It’s Sequester Day, and what an absurd week it’s been… The GOP’s mixed message: Some in the party are denouncing the cuts, while others are cheering them on… What happens next? Folks, Bill Bolling WANTS to run in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest… This week’s 2016 news… Newsy nuggets from our NBC/WSJ poll… And Romney on the rollercoaster -- of 2012.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower.
FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Sequester Day (and an absurd week): As the automatic across-the-board spending cuts are set to take effect today and as President Obama meets at the White House with congressional leaders at 10:05 am ET, we have to get this off our chest: This has been an absurd week. Today’s White House meeting is coming only at the last second; there’s been no sense of urgency, no negotiating, and Congress has left town; and, when you think about it, this hasn’t even been a true budget showdown. Given the lack of urgency and negotiating, it’s hard not to conclude that -- deep down -- plenty of folks on both sides of the aisle are OK with having these cuts take place, at least in the short term. Yes, both sides are kicking and screaming publicly. And, yes, these cuts will impact people’s livelihoods. But if you’re a Republican who wants to cut spending, you’re getting your spending cuts. And if you’re a Democrat who either wants to reduce defense spending or ensure that all of the cuts aren’t targeted only at social programs, you’re getting your wish. This is perhaps the biggest reason why these cuts are going into effect: At the end of the day, they were better than the alternative (for Republicans, raising taxes and eliminating loopholes; for Democrats, having these spending cuts come exclusively from social spending).
*** When actions don’t meet words: The most important message the White House and some congressional Republicans seemed intent on sending this week is that they don’t like these spending cuts -- these are bad spending cuts. But their ACTIONS did not meet their WORDS. A conspiracy theorist might conclude that politicians want the cuts to go through while not getting blamed for them.
*** The GOP’s mixed message on the sequester: All that said, Democrats are at least on message that these sequester cuts are bad. The same isn’t true of Republicans, who seem to be divided on whether these cuts are something to complain about or something to cheer. On the one hand, the John McCains and Lindsey Grahams have warned about the defense-spending cuts. House Speaker John Boehner even seemed to share that opinion in last week’s Wall Street Journal op-ed, writing that the cuts threaten “U.S. national security, thousands of jobs and more.” On the other hand, other Republicans are already celebrating these cuts -- as well as House GOP leaders’ refusal to negotiate. “I think Friday will be an important day that shows we’re finally willing to stand and fight for conservative principles and force Washington to start living within its means,” GOP Rep. Steve Scalise told the New York Times. “And that will be a big victory.” Added GOP Rep. Jim Jordan: “If, in fact, we’re going to scale back discretionary spending by $85 billion, tell me when that’s ever happened before.” Senate Republicans, in fact, were so divided on the sequester that they couldn’t get more than 38 votes for their proposal to replace it. In the PR battle over the sequester, the GOP’s muddled message matters. Even if both sides are OK with letting these cuts go into effect, one side is unified that the cuts are bad; the other side seems to be sort of cheering them on.
*** And the GOP’s unified message on taxes: But the GOP has had this one unified message: They’re not going to consider raising any more additional revenue through closing tax loopholes (even though they more than put that on the table during the fiscal-cliff negotiations). Here’s Mitch McConnell’s statement going into today’s White House meeting: “I’m happy to discuss other ideas to keep our commitment to reducing Washington spending at today’s meeting. But there will be no last-minute, back-room deal and absolutely no agreement to increase taxes.”
*** So what happens next? There’s a running theory on the Hill and even in the West Wing that negotiations over the budget resolution, which expires at the end of March, will be an opportunity to “fix” or turn off the sequester. But don’t be surprised if that deadline comes and goes without sequester being touched. Will the White House or Senate Democrats threaten government shutdown over the sequester? That’s about what it would take to force sequester into the Continuing Resolution talks. Hard to imagine the president staking out THAT position. The next trigger point after the C.R. is the debt ceiling in May. A consensus within the GOP these days is that debt ceiling standoffs are not good politics for them, so that could come and go without dealing with sequester. The White House view on sequester: use the bully pulpit to try and get the public to blame the GOP for anything they don’t like that suddenly happens (longer lines, cuts in services, etc.). The White House continues to hang their hat on a strategy of “hope” -- hoping the GOP caves via public pressure and displeasure. But it’s hard to imagine either Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn or John Boehner agreeing to turn off sequester in exchange for any taxes -- all of them would be watching their political careers flash before their eyes if they do. Chew on this: Is there’s a greater chance sequester is the law of the land for the rest of the year than there is a chance for it to get “turned off” or re-negotiated. Happy Friday!
