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Most GOP nominees who have denied or actively cast doubt on President Joe Biden's 2020 victory have some shot at winning in November, largely because many of them are incumbents.
Nearly 80% of GOP nominees who have cast doubt on the election results are either in competitive races or contests where Republicans are favored to win, according to an NBC News analysis of candidate statements and race ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
NBC News has identified at least 272 GOP nominees for House, Senate, governor and Secretary of State who have denied or cast doubt on the 2020 presidential results. A majority of those nominees — 58% — are in races the Cook Political Report rates as Solid Republican, or are running for Secretary of State in GOP-leaning states (the Cook Political Report does not rate those races).
Their prospects for victory are also largely because many of these nominees are incumbents, who are typically in stronger positions to win re-election due to advantages in fundraising and name identification. Of the 213 nominees favored to win or running in competitive races, 146 are incumbents.
These figures include scores of sitting House Republicans who either supported objections to two states' 2020 Electoral College votes or signed onto an amicus brief supporting a lawsuit aimed at tossing out the 2020 election results in four states.
House
About 78% of House GOP nominees who cast doubt have some shot at winning, per this analysis. A majority of those nominees — 63% — are in races rated Solid Republican.
Again, the vast majority of these nominees who could win are incumbents. Just 13 are not currently sitting lawmakers.
Sixteen of the GOP nominees who have cast doubt on Biden's victory are in races the Cook Political Report considers Toss Ups.
Statewide
As with House races, a majority of GOP nominees running for governor, Senate or Secretary of State who have cast doubt on the 2020 presidential election have a chance at winning.
In Senate races, 14 of the 17 GOP nominees who cast doubt are in races either rated Solidly Republican or as competitive by the Cook Political Report. Seven of them are in Solid Republican races.
In races for governor, 14 of the 18 GOP nominees who cast doubt are in races either rated Solidly Republican or as competitive by the Cook Political Report, and four of them are in Solid Republican races
And in contests for Secretary of State, seven of the 10 GOP nominees who have cast doubt are either in competitive states or states that have traditionally backed Republicans.
