In a stark warning to Western countries arming Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday he ordered an attack on Ukraine with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile in response to Ukraine’s firing U.S.- and British-supplied longer-range weapons to hit targets inside Russia.
Putin said in a televised address that the strike was a “test” of a new weapon and that Russia reserved the right to strike at countries that provide weapons to Ukraine for attacks on Russian territory.
Deputy Defense Department press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters that the missile was a new, experimental type of intermediate-range ballistic missile based on the design of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
“This was a new type of lethal capability that was deployed on the battlefield, so that was certainly of concern,” Singh said.
Russia notified U.S. officials about the imminent attack, using nuclear risk reduction communication channels, she said. The missile can carry a conventional or a nuclear warhead.
In his speech, Putin warned countries sending weapons to Ukraine that Russia could target them, too.
“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities,” Putin said, according to The Associated Press.
Russia has plenty of other less-sophisticated weapons that could have hit targets in eastern Ukraine without drawing on its strategic arsenal. By using an intermediate-range missile, a weapon able to strike far beyond Ukraine and can carry a nuclear warhead, Moscow was sending a warning signal to Ukraine, Washington and other NATO states, analysts said.
Intermediate-range ballistic missiles have a range of less than 3,500 miles. Intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have a larger range of over 3,500 miles, were developed during the Cold War by both the Soviet Union and the U.S. as part of each side’s nuclear arsenal.
Biden administration officials briefed Ukraine and other allies in recent days about Russia’s possibly using the new weapon to help them prepare, according to a U.S. official.
But the U.S. official said Russia would not be able to bully Ukraine, the U.S. or other countries helping Kyiv fend off invading Russian forces.
“Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters or generate attention in the information space, but it will not be a game changer in this conflict,” the U.S. official said.
The administration will continue to send air defense systems, ammunition and other military hardware to Ukraine through the end of President Joe Biden’s term, officials said.
The news comes as Ukrainian forces used their first long-range U.S. and British missiles to strike Russian soil after Washington and its allies lifted restrictions on Kyiv — a move that Moscow had long warned would be met with a significant response.
Putin this week lowered the bar for his country’s use of a nuclear weapon, a move that Western officials dismissed as the latest instance of Russian saber rattling in the war, which has lasted more than 1,000 days.
'Using Ukraine as a training ground'
Earlier Thursday, Ukraine accused Moscow of launching an ICBM at the eastern city of Dnipro in an overnight attack, which would have been the first recorded use of an ICBM in an active conflict and the latest escalation by the Kremlin.
But a U.S. official disputed that account, and then Putin himself came out and identified the weapon as an intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Serhii Lysak, the head of the Dnipro regional authority, said on Telegram that two people were injured. Meanwhile, 15 people were injured in a separate attack on the eastern city of Kryvyi Rih, local authorities said.
Putin on Tuesday formally revised his country’s nuclear doctrine — a document detailing the conditions under which Moscow would consider using nuclear weapons — with the change justifying a nuclear strike by Russia if it were attacked by a nonnuclear country that was supported by a nuclear state.
Ultimately, analysts say, the likelihood of the Kremlin’s opting to use nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine is very slim — particularly now, when its military is advancing and its opponent is worn down.
Russian forces have seized the momentum in recent months and eked out a succession of territorial gains, particularly on the eastern front lines. They have also been bolstered by thousands of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's troops in their quest to retake occupied land in Russia's Kursk border region.
The West’s relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons may boost Kyiv, but it is likely do little to transform the battlefield situation, analysts said, despite the dire nature of the Kremlin's rhetorical reaction.
“At this stage in the war, the risk of Russian nuclear use is lower than before. Political and battlefield developments favor Russia, so there is little to gain by escalating the conflict to the nuclear level,” said Alexander Bollfrass, head of strategy, technology and arms control at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
In addition to the unclear military benefits of deploying those weapons, there would also be diplomatic drawbacks.
“Nuclear weapons use would risk alienating China and other non-Western countries whose support or neutrality is key to maintaining the Russian war economy,” Bollfrass said in an email Wednesday. “It would also get the relationship with the incoming Trump administration off to a very dangerous start.”