*** Folks,Bolling wants to run: In Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial contest, it’s looking more and more likely that Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) will run as an independent. “Bolling is considering whether to return to the Virginia governor’s race as an independent, and he’s asking for a little help from his friends to make his decision,” the Washington Post writes. “In a letter e-mailed Thursday, Bolling (R) tells supporters that he thinks ‘there is an opportunity to make history in Virginia this year.’ ‘We can send a message about the need to return more civility and a more mainstream approach to politics and governing,’ the message reads. ‘I know it won’t be easy to win the governorship as an Independent candidate, but with your help I believe it can be done.’” The Post adds that Bolling is expected to announce his ultimate decision by March 14. Our take: This is someone who is trying to find a way to run. And if Bolling does get into the race, that will more than shake up this contest.
*** This week’s 2016 news: Here’s our new Friday look at some of this week’s developments in the VERY EARLY 2016 race: Chris Christie wasn’t invited to CPAC (as we reported last week and this week)… New York Rep. Peter King (R), still smarting after Rubio voted against Sandy funding, “could barely contain himself after learning that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has been fundraising in New York after voting against federal funding for Hurricane Sandy victims,” the New York Daily News writes… The nation’s governors were in DC, including potential 2016 hopeful Bobby Jindal, who blasted President Obama saying that the president needed to “show leadership” on the sequester fight and accused him of continuing to “campaign”… Bob McDonnell drew fire from conservatives for his transportation plan that raises revenue. Erick Erickson called him “pathetic” and a “liar.” But McDonnell said it shows he’s willing to fix problems – something he was happy to tout on The Daily Rundown… Hillary Clinton’s upcoming memoir is expected to grab a hefty advance, Buzzfeed wrote… And Rick Perry, who’s still entertaining notions of running in 2016, jabbed at Democrats (and Longhorn fans) by telling the Wall Street Journal: “The University of Texas will change its colors to maroon and white before Texas goes purple, much less blue.”
*** Newsy nuggets from our NBC/WSJ poll: While we’ve already covered many of the major topline numbers from our most recent poll, here are some other interesting numbers: Chuck Hagel’s fav/unfav among Republicans -- remember he was a former GOP senator -- is just 1%/32% vs. 22%-6% among Democrats… Despite its current financial problems, the U.S. Postal Service is more popular (a 60%/13% fav/unfav) than Pope Benedict XVI (30%-17%)… And the only demographic group with a positive view of the Republican Party: white southerners, who give the GOP a 39%/35% fav/unfav.
*** Rollercoaster … of love: And in his first interview since losing last year’s presidential contest, Mitt Romney likened his bid to a rollercoaster ride, according to excerpts of the FOX interview that will air on Sunday. “We were on a rollercoaster, exciting and thrilling, ups and downs. But the ride ends," Romney said, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty. "And then you get off. And it's not like, ‘Oh, can't we be on a roller coaster the rest of our life?’ It's like, no, the ride's over." His wife, Ann, added: “It is an adjustment, but it’s one I think we did well,” said Ann Romney. She added, “The good news is fortunately we like each other.”
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PROGRAMMING NOTES.
*** Friday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) on the sequester start… Freshman Reps. Luke Messer (R-IN) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) on their first two months on the job… A Deep Dive into picking the next pope with NBC Vatican Analyst George Weigel… Plus Politico’s Jonathan Martin, the Center for American Progress’ Daniella Gibbs Leger and former Bush White House spokesman Tony Fratto join the Gaggle.
*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Rep. Peter Welch, Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Liz Sidoti, and David Nakamura on the sequestration. She also talks to George Weigel and Father Robert Gahl about the next Pope, as well as Ed Rendell and Rick Lazio to discuss Prop 8.
