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Another day, another poll showing mixed midterm results for President Joe Biden and Democrats with approximately 100 days to go until the midterms.
In the latest national USA Today/Suffolk poll, Biden’s approval rating stands at 39% among registered voters (with 56% disapproving), while a whopping 75% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction — traditionally rough numbers for the party controlling the White House.
But as we’ve seen in other surveys, Democrats are leading on the poll’s generic ballot by 4 points, 44%-40% -- up from a 40%-40% tie a month ago.
Those numbers underscore an important trend: Democrats, so far, are outperforming Biden. Another recent example of this was Wednesday’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, which showed Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., leading GOP challenger Herschel Walker by 3 points (46%-43%), but also with Biden’s job rating in the state at just 36%.
Yet an important reminder about the generic ballot: It has sometimes been an imperfect measurement of the midterm environment.
For one thing, it shows a national matchup when the races for Senate, House and gubernatorial control are determined state by state and congressional district by congressional district.
In addition, generic ballots — including in our own NBC News poll — have often overstated Democratic performance. Historically, Democrats have performed extremely well in cycles when they enjoy a double-digit advantage (or close to it) on the generic ballot. But midterm outcomes are much less clear in cycles where they have a slight lead or slight deficit.
And some political observers believe that, for the party controlling the White House, candidates’ poll numbers eventually start aligning more with a president’s, especially when polls start measuring likely voters instead of registered voters. (Importantly in this USA Today/Suffolk poll, Democrats lead on the generic ballot 44%-40%, but that leaves 16% undecided or not for either party.)
So the generic ballot continues to look up for Democrats in many polls. But will that last?
