Inside the poll numbers: Which key groups have moved — and which ones haven't — since Biden's exit

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, 49%-44%, in the new national NBC News poll.

While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, it does represent a shift from the last NBC News survey, when President Joe Biden was still in the 2024 presidential contest. In that July poll, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 points, 45% to 43%.

The new poll shows the key voting blocs that have moved — and those that haven’t really budged — since Biden’s exit.

The biggest change is among young voters ages 18 to 34, who were essentially split between Biden and Trump in July but who now back Harris by 23 points, 57%-34%.

The share of Black voters supporting the Democratic ticket has also increased, from Biden’s 57-point advantage in July to a 78-point lead for Harris in this new poll.

Additionally, Harris’ advantage with female voters (a 21-point lead) is larger than Biden’s edge was (11 points).

But other key voting blocs — including Latino voters, seniors and independents — haven’t changed as much since Biden withdrew from the 2024 contest.

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Latino voters backed Biden 54%-38% in the July poll; in this survey, Harris led Trump by a similar 54%-35% margin. Biden had a 9-point advantage among independents, 39%-30%, with many not wanting to pick between Biden and Trump.

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The results and the margin are similar to where Harris and Trump are now: 43%-35%, an 8-point spread.

And among seniors, Trump and Biden were basically tied in July, with the Republican getting 48% and the Democrat 47% among that big bloc of voters.

In the September poll, the picture between Harris and Trump is the same: 48% Trump, 47% Harris.

The national NBC News poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 of 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom were reached via cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margins of error for these different subgroups are larger than 3.1 percentage points.