Eyes on 2024: Trump still dominates in new Iowa poll

Former President Donald Trump holds a more than a 20-point lead over the rest of the GOP field in Iowa, a new poll from the New York Times and Siena College shows. 

While Trump’s lead is significantly smaller in the paper’s Iowa poll than it was in a recent national poll it conducted, Trump’s 44% is more than double that of his closest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s at 20%. 

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is in third with 9%, making this the second prominent Iowa poll showing him posting significantly better numbers in the state than his spot in national polling. Behind him is businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (5%), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (4%), former Vice President Mike Pence (3%) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (1%). Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie finished under 1%. 

There’s some good news for the Trump alternatives in the poll — Scott’s favorable rating is on par with marks for both Trump and DeSantis. And Republicans were more likely to describe DeSantis as “moral,” “likable,” and “able to beat Joe Biden” than in the outlet’s recent poll of national Republicans. 

But the horserace underscores the dominant dynamic in the GOP race — Trump continues to lead big, and 44% support is well above the mark he’ll need to win January’s caucus if the field stays divided. 

In other campaign news…

Dems feeling (Act)blue: Politico digs into the decline in online fundraising among Democrats, and gives voice to some fears within the party that it could be indicative of “a lack of grassroots engagement [that] is a warning sign for Biden ahead of a tough election cycle.”

Another curriculum conundrum: The College Board said Thursday that Florida’s Department of Education has “effectively banned” Advanced Placement Psychology, arguing that it violates state law about restricting the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity, NBC News’ Matt Lavietes reports. 

Scott speeds to the border: South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott travels to the border between Arizona and Mexico to put a spotlight on immigration policy. 

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For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCBP leaders cut out of Trump ad buy decision

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAmerican passenger drafted goodbye texts to her family as Flydubai plane plummeted

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation pushes embattled New York prosecutor into national spotlight

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

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House GOP makes Hunter the hunted: NBC News’ Scott Wong and Rebecca Kaplan report that “Hunter Biden’s business associate, Devon Archer, testified before the House Oversight Committee that he has no knowledge that then-Vice President Joe Biden changed U.S. foreign policy to help his son and that he’s not aware of any wrongdoing by the elder Biden.” But Archer did tell the committee Hunter put his father on the phone with business associates about 20 times, though the calls were brief and didn’t include discussions about business. 

Putting in the labor: A coalition of labor unions will spend at least $50 million to promote policies like universal child care and guaranteed paid leave that Democrats couldn’t get through Congress as part of their signature spending bill last year, NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald reports. 

Mixing work and, work: NBC News’ Henry J. Gomez reports on how Montana GOP Senate hopeful Tim Sheehy hasn’t stepped down from his job as the CEO of an aerospace company, despite company rules limiting political activity. The company told NBC News it’s adopted “additional internal protocols” since his bid but didn’t provide more specific details.

Rallying behind Cuellar: Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the few Democrats who opposed some recent measures to expand abortion rights, unveiled endorsements from a slew of top House Democrats, including Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Cuellar has had a string of tough primary elections as progressives are frustrated with his stances on issues like abortion. 

Headed home: North Carolina GOP Rep. Dan Bishop said he will announce a bid for state attorney general Thursday instead of running for re-election. The Club for Growth PAC quickly endorsed him. 

A reckoning for Justice Democrats: HuffPost reports on how the progressive group Justice Democrats laid off almost half of its staff amid questions about its future.