
National issues like Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis are important to 11th District voters, but so are local issues such as the Gateway Tunnel that would expand transportation between Newark, New Jersey, and New York City. The Trump administration in October paused funding for the tunnel project, and money will run out Friday, the day after the special primary.
Mejia, a former staffer for Sanders, rallied with the Vermont senator last month for his “Fighting Oligarchy” tour.
One question looming over the primary is whose endorsement — a national figure or a New Jerseyan — matters more to 11th District voters, Kelly and Novak said.
“I’ve given up trying to predict,” Novak told NBC News, adding that the district is so diverse that Sanders’ endorsement might carry more weight in one town, while Murphy’s or Kim’s are more important in another.
The district’s Democratic committees in Essex, Morris and Passaic counties all endorsed different candidate, as well. LeRoy J. Jones Jr., who chairs both the New Jersey Democratic Party and the Essex County party, told NBC News that the three county committees likely made their endorsement choices based on familiarity, backing the candidate most present in their county.
“People like to gravitate to folks from their own community, and I think that’s what happened in that scenario,” Jones said.
Darcy Draeger, chair of the Morris County Democratic Committee, told NBC News that the party organization was looking for a candidate who would understand the needs of the district and be present in the community, which led the MCDC to endorse Malinowski.
Malinowski previously represented parts of Morris County, which makes up the majority of the 11th District, something Draeger said may give him an advantage.
“He is someone who they’ve known since 2018, who they have seen run for office before, and who they have really approved of his actions in Congress,” Draeger said. “In a race that has this many candidates across such a short time frame, I think that those things could potentially be a predictor of success.”
Draeger said Sherrill, a centrist Democrat, was in line with the “tone and goals” of the district’s voters. She said a candidate who aligns closest with Sherrill’s brand of politics is likely to have an edge on the others.
“I’m not entirely sure who will triumph, but I would not be surprised if it was someone who trended more toward the Mikie wing of the party than the progressive wing of the party,” Draeger said. “But I’ll say it just depends on what candidate is able to motivate their voter base to turn out on the 5th.”
