MOUNT VERNON, Iowa — With her polling position stagnant in Iowa, Nikki Haley and her allies are choosing not to target independent or Democratic voters in the state, bypassing a potential opportunity to persuade them into changing their party registrations on caucus night.
The group that is effectively running the ground operation on behalf of Haley in Iowa, knocking on doors to mobilize voters for the caucuses, said it is not making a concerted, focused effort to turn out independents next month.
“The bulk of who we’re talking to are registered Republicans, because that’s who caucuses,” Drew Klein, senior adviser for Americans for Prosperity Action, said. “There really haven’t been in recent history any historical indications of campaigns going out and really targeting independents, and they also have a pretty low rate of actually showing up to participate.”
In Iowa, the state Republican Party allows voters to change their party affiliation and register as Republicans on the night of the Iowa caucuses. There are more registered independents in Iowa than registered Republicans.
NBC News’ analysis of Iowa voter registration statistics found that up to 11% of Iowans who participated in the 2012 GOP caucuses were independents or Democrats who changed their party affiliation on caucus day. The 2012 election cycle was the last time that only a Republican caucus, and not a Democratic caucus, was held in Iowa.
Haley is currently fighting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to be the leading alternative to former President Donald Trump. Even though her policy positions are far from liberal, Haley has presented a more moderate image on issues like abortion than DeSantis, who has leaned harder to the right and made a name for himself as a culture warrior.
Haley’s campaign, which is more limited in campaign cash compared to Trump’s, has also not prioritized a targeted advertising pitch to urge non-GOP voters to partake, though her campaign argues that her message on the trail appeals to them.
“She’s reaching out to everyone,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, a spokesperson for Haley’s campaign, who said Haley is open to support from independents. She did not, however, point to door-knocking or other specific campaign tactics to woo them. “We’re trying to pull in as many people as we can to our cause. And she is a tried-and-true conservative, but if she can win over hearts and minds, that’s great.”
Independents could be a major path forward in outperforming her non-Trump Republican rivals. The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows Haley topping DeSantis by 6% among Iowa Independents, but notably she is down to Trump by just 13% among the group — a far cry from her overall 35% deficit among likely caucusgoers (the poll’s margin of error is 4%). In a CBS News poll out of New Hampshire this month, Haley bests DeSantis by an even greater margin — 30% — among independents.
And in New Hampshire, unlike in Iowa, there is a more intentional effort by allies to mobilize these voters.
The super PAC Independents for Nikki began running ads in New Hampshire this week highlighting the voices of independent voters. One of the group’s founders, Frank Laukien, told NBC News that it intends to spend more than $1 million on directly contacting a pool of 200,000 independent voters.
“If we can convince an extra 15- or 30,000 voters to vote for Nikki Haley, who might not otherwise vote, it’ll make a big difference,” Laukien said. “The Iowa process is somewhat opaque and unusual. … [New Hampshire] could change the trajectory of this election, and that’s what we’re aiming for.”
Haley’s campaign spokeswoman did not detail their specific independent outreach in New Hampshire but said the candidate “wants to grow the party and bring more people in, and that absolutely includes independents.”
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In New Hampshire last week, DeSantis told a crowd that he should be the last candidate standing against Trump because Haley would have to rely on support from voters outside of the GOP to beat the former president in the primary.
“You have Haley — she’s supposedly this darling of the people that don’t like Trump,” DeSantis said from the stage. “The reality is that she cannot beat Trump in a Republican primary. Why? Because conservatives and core Republicans will not vote for her.”
Despite the potential that Haley could be best positioned to cut Trump’s bid for the nomination, data and conversations with Iowa voters also suggest that there is not an overwhelming enthusiasm to switch parties for the purposes of backing Haley on caucus night.
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Four years ago, Carol Petersen of Ankeny changed her party registration to take part in the Democratic caucus. Reached by phone last week, Petersen said that she intends to change her registration again — this time to Republican — on Jan. 15.
“It’s funny you should ask because I was telling my husband this week that I think I’m going to change my affiliation so I can caucus with the Republicans, and I looked it up on the secretary of state’s website and you can do it the night of the caucus,” said Petersen, adding that she is going to recruit friends in her Des Moines suburb to join her.
Petersen, however, said that she plans to caucus for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, not Haley.
When asked why she would not caucus for the former South Carolina governor, Petersen responded: “When you’re here in Iowa, you see all the commercials. Right now, what she’s saying is that her views are just as crazy as the rest of them. I’d like to see somebody that was more of a normal conservative Republican.”
NBC News reviewed the voter registration statistics from the morning of each election cycle’s caucus and compared the party registrations to the figures following the caucus. In 2020, as many as 12% of Iowans who took part in the Democratic Party’s caucus could have been independents or Republicans who showed up to their caucus site and re-registered as Democrats.
“Independents have typically not played a big role in that,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. “It is a big commitment to go to caucus. … It requires a certain motivation to be willing to do it.”
The statistics from 2016 are less clear because both the Iowa Republican and Democratic parties held their caucuses. But potentially, up to 15% of GOP caucusgoers were previously registered as independents or Democrats.
Linda Olshewsky and John Olshewsky live in here in Mount Vernon. Despite knowing they could register as Republicans on caucus night, the couple said that they will not participate.
“I would never go to the Republican caucus,” said Linda, a registered Democrat.
“Yes, I’ve thought about it. But I won’t do it,” John, a registered independent, followed.
Even then, the couple said that they would not support Haley — instead, they would hypothetically caucus for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
“I don’t think Nikki Haley is saying what she believes,” John said.
In 2022, the campaign for then-Rep. Liz Cheney, as she tried to fend off a Trump-backed Republican challenger, made a concerted effort to persuade non-GOP voters to change their party registrations in order to vote for her in the Republican primary.
Though Cheney lost the race handily, Wyoming voter registration statistics showed that the number of registered Democratic and independent voters dropped by more than 24,000 people in the months before primary day. That share of the electorate — if each voter had effectively re-registered as Republicans — would have made up 14% of the overall turnout for the GOP primary, a notable boost to Cheney.
