A month ago, the Miami Dolphins looked lifeless in the water.
Even after the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who sustained a concussion in Week 2 and missed four games, the team was 2-6 — seemingly closer to the No. 1 overall pick than the playoffs.
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have since caught fire, reeling off three straight wins — placing them only 1 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the AFC. And in the five weeks since returning, Tagovailoa has played some of the best football of his career, posting a 76.5% completion percentage, with 11 touchdowns, one interception and a 116.2 passer rating.
Miami now looks much closer to the team that, albeit flawed, made the playoffs in the last two seasons. But while the last three wins have been impressive (and the two losses before both came on game-winning field goals), none of the Dolphins’ five victories this year have come against a team currently with a winning record.
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And that’s why the Green Bay Packers will be a real test for Miami's contender status on Thursday night.
The Dolphins will be looking to squash multiple criticisms on Thanksgiving. Can Tagovailoa beat a winning team? Can Miami win in prime time? Can the offense thrive in cold weather?
The Packers, in many ways, serve as a foil to the Dolphins.
Quarterback Jordan Love (who was in the same 2020 draft class as Tagovailoa) doesn’t have as long a résumé, but he may have a more impressive one.
Last season, his first as a starter, Love rescued a 2-5 Green Bay team, leading it to a 7-3 record (and playoff berth) down the stretch. That run included two monster wins — on the road against the Detroit Lions, and at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football."
All seven of those wins came in November, December and January. And for good measure, Love and the Packers also went on the road and upset the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs.
That’s roughly the inverse of how Miami finished last year. The Dolphins started 8-3, limped to a 3-3 finish, and were then blown out by the Chiefs in the postseason.
This season, it’s Green Bay that has raced out to an 8-3 start. The Packers are fifth in total offense and eighth in scoring. And Love is tied for sixth in the NFL with 18 passing touchdowns despite missing multiple games with a knee injury.
Unlike the Dolphins, who went 1-3 without Tagovailoa for four games, Green Bay found ways to win without Love, going 2-0 in his absence. A key reason for that success was the Packers’ strong rushing attack, third-best in the league.
Miami has had high-profile opportunities to prove its mettle before, but squandered nearly all of them. Last season, the Dolphins lost on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles on "Sunday Night Football," to Kansas City in Germany, and the Buffalo Bills in a de facto AFC East championship game in Week 18. Those were the kinds of games Love and Green Bay were winning down the stretch.
Ultimately, Tagovailoa’s play over the last five weeks is nothing to scoff at, especially considering the frightening nature of what was at least his third concussion as a professional earlier this season. But if he and the Dolphins want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they need to beat a Packers team that’s proven to be a step ahead of them.
