An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms off North and South Carolina on Monday morning, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 (or PTC 8 for short), is the next potential Atlantic system that may affect the continental U.S.
At of 11 a.m. ET Monday, the core of the system, 75 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina, was producing tropical-storm-force wind gusts and torrential rain, especially from Wilmington to Carolina Beach, North Carolina.
The storm comes a week after Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana and left hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.
According to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, several locations had already picked up double-digit rainfall totals from the latest system, including more than 15 inches at Carolina Beach.
In addition to the rain reports, some impressive wind reports were also recorded from buoys in the Atlantic just off the mid-Atlantic coast. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, reported sustained wind of 47 mph with a gust of 56 mph, and another NOAA buoy offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, reported sustained wind of 38 mph and a gust of 54 mph.
Meanwhile, Wilmington recorded a 60 mph wind gust earlier Monday morning.
As the system slowly moves toward the coast, it is running out of time over open water to organize enough into a tropical or subtropical system. Even if it doesn't become a named system, the area of unsettled weather will still move inland Monday afternoon between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
Named or not, it will not change the wind and rain impacts expected with the system.
Tropical storm conditions are expected through the day Monday along the Carolina coast, where heavy rain, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the rain will linger across the mid-Atlantic and affect parts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and New York.
Minor storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina, and along the Neuse, Bay, Pamlico and Pungo rivers in North Carolina.
As many as 6 million people are under a flood watch from northeast South Carolina up through central North Carolina. The flood watch includes Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Cape Hatteras and Raleigh.
In terms of rain forecast totals still to come, for South Carolina into southeast North Carolina, 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches, could fall through Monday night.
For interior North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches, could fall through Tuesday.
And across Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible through Wednesday.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Depression Gordon continues to roam over the open sea. It is forecast to strengthen back to a tropical storm by the end of the week as it meanders over the Atlantic with no threat to land.
Beyond the mid-Atlantic system Monday and Gordon in the tropical Atlantic, attention will then turn this weekend to the western Caribbean Sea, where global forecast models hint at the possible development in the region heading into the final week of September.
