Democrat Chedrick Greene has won a special state Senate election in Michigan, NBC News projects, ensuring his party will keep control of the closely divided chamber in a key battleground state.
Greene’s win was also in a key area of that swing state — a district that's been close in every recent presidential campaign and is full of blue-collar voters that President Donald Trump has been winning in recent years.
“It looks like America. It looks like Michigan,” state Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel said of the 35th District. “If you can win here, you can win anywhere in America and anywhere in Michigan”
A Marine veteran and firefighter, Greene defeated Republican Jason Tunney, a former prosecutor, in the special election to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who resigned from the state Senate after she was elected to Congress in 2024.
And Greene continues a special election trend during President Donald Trump’s second term of Democrats outperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris' showing in the 2024 presidential race.
With 94% of the expected vote in, Greene led Tunney by more than 19 points in Michigan’s 35th Senate District, which is in the Saginaw Bay area. In 2024, Harris won the district by just over 1,000 votes, or 50.4% to Trump’s 49.6%.
Greene’s victory also means Democrats will hold a 20-18 majority in the Senate. Democrats also control the governorship in Michigan, a key battleground state, while Republicans have a 58-52 edge in the state House.
A resounding victory in this district is an especially welcome sign for Democrats ahead of November's midterm elections, since this area of the state is at the heart of Trump's blue-collar coalition.
The district includes parts of Saginaw, Midland and Bay Counties, which are largely white and working-class, though Saginaw City has a sizable Black population. Between one-fifth and one-third of adults in these counties have college degrees. The region also encompasses manufacturing and agricultural industries.
Saginaw County in particular has reflected electoral shifts in the Trump era. The county swung more than 10 points towards the GOP when Trump first ran for president in 2016, and he then narrowly lost it in 2020.
But Trump carried Saginaw County by 3 points in 2024, as he went on to win Michigan and the presidential race.
The 35th District itself has been evenly divided in recent presidential elections, with Harris, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton each winning it by just over 50% of the vote, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis of election results.
Those wins were driven largely by carrying the Saginaw parts of the district. But on Tuesday, Greene easily won the Bay and Midland parts of the district, too.
Winning all three counties in the district "really does show that much more is possible when you look at the electoral map this election cycle," Hertel told NBC News, noting that the victory suggests gains in the district's urban, rural and suburban areas.
Michigan GOP Chairman Jim Runestad said in a statement Tuesday night that Republicans were outspent in the race, adding, "recent history tells us that there is little correlation between special elections and General Election Day.
Hertel dismissed the GOP's argument that it can be difficult to extrapolate November results from what happens in special election, which typically see much lower turnout.
"If you lose you have to come up with an excuse," Hertel said.
The swingy area attracted some high-profile members of both parties to the district ahead of Tuesday's election.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer headlined a rally for Greene last week, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a Michigan resident, also recently campaigned with Greene. Tunney hit the campaign trail with GOP Rep. John James, who is running for governor.
Greene focused on an economic message in his campaign, noting in one campaign ad that he is focused on vocational training for students who are not going to college. He also stressed his military service.
Tunney, meanwhile, highlighted his working-class roots, with one campaign ad saying he would "fight to make sure that [American] dream is still within reach for everyone."
Democrats credited Greene's focus on economic issues and his background for his win in the district, which has sizable numbers of union members and veterans.
Greene campaign spokeswoman Carol Sullivan noted that the campaign's mantra was "affordable, safe and free." She said the campaign heard frustrations with high prices and the Trump administration's immigration crackdown.
"They’re not getting what they thought they voted for,” Sullivan said of Trump voters in the district.
