Polls opened on Sunday in the German state of Brandenburg, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to finish first, aiming to build on recent successes in other eastern states and surpass Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in this traditional stronghold.
The AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II, in Thuringia, on Sept. 1 and just missed first place in Saxony.
It is one of several far-right groups in Europe capitalising on worries over an economic slowdown, immigration and the Ukraine war — concerns that are particularly strong in formerly Communist-run eastern Germany.
The party, which is unlikely to be able to govern because it is polling short of a majority and other parties would refuse to work with it, is also seeking to gain from discontent over infighting in Scholz’s three-party federal coalition.
Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD candidate for Brandenburg state premier, cast his ballot on Sunday in the town of Golssen, south of Berlin, expressing optimism about his party’s prospects with increased support compared to 2019.
“If we continue to receive the same level of support we've seen in recent weeks and months, things in Germany will start to improve,” Berndt said, adding that while the election was important, Brandenburg’s future won’t be decided solely by Sunday’s outcome.
An AfD victory in the state election would be a particular embarrassment for the Social Democrats (SPD), which has won elections in Brandenburg and governed the state of 2.5 million people since reunification in 1990.
It would also raise further questions about the suitability of Scholz, the least popular German chancellor on record, to lead the party into next year’s election.
Brandenburg’s popular SPD premier Dietmar Woidke has mostly shunned campaigning with Scholz, who lives in the state’s capital, Potsdam. In an unusual move, Woidke has also criticised the behaviour and policies of the ruling coalition.
Instead, he has sought to highlight economic success stories during the five years since the last state election such as the opening of a Tesla factory and Brandenburg airport — which serves Berlin and is now Germany’s third most important aviation hub.
Narrow the gap
In recent weeks, the SPD has managed to narrow the gap with the AfD, opinion polls have shown.
A poll published by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Thursday put the AfD on 28% in Brandenburg with the SPD just one point behind on 27%, followed by the conservatives on 14% and the new leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 13%.
“My greatest challenge in this legislative period ... to not allow right-wing extremists to have anything to say in this country ever again,” Woidke said at a campaign event on Tuesday.
He has threatened to resign if his party comes in behind the AfD. AfD party leader Tino Chrupalla said Scholz should do the same.
“It is high time this government suffer the consequences after this state election,” Chrupalla said.
Both of Scholz’s junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats and the Greens, look set to struggle to win the 5% needed to enter the state parliament, polls show.
At a national level, the three parties in Scholz’s coalition are now collectively polling less than the opposition conservatives although political analysts say much could change before the federal election due in September 2025.
