As parts of the East Coast were still recovering from destruction wrought by the remnants of Hurricane Debby, the next Atlantic front was developing Monday into a potential tropical storm and quickly moving west.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was taking shape 645 miles east-southeast of Antigua and was headed west-northwest at 25 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 a.m. update. Multiple Caribbean islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, are in its probable path.
The potential cyclone was gaining strength rapidly enough that the hurricane center said it would most likely be a named Tropical Storm Ernesto by the end of Monday, possibly around the same time it passes east of Puerto Rico, which can expect storm surges of up to 3 feet and as much as 10 inches of rain in some areas.
If it eventually gains enough strength — 74 mph or greater sustained winds — it would be the third hurricane of the season. So far, the hurricane center has not said the front was headed for hurricane status.
The potential cyclone was producing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph Sunday night. It would take maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to graduate to tropical storm status. It would be the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season so far, as indicated by its temporary name.
The potential cyclone has prompted a 48-hour tropical storm watch, which in this case warns of possible damaging winds, high surf and potential flooding of up to 6 inches of rain, for the following Caribbean islands: Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culbrera.
The front is projected to reach those islands by early Tuesday afternoon, according to hurricane center information.
In addition, the hurricane center is warning the populations of the Leeward Islands and the British and the U.S. Virgin Islands — all to the west of those Caribbean islands under the tropical storm watch — to monitor the front, which could strike them early Wednesday.
The forecast track takes the front into the Caribbean region but then has it turning directly northward into the Atlantic, keeping it off the coast of the mainland U.S. for now.
The government of Sint Martin, a small island divided into two areas each controlled by the Netherlands and France, said it had responded to a landslide and the collapse of a newly built road surface after major rainfall.
Policy adviser Luciano Nicholls blamed a lack of proper drainage for the disruption. “Incidents like these clearly demonstrate the need for proper and sustainable development going forward, including proper infrastructure management,” he said in a statement.
The potential cyclone's formation appears to be consistent with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's latest outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, which concludes that there's a 90% chance of an above-normal number of storms by the time it concludes in November.
The Colorado State University's hurricane forecast is in agreement. It says near-record warmth in the tropical Atlantic is providing ample fuel for storm development.
"Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," it said in its latest forecast paper, published Sunday.
It added, "We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls."
Meanwhile, 2 million people across eastern North Carolina are under flood watches as rainfall adds to already swollen rivers.
