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Republican hopes of a massive wave of victories in the 2022 midterms were dashed in part because independent voters did not break their way.
Independents made up 31% of the electorate, per NBC News’ Exit Poll, and they favored Democrats by 2 percentage points, with 49% backing Democrats and 47% supporting Republicans.
That’s a sizable shift from recent wave midterm elections, when the prevailing party won independent voters by double digits, fueling gains in the House.
In 2018, Democrats won independents by 12 points, 54% to 42%. They went on to pick up 42 House seats.
In 2014, when Republicans netted 13 House seats, independent voters favored Republicans by 12 points, 54% to 42%.
And in 2010, Independents favored Republicans by a whopping 19 points, 56% to 37%. Republicans went on to net 46 House seats.
This election cycle, Democrats were able to hold their own among independent voters. They won independent women by 12 percentage points, while independent men favored Republicans by 5 percentage points.
Democrats also won voters who described themselves as moderates by a double-digit margin. More than half — 56% — backed Democrats, while 41% supported Republicans.
