Making sense of the new polls seven weeks from Election Day

A slew of new national and swing-state polls have come out in the past 24 hours — particularly from battleground Pennsylvania — and they tell three consistent storylines after last week’s presidential debate.

First: Democrats are in a stronger polling position today than they’ve been this entire year, thanks to the party’s change at the top of its presidential ticket.

Second: The battleground map looks more favorable for Democrats than it had been previously. That’s especially true in the important Great Lakes swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

And third: The presidential contest remains close, with most of these national and state poll results well within the margins of error. Whatever movement there has been, we are a long way from one party or the other clearly breaking this race wide open.

Democrats’ stronger position

Let’s look first at the latest national polls.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 2 points among registered voters, 50% to 48%, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

It was a slight improvement for Harris from last month’s Fox News poll, which had Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%.

And while that movement also is within the margin of error, the Fox poll had Trump slightly leading President Joe Biden for most of the year when he was at the top of the ticket — with one exception (June 2024 before the Biden-Trump debate).

By comparison, a national New York Times/Siena College poll shows a tied race among likely voters, 47% to 47%.

Still, that’s slightly better for Harris than what the outlet’s previous poll showed before September’s debate — Trump 48%, Harris 47%, a change well within the margin of error. And it’s significantly better than where the polling stood for Biden when he was still in the race (he had trailed Trump by between 1 and 6 points in 2024).

A more favorable battleground map for Harris

Next, the state polls all show Harris doing better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Biden had been doing this past year, and certainly after his debate against Trump in June.

In Michigan, a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters (as were all of the state surveys mentioned here) had Harris at 50%, Trump at 45% and another 4% choosing someone else or undecided. A Marist survey of put Harris at 52% and Trump at 47%, with another 2% choosing another option or undecided.

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In Pennsylvania, recent surveys ranged from a tied race to a slight Harris lead inside the margin of error. Quinnipiac University’s survey stood at Harris 51%, Trump 45%, with 5% picking someone else or undecided. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%, don’t know/refused 4%.

But Marist and The Washington Post both showed a tied race in Pennsylvania, at 49% in the first poll and at 48% in the second poll, with the remainders undecided or choosing others.

And in Wisconsin, a slate of new, margin-of-error polls were slightly better for Harris than for Trump. AARP’s survey came in at Harris 49%, Trump 48%. Quinnipiac and Marist also showed 1-point Harris edges, 49%-48% in Quinnipiac and 50%-49% in Marist.

Still a close contest

Despite the stronger position for Democrats, the polls show a close contest.

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That’s especially true with the polling in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump winning just one those states could give him a leg up in the race to 270 electoral votes.

With the poll results mostly inside the margin of error, the outcome of the 2024 race is far from clear.

After all, a shift of just 2 or 3 points would put the race back to where it was when Biden was still in the contest.