Four fundraising takeaways from the battle for the Senate

Fundraising reports filed over the weekend provide new insights into the battle for the Senate, where Democrats are defending their slim majority.

Republicans need a net gain of just two seats to take control of the chamber, or one seat if they win the White House next year, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes.

The new filings, which cover fundraising from July through September, shows that Democrats continue to dominate the fundraising game, with vulnerable incumbents stockpiling cash and challengers outraising GOP senators in the two competitive states where Republicans are on defense. 

Here are four takeaways from the latest fundraising reports filed Sunday with the Federal Election Commission: 

1. Democrats continue to stockpile cash 

Senate Democrats facing tough re-election races next year are already stockpiling cash, far outpacing their GOP challengers, ending the fundraising quarter with more than three times as much money as their Republican challengers combined. 

The seven Senate Democrats up for re-election in races the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as competitive brought in combined $21.6 million from July through September, ending the quarter with a combined $67.2 million in their accounts. 

The 10 GOP challengers who had filed reports, some of whom launched their campaigns during the quarter, raised a combined $15.3 million and ended the quarter with a combined $18.1 million on hand. That does not include Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick, who launched his campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey after the third quarter ended. Republicans also have not yet fielded a top-tier candidate in Wisconsin.

The top fundraisers in both parties were in Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $5.8 million. Two of his top GOP challengers, state Sen. Matt Dolan and Businessman Bernie Moreno, both raised more than $4.1 million, but they also each loaned their campaigns $3 million. 

Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester had the largest campaign war chest of the group, ending the third quarter with $13 million on hand.

In Michigan, the one open seat Democrats are defending next year, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with a $3 million haul, also outpacing fellow Democrat Hill Harper, who brought in $1 million. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, who launched his campaign with just one month left in the quarter, did raise $825,000.

2. Manchin, Sinema re-election bids unclear

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., have not yet said if they are running for re-election. Those decisions will shake up their respective races. 

But their latest fundraising reports provide few clues about their plans. Both senators saw a sizable drop in fundraising compared to the previous quarter — but their fundraising also did not grind to a complete halt. 

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Sinema raised $826,000 in the third quarter after bringing in more than $1.6 million from April through June. She still ended the quarter with $10.8 million in her campaign account, twice as much as her Democratic challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, even though Gallego outraised the independent senator. 

Manchin also still had a large campaign war chest, banking away $11.3 million. He raised nearly $715,000 — a drop from his $1.3 million haul in the previous quarter. But he still outraised his two GOP challengers, Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney.

3. GOP senators outraised

Senate Republicans are on defense next year in just two states: Texas and Florida, where GOP Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are running for re-election. Both senators were outraised by their Democratic challengers in the third quarter. 

Cruz raised $3.1 million while Democratic Rep. Colin Allred pulled in $4.7 million. Allred also had an advantage in cash-on-hand, banking $7.9 million to Cruz’s $5.8 million. 

In Florida, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell, who launched her run in late August, narrowly outraised Scott, $1.7 million to $1.6 million. Scott did end the quarter with $3.1 million in his campaign account, while Mucarsel Powell’s campaign reported nearly $1.1 million on hand.

4. Primary problem looms for Menendez

Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., is among the senators facing a competitive race, per the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, in part because he is facing federal charges related to bribery, corruption and working as a foreign agent.

Menendez has not yet said if he is running for re-election, but the new fundraising reports show he could be facing a spirited primary challenge from Democratic Rep. Andy Kim. The three-term congressman outraised Menendez in the third quarter, pulling in $1.2 million while Menendez raised $919,000. 

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That’s thanks in part to Kim’s strong fundraising as a House member, given he launched his Senate run five days before the quarter ended, and his House cash can be transferred to a Senate campaign. But Kim’s report showed around half of his funds were raised in those final five days of the quarter. 

Menendez does have much more money to spend on a potential campaign, ending the quarter with more than $8.5 million on hand, while Kim reported $1.9 million.