What happens now after Sen. Tim Scott suspended his presidential campaign? The most recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa offers one clue: The GOP race barely changes.
According to last month’s Iowa poll, former President Donald Trump led his nearest rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, by 27 points among likely Republican caucusgoers, with Scott in fourth place: Trump 43%, DeSantis 16%, Haley 16%, Scott 7%.
But when Scott’s 7% support is reallocated to those voters’ second choices, the distribution is roughly even. In other words, the South Carolina senator's disappearance from the race does little to help any of his non-Trump rivals catch up to the former president.
About a quarter of Scott supporters go to Trump, another quarter goes to DeSantis, and another quarter goes to Haley.
And when Iowa pollster Ann Selzer reallocates that second choice, it produces an Iowa horserace that remains unchanged — albeit with Trump closer to 50%.
The reallocated horserace numbers: Trump 45%, DeSantis 18%, Haley 18%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 4%, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 4%, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum 3%.
