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A handful of House races have still not been called, but the 2024 House battleground is already taking shape.
Republicans have taken control of the House and the NBC News Decision Desk estimates the chamber's tally will be 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats, with a margin of error of plus or minus two seats.
That means Democrats will likely need a single-digit net gain in 2024 to retake the House. And their top targets will be Republicans in so-called crossover districts — seats that would have backed President Joe Biden in 2020 had the new congressional lines been in place.
According to data from Daily Kos Elections, which has robust tracking of new and old congressional districts, at least 16 Republicans will represent Biden districts, while at least four Democrats will represent districts former President Donald Trump would have won in 2020.
Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., and Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, would also join this list if they prevail. Their races have not yet been called.
Republicans in Biden districts:
- Arizona-01: Rep. David Schweikert.
- Arizona-06: Juan Ciscomani, a former advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey.
- California-27: Rep. Mike Garcia.
- California-40: Rep. Young Kim.
- California-45: Rep. Michelle Steel.
- Nebraska-02: Rep. Don Bacon.
- New Jersey-07: Former state Sen. Tom Keane.
- New York-01: Nicholas LaLota, Suffolk County Legislature chief of staff.
- New York-03: Businessman George Santos.
- New York-04: Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito
- New. York-17: Assemblyman Mike Lawler
- New York-19: Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro.
- New York-22: Businessman Brandon Williams.
- Oregon-5: Former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez DeRemer.
- Pennsylvania-01: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.
- Virginia-02: Navy veteran Jen Kiggans.
Democrats in Trump districts:
- Maine-02: Rep. Jared Golden.
- Ohio-09: Rep. Marcy Kaptur.
- Pennsylvania-08: Rep. Matt Cartwright.
- Washington-03: Auto repair shop co-owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
