LAS VEGAS — Montana Sen. Steve Daines came to Vegas with an ask: The chair of the Senate GOP campaign arm wants more money to turn the chamber red.
“We’ve got a great map, the best map in a decade,” Daines told a crowd of hundreds at the Republican Jewish Coalition Summit, an annual gathering of Jewish community leaders, donors and GOP politicians.
“Kamala Harris can’t do much of anything well [but] they do know how to raise money,” said Daines. “We need your help to close the fundraising gap,” he added, asking for donations.
Talking to reporters after his speech, Daines broke down the Senate map as he sees it and described the hurdle standing between Republicans and victory.
“I am concerned,” admitted Daines during a roundtable with the press in Vegas. “We have more states in play than resources to cover them,” he added simply.
Senate Democratic candidates have had a fundraising advantage over their GOP opponents throughout the election cycle, but a wave of cash that came with Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket is flowing to down-ballot races, too. Earlier this week, the Harris campaign transferred $10 million to Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
Even with that cash, Democrats are facing a challenging Senate map as they try to defend their slim two-seat majority. Republicans need to net just two seats to cement the majority, or one seat if former President Donald Trump wins the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
Republicans’ best pickup opportunities are in three GOP-leaning states. In West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, every statewide elected official is a Republican — except for the Democratic senators whose seats are up this year. In those states, Daines projected confidence, citing diminished ticket-splitting in U.S. elections.
West Virginia, a state that Trump won with about 68% of the vote in 2016 and 2020, is already in the bag, Daines believes. Democrats have also acknowledged the race is no longer in play with Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin retiring. Gov. Jim Justice, who made waves at the Republican National Convention by giving his speech alongside his dog, is expected to win.
Daines believes Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana are vulnerable to an increasingly polarized electorate, which has been splitting their votes between Republicans and Democrats less and less each cycle.
“It’s becoming increasingly more of a red jersey, blue jersey kind of result,” said Daines on the demise of ticket-splitting. “If that trend continues, with Trump winning significant margins in these three red states, it becomes difficult for Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown to win the races.”
Daines is also eyeing pickups in three states where Democratic incumbents are retiring: Maryland, Michigan and Arizona, though the Grand Canyon State’s retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
In Maryland, Daines acknowledged that the ticket-splitting trend will be a challenge for Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, but he is also optimistic that Hogan’s qualities could help him overcome that barrier.
Daines believes the fate of former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Kari Lake in Arizona will be closely tied to the outcome of the presidential race.
“President Trump’s outcome in Michigan — I think those will be fairly, fairly close to Trump’s number,” said Daines. For Lake in Arizona, Daines believes her victory will be contingent on a slightly larger margin of victory for Trump. “Lake’s path to victory will be with President Trump, winning Arizona by probably 2, 3, even 4 points,” said Daines. “We’ll see where Arizona goes.”
Daines also believes Republicans can pick up seats in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, which are also presidential battlegrounds. In each of those states, Daines also described the races coming down to razor-thin margins in races closely tied to Trump’s fate.
Even with all these pickup opportunities, Daines is keeping expectations low. “If anybody asks me, what’s my number going to be, I’ll tell you the majority is 51,” he said. “I won’t project any beyond that.”
David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told NBC News in a statement Friday that Democrats "are in the strongest possible position to defend our majority because we have better candidates in every battleground state."
"We have battle-tested incumbents, formidable recruits, and a winning message — while Republican Senate candidates are plagued by daily revelations about their lies, financial scandals, and toxic policy agenda," he added.
