Eyes on 2024: Five 2024 clues in Tuesday's elections

On Monday, we asked five questions about what Tuesday’s elections in Virginia, Ohio, Mississippi, and Kentucky could tell us about 2024.

Here’s what we learned: 

1. Just how potent is the issue of abortion after Roe v. Wade’s overturn a year ago?

Voters once again signaled support for the right to an abortion — this time approving a ballot measure to enshrine the right to an abortion in Ohio’s state constitution, up until fetal viability, with 57% backing the measure and 43% opposing it. 

And the abortion issue helped carry Democrats to victory in Virginia, where they held on to the state Senate and flipped control of the House of Delegates after warning that GOP success could lead to a ban on abortions. 

NBC’s Adam Edelman writes Tuesday’s results show that abortion rights “remain a major political force for Democrats and a vulnerability for Republicans across the country.”

2. How strong is the power of incumbency?

Incumbency remains a major advantage in governors’ races, with both Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., and Gov. Tate Reeves, R-Miss., fending off their challengers. Beshear earned more than 52% of the vote, defeating GOP state Attorney Daniel Cameron by 5 points and widening his margin from his first narrow victory in 2019.

Reeves also got 52% of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, by around 5 points. 

3. Does Kentucky remain a bellwether?

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For Subscribers

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAbdul El-Sayed tries to woo MAHA voters as Democrats seek inroads with RFK’s supporters

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKratom-like substances are popping up in a typically benign supplement

FOR SUBSCRIBERSGOP super PAC increases its spending for Sen. Jon Husted in tough Ohio race

FOR SUBSCRIBERSRecords reveal tumultuous marriage between slain New York Times executive and wife

FOR SUBSCRIBERSFrom clean energy warrior to ‘wall of shame,’ James Talarico reverses on a fossil fuel money pledge

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCongressional staff planned official trip with luxury stops in Italy and France weeks before election

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA harrowing ordeal aboard an Israel-bound plane

FOR SUBSCRIBERSOpenAI CEO Sam Altman to skip congressional hearing on rogue AI agents

FOR SUBSCRIBERSKey DOJ lawyers departed Trump ‘grand conspiracy’ probe amid pressure to produce, source says

FOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump’s new AI chatbot often links to a site launched under Clinton 26 years ago

FOR SUBSCRIBERSAt MAHA summit, industry CEOs the movement once vilified take the stage

FOR SUBSCRIBERSThis Paralympian has two goals: Win medals and give away $500,000 to her teammates

FOR SUBSCRIBERSCornell rape allegation spotlights stringent New York state laws that have long drawn criticism

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FOR SUBSCRIBERSDecades-old march dispute reignites in Northern Ireland, threatening political crisis

This question won’t be answered until 2024, but Beshear’s victory is likely a welcome sign for Democrats since the Kentucky race has previewed presidential victories. Beshear’s victory could provide a roadmap for Democrats candidates looking to buck efforts to tie them to Biden, which Republicans attempted to do in the final stretch of the Kentucky race. 

But the dynamics of Beshear’s race are difficult to replicate. He built a strong brand that was separate from the national party over his four years in office. Plus, he didn’t have to run on the same ballot as Biden, which will not be the case for Democrats next year. 

4. Is Glenn Youngkin’s star about to take off? Or fizzle out? 

Judging by last night’s election results, it could be starting to dim. Youngkin went all-in on his state’s legislative elections, raising millions of dollars to support GOP candidates and hitting the campaign trail himself. 

He also led the party’s messaging on abortion in the state, calling for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, and other GOP candidates campaigned on that platform. 

Youngkin’s next steps are not clear, especially after the GOP losses. He cannot run for re-election, and he has brushed off questions about whether he would make a late run for president, saying he remained focused on the state legislative elections.

5. And will Democrats continue their winning streak in low-turnout elections?

Despite the loss in Mississippi, which was a tough climb for Presley given the state’s partisan lean, Democrats certainly had plenty to celebrate on Tuesday after some concerning poll numbers for Biden in recent days. 

“Across the country tonight, democracy won and MAGA lost,” Biden posted on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter. “Voters vote. Polls don’t. Now let’s go win next year.”