Manchin team dismisses GOP poll showing Gov. Justice ahead

A spokesperson for Sen. Joe Manchin is pushing back on a new poll released Tuesday that shows the West Virginia Democrat trailing GOP Gov. Jim Justice in a potential matchup.

The survey, commissioned by the GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund and first reported by Politico, comes as Justice has said he's considering running for Senate. Manchin has not yet announced if he's running for re-election in 2024.

“Senator Manchin continues to consider the best way he can serve his state and country. But make no mistake, he will win whatever race he enters,” Manchin’s spokesperson, Sam Runyon, said in a statement to NBC News.

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Justice garnered the support of 52% of those surveyed in the poll, while Manchin had support from 42% in the hypothetical matchup between the two. But Manchin had double-digit advantages in hypothetical matchups against state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey, who Manchin defeated by 3 percentage points in 2018, and GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, who launched a Senate run last year.

The poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, finds that voters view Justice more favorably than Manchin. Two-thirds of voters have a favorable view of Justice, while 31% view him unfavorably. A slight majority — 52% — view Manchin unfavorably and 44% view him favorably.

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Back in December, Manchin told reporters that Justice would be his toughest competitor.

“Justice is much better candidate and he will be doing [it] for the right reasons,” he said at the time. “I think Mooney is doing it strictly for his political ambition.”

Outside groups occasionally release polls to try and influence candidates as they weigh whether or not to run. Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has been known to play in GOP primaries to boost candidates deemed most likely to win in November.

The poll surveyed 609 likely registered voters in West Virginia with an oversample of 100 likely primary voters via telephone from Feb. 5-7. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.