Democrat Alex Holladay prevailed in a special election on Tuesday for a state legislative seat in Arkansas, marking the ninth time since President Donald Trump took office last year that the party has flipped control of a state legislative seat in a special election.
In that same time, Republicans have not flipped a single state seat controlled by Democrats.
Holladay, a health care administrator, defeated Republican businessman Bo Renshaw in a race to replace state Rep. Carlton Wing, a Republican who defeated Holladay by 2 points in 2024. Arkansas’ 70th District is just north of Little Rock.
In a statement, Holladay said he learned a lot from his previous loss.
“Mainly, it taught us that North Little Rock and Sherwood are primed for change,” he said. “Thousands of people told us that year that they were sick and tired of single-party GOP rule in Arkansas … The People are ready to hold our state’s leaders accountable, and that’s what this election was about.”
Holladay’s victory came after Democrats, since the start of 2025, have flipped Republican-held seats in special elections in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Georgia and Texas. When adding in the flips from last fall’s off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats have flipped 27 total seats controlled by Republicans, while Republicans are still searching for their first flip, according to data compiled by the The Downballot.
Democrats say the trend portends well for them ahead of this year’s midterm elections, particularly as they have exceeded expectations in off-cycle contests while Republican turnout has proven strongest in presidential years. This is at least in part due to the Democratic coalition being increasingly made up of high-engagement, high-propensity voters, while Republicans have become the coalition of the less engaged.
That dynamic has had Republicans searching for answers on how to get their coalition to the polls without Trump on the ballot, a problem they’ve been trying to solve for years.
The elections have also come as polling has shown voters expressing dismay or skepticism with Trump’s handling of the economy and foreign affairs.
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said a common thread between the candidates who have been able to flip Republican-held seats in these special elections is that “they are not running on a sole anti-Trump agenda.”
“They’re looking for a path forward,” she said, adding, “The other through-line is that under no stretch of the imagination is the unpopularity of this Republican Party solely about Democratic voters and blue states.”
The Republican State Leadership Committee, which works to elect down-ballot Republicans, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A Republican operative, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said it’s always a struggle to get low-propensity Trump voters out to special and off-year elections. This person said strategists and candidates need to lock in on local issues that could animate voters to go to the polls.
“Honestly, I think messaging has gotten stale,” this person said. “GOP strategists have gotten so used to just saying ‘Something, something Trump, something, something Border.’ People aren’t giving folks compelling reasons to get out and vote, especially in specials.”
In a concession statement, Renshaw said Republican turnout was unusually lower than expected and that he believed Republican turnout will be much stronger in November.
“I’d rather be us than them,” Williams said in looking ahead to November, adding that the environment is shaping up to be positive for Democrats. “We also know that we have to do the work. We’re not winning these elections because we’re sitting on the sidelines and letting the environment take hold.”
