What the polls say about the Jan. 6 investigation — and another Trump indictment

It's too soon to know how former President Donald Trump's indictment Tuesday over his actions following the 2020 election could affect him politically. But recent polling does show how the public feels about his conduct.

Trump was indicted on four federal charges relating to his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen and his alleged attempts to stop the results from being certified.

Here’s a look at what recent polling says about how the American public views the circumstances surrounding Trump’s actions and the possibility of an indictment over that conduct:

Pre-indictment, the public split on whether Trump's conduct was illegal

These new charges were just released, so there has not been enough time for the public to digest the specific allegations facing Trump, let alone for pollsters to take the temperature of public opinion.

That said, much of Trump's conduct around the 2020 election occurred in plain sight. And other revelations have come out over the years thanks to news reports and the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, so the allegations certainly didn't come out of nowhere.

An AP-NORC poll in April tested public sentiment both on Trump's conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, as well as around the election in Georgia.

A majority — 53% — said Trump did something illegal related to his "alleged interference in Georgia's 2020 vote count," while 12% called his conduct unethical but not illegal and 17% said it was not illegal.

Asked about Trump's role in the events on Jan. 6, 2021, 49% said Trump did something illegal, 19% said his conduct was unethical but not illegal, and 20% said he didn't do anything illegal.

Americans think the broad scope of the allegations is serious

Tuesday's indictment involves charges with potential prison time, with two of the charges having maximum sentences of 20 years in prison.

A Yahoo-YouGov online poll conducted in late May found that 62% of American adults believe Trump should not be allowed to serve if convicted of a serious crime, while 23% said he should be. While clear majorities of independents and Democrats said he shouldn't be allowed to serve, Republicans were split (43% of Republicans said he should be allowed, and 39% said he shouldn't).

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The survey also tested some of the potential charges that Trump could face. One of the charges, obstructing the certification of the electoral vote, was included in the indictment. Back in May, 63% of those surveyed said attempting to obstruct certification of a presidential election election is a serious crime, while 20% did not.

But new polling from the New York Times/Siena College released this week found that just 17% of likely Republican primary voters think Trump committed serious crimes, while 71% do not.

Most Republicans aren't very concerned indictments will weaken Trump politically

A Monmouth poll conducted roughly two weeks before Trump's third indictment echoed the Times/Siena results mentioned above: 72% of registered Republican voters say they are either not at all concerned (47%) or not too concerned (25%) that the "criminal indictments against Donald Trump would make him a weaker candidate against Joe Biden in the general election."

Sixteen percent said they were "somewhat concerned" and 11% said they were "very concerned."

Majority of Americans believe 2020 decided fairly, but dissent stable

In June, Monmouth University found that 59% of Americans said the 2020 election was won fair and square, while 30% said it was won due to voter fraud. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans believed Biden won the presidency thanks to voter fraud.

Americans critical of conduct on Jan. 6, but Republicans less so

Majorities of Americans polled by Monmouth also said that it was appropriate to call the events of Jan. 6, 2021 a riot (66%) and that it was not appropriate to call it a legitimate protest (61%).

But among Republicans, 51% said it was a legitimate protest and 44% called it a riot.

Overall, voters were split on whether it would be appropriate to call the events at the Capitol that day an insurrection — 47% said it was (including just 15% of Republicans), while 43% said it was not.

Americans less likely to back election-denying candidates

Not only did high-profile Republicans who questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election largely lose in the 2022 midterms, but recent NBC News polling shows they could suffer the same fate next year too.

Just 23% of registered voters said that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who says Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election, while 56% said they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate sharing that view.

Among Republicans, 40% said they'd be more likely to vote for that candidate, and 29% said they'd be less likely to support a candidate with that view.