Midterm elections roundup: Polls, polls and more polls

On the heels of Monday’s New York Times/Siena College polls in key Senate races, Monday brought a deluge of new polls showing jump-ball races across the battlefield. 

In Nevada, the new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll found Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak both up narrowly (by 2% and 4% respectively) over their GOP opponents, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo with leads well within the margin of error. 

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s final poll found a razor-thin margin in Georgia’s Senate race — Republican Herschel Walker leading Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock 46%-45%, but more breathing room in the governor’s race, where Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 51%-44%. (Again, both leads are within the margin of error.)

And both statewide races are virtual tossups in Arizona — Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads Republican Blake Masters 48%-46%, while Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leads Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs 49%-47%.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail:

Arizona Senate: The New York Times reports that the Libertarian nominee for Senate, Marc Victor, will drop out and endorse Republican Blake Masters in the hopes of not playing spoiler. But the move comes well into early voting. 

Florida Senate: Democratic Rep. Val Demings launched her closing TV ad of the Senate race, focusing on her biography and warning that GOP Sen. Marco Rubio saying he will “gut Social Security and Medicare.” Demings will also hit the trail Tuesday with Biden for a rally in South Florida, per a press release from her campaign. 

Georgia Senate: A new ad from the Senate Leadership Fund uses police body camera footage from Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s ex-wife, where she claims he ran over her foot. Warnock denied the allegation when it became public during his 2020 race. And one of the women who says Republican nominee Herschel Walker encouraged her to have an abortion spoke to ABC News (Walker continues to deny the allegations). 

New Hampshire Senate: Former President Donald Trump endorsed GOP Senate nominee Don Bolduc, noting writing in a Truth Social post that Bolduc “was a strong and proud ‘Election Denier,’ a big reason that he won the Nomination, but he then disavowed,” adding that Bolduc “has since come back.” Bolduc also teamed up with the National Republican Senatorial Committee for a new TV ad.

Pennsylvania Senate: Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman discussed his debate performance, his past comments on fracking and inflation with NBC 10’s Lauren Mayk. 

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For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe debate over AI’s future rages on both coasts

FOR SUBSCRIBERSDecades-old march dispute reignites in Northern Ireland, threatening political crisis

Washington Senate: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is launching her closing TV ad of the race, tying her GOP opponent, Tiffany Smiley, to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Arizona Governor: GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake appeared to mock the attack on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband during a campaign event on Monday. 

Georgia Governor: Former Vice President Mike Pence is joining GOP Gov. Brian Kemp on the campaign trail today, NBC News’ Blayne Alexander reports. Pence and Kemp will hold two events in GOP strongholds. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is also joining Kemp on the trail later this week. 

Michigan Governor: A new ad from Get Michigan Working Again harkens back to the days of Covid restrictions, calling Whitmer a “dishonest hypocrite” for her handling of those policies.

Oklahoma Governor: Former GOP Congressman J.C. Watts cut an ad supporting Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joy Hofmeister over Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, where he says “all this scandal and corruption is just too much.” 

Virginia-02: In a new ad in a race featuring two Navy veterans, the Congressional Leadership Fund is out with a new ad that asks voters from the deck of a military ship if they want to “stay the course, or change direction?”

Michigan-07: Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., is hitting the campaign trail today for an event with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.