Just days after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has raised stacks of campaign money, she has mostly united and energized the Democratic Party, and she has received the backing of a majority of pledged Democratic convention delegates.
That’s the good news for Harris and Democrats.
But her next challenge may be a much steeper one: winning over the swing and independent voters who have been cool to her previously — but who will be crucial to defeating Republican Donald Trump in November.
Merged polling from the NBC News poll — combining responses from surveys conducted in January, April and July before Biden’s exit — finds Harris not only underwater with those swing voters in terms of her popularity but also with lower net scores than Biden has. There are more voters who don’t yet register strong opinions of her, so the numbers could change as the public side of her campaign gets going in earnest. But it’s a potentially vulnerable starting position, though Trump is in similar territory.
Among independent voters, 28% view Biden positively compared to 53% who see him negatively (for a net rating of -25), according to the polling. Harris’ standing among those voters: 20% positive, 49% negative (-29).
Among self-identified moderates, Biden enjoys a 43% positive, 44% negative score (-1), while Harris is at 33% positive, 43% negative (-10).
And among persuadable voters — respondents who don’t vote reliably for either Democrats or Republicans — Biden is at 26% positive, 53% negative (-27), compared with Harris at 19% positive, 51% negative (-32).
The other side of the equation, of course, is that Trump isn’t popular with those swing groups, either. In fact, some of his net ratings are worse than Harris’, according to the merged polling.
Among independents, Trump is 25% positive, 57% negative (-32). Among moderates, he’s 26% positive, 62% (-36). And among persuadable voters, he’s 26% positive, 56% negative (-30).
That having been said, recent national polls — such as ABC News/Ipsos and Quinnipiac — have found Trump’s overall favorability rating improving after he survived the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, less than two weeks ago.
And the shifting ratings are an important reminder for Harris: The numbers can change, especially after she’s reintroduced to the American electorate.
But she’s got work to do.
