A new AARP poll in Alaska shows just how much the state’s Top 4 primary and ranked-choice voting systems could help Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski win in November.
The poll surveyed likely Alaska voters for their ranked choices in the state’s House and Senate races before simulating a ranked-choice election. This means that whichever candidate received the least first choice votes was eliminated and their voters were reassigned to whatever candidates the voters ranked second in the survey. After all but two candidates in each race were eliminated in the survey’s simulation, Peltola held a commanding lead over former GOP Gov. Sarah Palin and Murkowski was virtually tied against her top opponent, Republican Kelly Tshibaka.
In the House race, it was a third-choice candidate’s voters who doomed Palin in the poll. After Republican Nick Begich was eliminated after the second round of voting, 30% of his voters didn’t rank a second choice and 14% ranked Peltola second, meaning Palin was denied 44% of the voters from the second-most popular Republican in the race. Peltola wins the simulation by a margin of six percentage points.
And, in the Senate race, Murkowski’s support among Democrats helped propel her to a tie. Fifty-four percent of registered Democrats polled selected Murkowski as their first choice, while only 44% selected the actual Democrat in the race, Pat Chesbro. After Chesbro was eliminated following the second round, 77% of her voters ranked Murkowski second.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Arizona Senate: Saving Arizona, a super PAC supporting Republican Blake Masters, has spent $30,000 on a “30 minute infomercial” launching Oct. 1, per AdImpact. And Sentinel Action Fund, a super PAC tied to the conservative group Heritage Action for America, placed its first ad spending in Arizona, reserving $1.4 million on the airwaves. The group plans to spend $5 million, Politico reported earlier this week.
Georgia Senate: A Democratic super PAC is up with a new ad that uses old footage and a book excerpt to discuss “Herschel Walker’s history of violence.” Walker, who has struggled with dissociative identity disorder, has accused opponents of stigmatizing those with mental illness. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a new deep-dive out Friday on Walker’s past violence.
New Hampshire Senate: Retired Brigadier Gen. Don Bolduc, who just won the GOP primary, completely reversed his position on the 2020 election, telling Fox News on Wednesday, “The election was not stolen” and that Biden is “the legitimate president,” despite previously insisting that Trump actually won the election. Meanwhile, EMILY’s List’s independent expenditure arm Women Vote launched its first statewide ad in the race focused on abortion.
Pennsylvania Senate: Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman sat down with MSNBC’s Alex Wagner Tonight, where he said that “all of my doctors on the team believes I’m absolutely fit to serve” after he suffered his stroke.
Kansas Governor: The Republican Governors Association launched a new ad against Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly featuring swimmer Riley Gains, who competed against transgender swimmer Lia Thomas. “Laura Kelly vetoed laws to protect women and girls in sports, not once, but twice,” Gains says in the ad. “If Laura Kelly can’t protect women, she shouldn’t be governor of Kansas.”
Michigan Governor: Trump announced that he’ll be holding a rally in Michigan on Oct. 1 featuring GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, as well as two election deniers running for statewide office, attorney general nominee Matthew DePerno and secretary of state nominee Kristina Karamo.
