Holding elections in Ivory Coast as planned on Oct. 30 will be “almost impossible," but credible polls are vital to stop the West African country sliding back into war, a senior United Nations official said on Wednesday.
The comment from Antonio Monteiro, the U.N.’s High Representative for Elections in Ivory Coast, is the first high-level recognition from the world body that postponing the vote is virtually inevitable in the world’s top cocoa grower.
“I can tell you today that the date of October 30 is almost impossible,” Monteiro told Reuters in an interview in Ivory Coast’s commercial capital Abidjan.
“If we don’t have an electoral process that would be acceptable for everyone and engage everyone, then the risk of returning to war is great,” said Monteiro, a Portuguese diplomat and former minister who arrived in Ivory Coast last month.
Hopes for elections dashed
Hopes that elections could end a civil war which broke out in 2003 have all but evaporated. Anti-government rebels said last week they would not allow the polls to go ahead in the northern half of the country they control, fearing rigging by the government.
President Laurent Gbagbo has since modified new electoral laws that rebels had complained were skewed to ensure his victory, but the rebels say they are still not satisfied with the legislation.
The dispute over the laws governing voting eligibility and the creation of an independent electoral committee has led to a series of missed deadlines for the rebels and various militia groups to disarm, further undermining the peace process.
“If you look at security including demilitarization and disarmament, all of these tasks are now so delayed that naturally they will have an impact on the electoral process,” Monteiro said.
Monteiro added the U.N. Security Council and South African mediators, who have been mandated by the African Union to push for progress in the peace process, would use sanctions on parties seen as blocking progress if necessary.
Cocoa buyers rattled
About 10,000 U.N. and French troops keep the warring sides apart, manning a buffer zone running across the country, but sporadic violence has continued and tensions remain high as arguments over the implementation of a peace deal persist.
Fears that tensions over the polls could explode into violence in the world’s top cocoa producer have led some exporters to advance less cash to middlemen buying beans from farmers, fearing they may lose their money if fighting resumes.
The cocoa industry was brought to a standstill for days last November when mobs swarmed the streets of Abidjan during anti-French riots after France’s peacekeepers crippled the Ivorian airforce in retaliation for bombing attacks that killed nine of their troops.
Rebels and opposition parties are demanding Gbagbo step down after Oct. 30 to make way for a jointly chosen transition leader to ensure elections at a later date are fair, saying his mandate will have expired by then.
Gbagbo’s supporters say he is constitutionally obliged to stay in power until a successor is elected.
Gbagbo told U.N. radio last week he would not object to the polls being delayed if voter cards and administration were not finished in the remaining eight weeks. So far, virtually no preparations have been made to hold the polls.