*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Chris Cillizza, filling in for NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, interviews Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), Rep. Marc Thornberry (R-TX), Milwaukee Police Chief Edward Flynn, Meet the Press Moderator David Gregory, The Economist’s Greg Ip, former RNC Chair Michael Steele, former Obama Campaign Press Secretary Ben LaBolt and The Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus.
*** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: Guests include Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Politico’s Ken Vogel, the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, and Reuters/Atlantic columnist Zachary Karabell.
*** Saturday’s “MSNBC Live Weekends” line-up, starting at 2:00 pm ET: Craig Melvin’s guests include Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), Politico’s Manu Raju, the Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe and David Nakamura and Dana Milbank, Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, Republican strategist Rich Galen, former DNC Comm. Director Karen Finney, Col. Jack Jacobs, former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA), NBC News Vatican Analyst George Weigel, iVillage Chief Correspondent Kelly Wallace, The Grio’s Perry Bacon, former Bill Frist speechwriter Amy Holmes, and Jared Bernstein, former Economic Policy Adviser to VP Biden.
*** Sunday’s “MSNBC Live Weekends” line-up, starting 3:00 pm ET: Craig Melvin’s guests include Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY), former Sen. Judd Gregg, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Republican strategist Alice Stewart, former GHW Bush aide Joe Watkins, Democratic strategist Richard Goodstein, LA Times’ Maeve Reston, The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty, MSNBC Contributor Ari Melber, journalist and filmmaker Rula Jebreal, and syndicated columnist Bob Franken.
OBAMA AGENDA: Overhyped?
National Journal calls the immediate impact of the sequester “overhyped.” “Let’s be clear about one thing: The across-the-board spending cuts known as the ‘sequester’ aren’t a doomsday scenario, or a meteorite that will blow up the economy,” it writes. “Teachers, FBI agents, and Border Patrol officers will not get fired tomorrow, when the sequester kicks in. The Internal Revenue Service will still be able to process your tax return in April. Preschool programs won't kick out 70,000 little kids until the fall, according to Education Secretary Arne Duncan—and that’s if the spending cuts stick. Unemployed people, arguably some of the worst-off of the lot, will not see their federal benefits reduced by 11 percent until April at the earliest, says the National Employment Law Project. This is roughly four weeks away, giving Congress and the White House time to act beyond the March 1 deadline that has been touted in headlines and press conferences for the past week.”
“With further skirmishes over the debt ceiling and government funding not far off, the White House finds itself in choppy political waters for the first time since Obama won reelection. Its best-case political course hinges on the economy screeching to a halt, assumes that Republicans will again cave on revenues, and relies on the public being on his side. It’s a political gamble that could go bust,” National Journal writes. “The stakes for Obama could not be higher. At risk are high-priority items such as immigration reform and gun control, which are languishing as the sequester hogs the limelight. It’s not only the president’s agenda that could be at risk--the full-time attention to the fiscal fight is sucking valuable attention on more-pressing progressive priorities.”
USA Today: “The Obama administration came out forcefully Thursday against California's ban on same-sex marriage and, by extension, implicated similar bans in 37 other states.”
Bob Woodward’s throwing Politico under the bus, saying that he never used the word “threat.” “I never characterized it as a ‘threat.' I think that was Politico’s word," Woodward told the Washington Post. But as Dylan Byers (of Politico) notes, “Woodward never used the word "threat" in his interviews with POLITICO and CNN, but he frequently fastened upon Sperling's use of the word ‘regret’ as an example of the White House trying to exert power. Woodward has also said that the word made him feel ‘uncomfortable,’ despite the fact that Sperling's email has been interpreted by many reporters as cordial and friendly.” And: “During the course of his interview with CNN, Wolf Blitzer characterized Sperling's remarks as a threat and Woodward accepted that characterization.” And last night on Hannity, he called the language “coded,” like, “you better watch out.”
This is the top story, above-the-fold of the Boston Globe: “Roberts remarks on Mass. disputed.” Massachusetts officials are pushing back against Chief Justice John Roberts, who accused the state of having “the worst ratio of white voter turnout to African-American voter turnout” and the greatest disparity in registration. Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin called Roberts’ comments a “slur.” “I’m calling him out,” Galvin said Thursday, adding, ““We have one of the highest voter registrations in the country,” he said, “so this whole effort to make a cheap-shot point at Massachusetts is deceptive.”
