He’s still at the helm, for now, but Ukraine's top general is facing an uncertain fate just as his country faces a perilous moment in its fight against Russia.
Widespread media reports that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is about to fire his military leader swirled to a crescendo this week. And while Army Cmdr. Valerii Zaluzhnyi remains in his post, the speculation about an apparent rift between the two — primarily based on anonymous accounts of a private conversation — has exposed possible cracks in the country’s leadership.
Denials from Ukrainian officials have done little to quiet suggestions that the popular commander will soon be dismissed, all while Kyiv confronts a painful shortage of supplies and soldiers, as well as doubts over sustained allied support.
The saga could also dent domestic confidence as the war approaches the two-year mark with morale increasingly strained on the battlefield and among the public, analysts told NBC News.
“When there are speculations on such a sensitive topic, people want clarity,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government research group.
And if there are major changes in the country’s military command, then they want official confirmation and an explanation of why, Bielieskov said.
“Citizens clearly understand that the survival of the country and themselves depends on the relations between the highest civilian and military officials,” he said. “That is why there is such excitement and anticipation.”
Stalemate?
Rumors about Zaluzhnyi’s future have come in waves since Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive, launched last summer under the general’s command, failed to achieve any major breakthroughs. They reached new heights last November when Zaluzhnyi suggested the situation on the battlefield had reached a stalemate — a sobering assessment that did not sit well with Zelenskyy, who tried to downplay it.
Since then, Zelenskyy’s allies have publicly chided Zaluzhnyi for his leadership and what they say is the lack of a clear plan for how to win the war. More recently the two men, by far the country’s most popular war-time leaders, have also aired their differences about the need for a mass mobilization of civilians to sustain the fight.
In recent days Ukrainian and foreign media have reported about Zaluzhnyi’s future. The Financial Times, citing multiple unnamed sources, reported that Zelenskyy asked the general to vacate his post and offered him a new role, but that Zaluzhnyi refused. NBC News could not independently verify the reports, and multiple Ukrainian officials declined to comment.
Zelenskyy’s spokesperson, Sergii Nykyforov, strongly denied "the dismissal of Zaluznnyi" to Ukrainian media, while the defense ministry said “No, it’s not true,” in a social media post on Monday without referencing the general by name.
Zaluzhnyi spoke out in an essay published by CNN on Thursday that it said was written before "the expected announcement of his dismissal." In it he talks about his aims for 2024 and lists what he sees as the problems facing Ukraine, including a reduction in military support from key allies and Russia’s ability to evade sanctions to build more weapons.
He also points to Moscow’s “significant advantage” in being able to recruit as many people as it wants, as opposed to what the general calls the “inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures” — a thinly veiled stab at Zelenskyy’s government.
It remains to be seen how such a dramatic shake-up of Kyiv’s military command, if one is coming, would be seen by its Western allies at such a delicate moment in the relationship.
On Thursday, Ukraine received a major boost from its European partners in the form of a $54 billion financial aid package to keep the country’s war-ravaged economy afloat.
But new U.S. aid remains held up in Congress with Zelenskyy fighting to keep the world’s focus from shifting entirely to the crisis in the Middle East as Russian forces push forward in a new offensive in Ukraine’s northeast.
Throughout the war, Ukraine has worked hard to display determination and cohesion, with Zelenskyy publicly cracking down on corruption and firing close allies suspected of any wrongdoing, but Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal would be like “hitting the bull’s eye” of national unity, former president Petro Poroshenko told NBC News.
“Unity has been and will continue to be possible only around the Armed Forces,” Poroshenko said in a written comment sent by his spokesperson on Whatsapp. “And Valerii Zaluzhnyi has become their personification.”
“In Moscow, they will be choking with joy. It will not make Ukraine stronger, and its consequences will be extremely negative,” added Poroshenko, a bitter rival of Zelenskyy who lost to him in the 2019 election and may still harbor political ambitions.
The Kremlin has certainly been keeping a close eye, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying Wednesday the saga shows Kyiv has “a lot of problems” and “things are not going well there.”
“The rumors are certainly damaging,” said Christopher Tuck, an expert in conflict and security at King’s College London. “Any indication that there is dissension at the highest levels of decision-making risks signaling that the Ukrainian government is uncertain about the progress and direction of the war. This is clearly unhelpful at a time when the government needs to project confidence.”
And it helps to sustain Russian hopes that they can wear down Ukraine’s political will to continue fighting, Tuck said.
Rumors about Zaluzhnyi’s looming dismissal have already led to talk of possible replacements in the Ukrainian press. The names of ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi and spy chief Kyrylo Budanov have topped most lists, but it’s not clear if either man would welcome the responsibility of stepping in for a general widely respected by the public.
Zaluzhnyi, 50, is a career soldier, and took charge of Ukraine’s armed forces in 2021, seven months before the full-scale invasion by Moscow. Ukrainians credit him for holding Russians back around the capital, Kyiv, in the early months of the war, and for Ukraine’s two major counteroffensive campaigns in 2022, which saw large swathes of territory liberated in the east and south.
And while his leadership during last summer’s counteroffensive did not yield significant breakthroughs, his approval remains high.
The general, who does not often speak in public, is highly respected in the military and among ordinary Ukrainians.
A poll conducted in December by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed 88% of Ukrainians have trust in Zaluzhnyi, higher than the 62% for Zelenskyy. The general has yet to show any public ambition of his own, but his popularity has fueled rumors he could challenge Zelenskyy when a presidential election, originally scheduled for this year but postponed under martial law, does next take place.
It’s hardly surprising then that the speculation about his dismissal has permeated daily public life in Ukraine. The rumors are widely discussed on TV newscasts, social media and the streets.
“As soon as you open the media, you immediately see speculations on this topic, or when you just go to the grocery store, and everyone is discussing the potential dismissal of Zaluzhnyi, then you find out about it one way or another whether you want it or not,” Kyiv resident Ihor Medvid told NBC News.
The hype around the rumors has been irritating, Medvid said, and he thinks the whole story is artificially inflated by the media.
But if Zaluzhnyi is indeed fired, Medvid said Ukraine will carry on regardless, even though the morale on the frontlines could suffer.
“I understand how much trust the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have in Zaluzhnyi,” said Medvid, who is a partner in a consulting company in the capital.
“But I think that considering the extent to which our military knows how to take a hit, I think that all they will need to continue the fight, even in the case of Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal, is to give them more weapons and ammunition, which Ukraine is asking for.”
