Now that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has shown that persistence pays off, with her comeback victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries on Tuesday, a new question immediately confronts her and her campaign: Can she persevere to ultimately win the nomination?
Clinton advisers were publicly celebrating their fresh momentum on Wednesday, and privately plotting political and advertising strategy for the weeks ahead. Yet cutting through that hubbub were some clear, cold numbers: Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has about 90 delegates more than Mrs. Clinton, of New York, and she faces a steep uphill climb in trying to overtake him.
But it is doable. More than 13 weeks remain before the last contest — the June 7 contest for Puerto Rico’s 63 delegates — and any number of game-changing gaffes, knockouts, debates, advertisements or world events could influence the race by then. To a large extent, the Clinton strategy is simply to run out the clock and hope — by dint of primary victories and her candidacy’s credibility — that she compiles the most delegates by then.
Clamoring for superdelegates
While Mr. Obama has enjoyed particular momentum recently in recruiting superdelegates — the party leaders who can pick a candidate themselves — Clinton advisers say they are urging the remaining 448 uncommitted superdelegates to sit tight and let the primary season play out before choosing a candidate.
It is unclear if they can succeed: the Obama campaign has been announcing each day that a new superdelegate or two have aligned with his efforts, and his advisers say they expect to continue recruiting more.
Unless they can freeze enough superdelegates in place, Clinton advisers acknowledge that the delegate arithmetic has them at a sharp disadvantage; Mr. Obama has 1,456.5 total delegates to Mrs. Clinton’s 1,370. The remaining 12 primaries will award delegates proportionally to both the winner and the loser, meaning that future victories will not alter the delegate margins substantially. And it will be difficult if not impossible for either candidate to get the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination, leaving the contest very likely in the hands of superdelegates.
Part of Mrs. Clinton’s case to superdelegates is that they should at least wait and see her and Mr. Obama perform in the next big contest, the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, which awards 188 delegates. She is ahead in polls there, and enjoys support from Gov. Edward G. Rendell and several city officials.
A victory there, in turn, could give her good momentum heading into the Indiana primary two weeks later, her advisers say. The state’s influential Democratic senator, Evan Bayh, a former two-term governor, was one of Mrs. Clinton’s earliest supporters. Indiana has 84 delegates.
The campaign advisers also believe that she has a shot in West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota, which have a combined 122 delegates, and that — given her strong support among Hispanics — she is likely to do very well in Puerto Rico, which has 63 delegates. But along the way are contests in North Carolina, where polls suggest Mr. Obama is well positioned, and Mississippi, which has a large black Democratic electorate.
Clinton advisers said Wednesday that they did not believe they had to open a significant new offensive against Mr. Obama to beat him in primaries or to freeze superdelegates in place. Rather, they argued that he was already on the defensive.
Noting that Mrs. Clinton decisively won among voters who made up their minds in the days and hours before Tuesday’s vote, her advisers credited that momentum to her recent ads challenging Mr. Obama’s ability in a national security crisis, her campaign’s complaints about media bias favoring Mr. Obama, and questions about his financial ties to a former donor and friend who is on trial in Chicago on corruption charges. (Mr. Obama is not connected to the trial.)
‘Fuller vetting’ of Obama
Mark Penn, the Clinton campaign’s chief strategist, predicted Wednesday that “a fuller vetting process” of Mr. Obama by the news media would heighten concerns among voters about Mr. Obama’s candidacy and “open up a number of other states” where Mrs. Clinton could compete intensively for delegates.
Senator Clinton’s advisers were also discussing Wednesday how to add the delegates from Michigan and Florida to her column. The Democratic Party stripped the two states of their delegates after they moved their primaries to January. Mrs. Clinton remained on the ballot in each state (as did Mr. Obama in Florida); she won both.
While Clinton advisers have publicly opposed talk of a “do over” contest in either state, some of her advisers said Wednesday that they were now inclined to support such a vote. They believe that her strength with Hispanics, women and Jewish voters in Florida, and with union workers and women in Michigan, would be enough to overtake Mr. Obama’s advantage with black and young voters in both states.
Mrs. Clinton and her top aides continue to oppose such a do-over, which could deeply split the Democratic Party. The alternative is waiting until July for the party to consider allowing the Florida and Michigan delegates to count at the August convention. But the Clinton advisers who support a new vote said they expected conversations on the issue to intensify in her camp.
In the short term, the campaign announced Wednesday that Mrs. Clinton would campaign in Mississippi on Thursday and Friday; the primary there, with 40 delegates at stake, is on Tuesday. Former President Bill Clinton is also scheduled to campaign in Mississippi on Friday.
Mr. Clinton will campaign in Wyoming on Thursday, in advance of the caucuses on Saturday (18 delegates), and Mrs. Clinton may head there Friday.