The Boston Globe: “Galvin was not alone in his view. Academics and Massachusetts politicians said that Roberts appeared to be misguided. A Supreme Court spokeswoman declined to offer supporting evidence of Roberts’s view, referring a reporter to the court transcript.” More: “Galvin and political scientists speculated that Roberts drew his conclusions using US Census Bureau data known as ‘The Current Population Survey,’ which collects information on voting and registration every other year. Political scientists say this is one of the few national databases, if not the only one, providing state-by-state voting information. But a review of those census data appears to contradict Roberts, showing such states as Washington, Arizona, and Minnesota with similar if not bigger gaps between black and white voters.”
From the turnout expert: “The margin of error is huge,” said Michael P. McDonald, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University who specializes in American elections. “They’re not reliable numbers.”
“Former Mitt Romney supporter Clint Eastwood, who infamously debated an empty chair at the Republican National Convention, has joined the long list of GOP signatures on a legal briefing supporting same-sex marriage,” the New York Daily News writes. “The amicus or friend-of-the-court brief will be submitted this week to the Supreme Court, which is scheduled next month to take up a challenge to the California gay marriage ban known as Proposition 8, as well as a challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act.”
Here’s the full list of the 131, featuring many top Republicans and strategists, led by former Bush campaign chairman Ken Mehlman.
USA Today on climate change: “More American children are getting asthma and allergies, and more seniors are suffering heat strokes. Food and utility prices are rising. Flooding is overrunning bridges, swamping subways and closing airport runways. People are losing jobs in drought-related factory closings. Cataclysmic storms are wiping out sprawling neighborhoods. Towns are sinking. This isn't a science-fiction, end-of-the-world scenario. Though more anecdotal than normal — today, at least — these scenes are already playing out somewhere in the United States, and they're expected to get worse in years ahead. In fact, a remaking of America is likely in our lifetimes — a flicker in geological time. This will transform how and where we live, work and play.”
“Private government aircraft travel for the attorney general, the FBI director and other top Justice Department officials cost $11.4 million during a four-year period ending in 2011, according to a federal review,” USA Today writes. “The Government Accountability Office review found that the travel of three attorneys general who served during that period and FBI Director Robert Mueller accounted for 95% of all flights that ferried Justice executives to official meetings, conferences and personal business. For security reasons, the attorney general and FBI director are required to take private government aircraft, even on personal business.”
CONGRESS: Cheering on the sequester?
The New York Times: “While the frustrations of Congressional Democrats and Mr. Obama with Mr. Boehner are reaching a fever pitch, House Republicans could not be more pleased with their leader. ‘We asked him to commit to us that when the cuts actually came on March 1, that he would stand firm and not give in, and he’s holding to that,’ said Representative Steve Scalise, Republican of Louisiana and chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. ‘I think Friday will be an important day that shows we’re finally willing to stand and fight for conservative principles and force Washington to start living within its means. And that will be a big victory.’”
The Washington Post adds, “One day before automatic spending cuts were due to hit the Pentagon and other federal agencies, Congress on Thursday abandoned efforts to avert the reductions and left town for the weekend. The sequester is here, and policymakers have no plans to end it.”
OFF TO THE RACES: Illinois -- state of conviction
ILLINOIS:Political Wire: “Republican voters picked ex-convict Paul McKinley (R) as their nominee to run for the seat recently ceded by former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr, the Chicago Tribune reports. McKinley, a convicted felon who served nearly 20 years in state prison for burglaries, armed robberies and aggravated battery, declared victory, beat businessman Eric Wallace (R) by 23 votes.”
MASSACHUSETTS: Republican Gabriel Gomez officially launched his Senate bid.
NEW JERSEY: Seriously, Cory Booker helped a guy from New York with a marriage proposal. The man contacted him on Twitter. Booker replied: "I am a romantic. Sounds fun."
NEW YORK: “Mayoral front-runner Christine Quinn came under fire Thursday night as fellow candidates criticized her refusal to allow the City Council to vote on a bill to require paid sick days for workers,” the New York Daily News writes.
