With the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip having collapsed after Israel resumed its bombing campaign, the Israeli military is expanding its activities in the shattered enclave. What comes next could set the stage for a sea change by Israel in Gaza and the broader region.
Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 700 people in Gaza in just over a week since the country shattered its two-month-old ceasefire deal with Hamas, according to the Palestinian health ministry in the enclave run by that the militant group.
Meanwhile, statements from the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordering troops to seize parts of Gaza to be "annexed to Israel" unless Hamas meets its demands are fueling fears of those in the region and among experts of a significant escalation in this bloody near-year-and-a-half-long war.
What's changed?
The renewed assault comes after Israel broke its ceasefire with Hamas after the militant group refused a proposal pitched by White House envoy Steve Witkoff to extend the first phase of the truce deal, rather than negotiate and implement the second phase as had been previously agreed.
Speaking with Fox News on Sunday, Witkoff blamed the breakdown of the ceasefire on Hamas' refusal to accept the proposed extension. Meanwhile, Hamas has blamed Israel for refusing to continue negotiations about phase two.
Strikes on Gaza over the weekend pushed the death toll of people killed in the territory past more than 50,000 since the war began, according to local health officials.
Israel launched its offensive after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attacks in which some 1,200 people were killed and around 250 others taken hostage, marking a major escalation in a decades-long conflict.
Since relaunching the Israeli military's campaign, far-right member of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition government Itamar Ben-Gvir has rejoined the Cabinet. He and his Otzma Yehudit party left the fragile coalition over opposition to the ceasefire deal, which he said was "reckless" and would undermine Israel's progress.
Now, Israel appears prepared for the possibility of a new phase of the war if Hamas does not accept the extension proposal, experts told NBC News, warning of the possibility of a broader Israeli occupation of Gaza.
"It is pretty clear and understood that the objective of the current military operation is to pressure Hamas to accept Witkoff's proposal, not to come back to the negotiation table," Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Monday.
If Hamas continues to refuse the proposal, Michael said he believed Israeli forces would "increase the military pressure," with the possibility of Israel looking to "occupy the Gaza Strip" at least with a "temporary military administration" that would aim to dismantle Hamas.
For the families of those whose loved ones remain in Hamas' captivity, the resumption of fighting delivered a major blow, with many calling for a return to the ceasefire to see their relatives freed. Just under 60 hostages are believed to remain under Hamas' captivity, both dead and alive.
"We must say this clearly: Returning to war could lead to hostages being accidentally harmed by our forces, or tortured and murdered by terrorists," the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a press release Thursday. "This is not an outcome the Israeli people can accept."
All-out war?
On Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he was ordering troops to permanently seize parts of the Gaza Strip to be "annexed to Israel" unless Hamas hands over remaining hostages in the enclave.
“The more Hamas persists in its refusal to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose, which will be annexed to Israel," Katz said.
Michael said that Israel was getting "closer and closer to an all out war in the Gaza Strip that will lead to the full occupation of the Gaza Strip unless Hamas will change its mind" about refusing to extend the ceasefire deal.
"And I don't see any signals that Hamas is in that direction."
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s school of security studies, said that if the objective of continued fighting is a reoccupation of Gaza, temporary or otherwise, then another aim that could be "looming in the background" is President Donald Trump's recent proposal of the U.S. taking over the enclave and turning it into the "Riviera of the Middle East."
While it remains unclear what the plan for the day after the war will be in Gaza, Netanyahu's government has signaled its support for Trump's proposal.
Asked to comment on the report and on Israel’s future plans for Gaza, a spokesperson for Netanyahu’s office did not immediately respond.
"Naturally, we will not comment on future operational plans," the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement sent to NBC News on Monday, adding that the military acted "accordance with operational plans that were devised by the appropriate professional bodies, and by the directive of the political echelon."
A spokesperson for Katz pointed to a statement that the defense minister issued on X Monday.
“We will not stop until our hostages are released and Hamas is no longer in control of the Gaza Strip and is no longer a threat to Israel and Israelis," Katz said.
