New poll finds Pa. Senate race hasn’t changed since debate

Has Pennsylvania’s Senate contest moved after last week’s debate, where Democrat John Fetterman struggled after the effects of his stroke?

With six days until Election Day, the answer to that question could very well prove decisive in determining Senate control.

Well, a new Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday finds a stable race after the debate. 

 At least on the surface. 

Forty-eight percent of Pennsylvania voters say they definitely or probably will vote for Fetterman, while 49% say they definitely or probably won’t — not substantially different than the 48% will/47% won’t from its poll earlier this month. 

What issues are voters focusing on ahead of Pennsylvania’s tight Senate race?

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That’s compared with 44% who say they definitely or probably will vote for Republican Mehmet Oz, versus 54% who say they definitely or probably won’t — again little change from 43% will/54% won’t from earlier this month.

What’s more, the poll also finds the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Fetterman and Oz to be essentially unchanged. 

But a different poll released on Tuesday — conducted mostly after the debate — shows a different result. Muhlenberg College’s survey has Fetterman and Oz now tied at 47%-47%, a change from its September poll when Fetterman was ahead by 5 points, 49%-44%. 

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(That movement, however, is well within the poll’s margin of error. It also was partially conducted before the Oct. 25 debate.)

And one additional finding from the Monmouth poll shows a potentially closer race: 48% of voters say Fetterman is capable of effectively serving a six-year term as senator, while 49% say he’s not.

That’s compared with 59% of voters saying Oz is capable, versus 39% saying he’s not. 

The Monmouth poll was conducted Oct. 27-31 of 608 Pennsylvania voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percentage points. 

The Muhlenberg College poll was conducted Oct. 24-28 of 460 Pennsylvania likely voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 6.0 percentage points.