Democrats hold an ad spending edge in competitive Senate races down the home stretch, according to an analysis of data from the ad-tracking firm, AdImpact.
Looking at ad spending since Labor Day, as well as spending booked through Election Day, Democrats are spending $440 million on ads in the 13 races rated as toss ups or those considered leaning or likely trending toward either party by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. By comparison, Republicans are set to spend about $400 million on those races.
(Democrats have the spending edge in both toss-up seats and seats that lean in the direction of either party.)
In hotly contested Senate races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin — all marked as Toss Ups by the Cook Political Report — outside groups are the top spenders for Democratic and Republican candidates, accounting for 77 percent of all run and projected ad spending from Labor Day to Election Day.
The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership PAC is projected to spend $38.8 million from Labor Day to Election Day in Georgia supporting Republican Herschel Walker, while Georgia Honor, an outside group affiliated with Democrats, is slated to spend $30.2 million.
In Pennsylvania, the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC is slated to spend $40.3 million over the same time period supporting Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, with SLF spending another $30.9 million.
Senate Leadership Fund is also the top spender for Republicans in Nevada and Wisconsin. The group is projected to spend over $200 million supporting Republican Senate candidates before Election Day, the highest spending outside political group in the United States. In comparison, the Senate Majority PAC is projected to spend $121 million supporting their candidates in the same time frame. SMP is the second highest spender in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
While Democratic outside spending is less than Republican, Democratic Senate candidates have been more effective in raising money to support their own candidacies. That's important because candidates are able to secure lower television rates than outside groups, so they can stretch their dollars further.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has spent over $29.9 million on his own ads, compared to Walker's $6.8 million (with Walker and the National Republican Senatorial Committee splitting another $10.6 million).
In Pennsylvania, Fetterman is spending $15.7 million to Oz's $9.9 million.
It's a similar dynamic in races in the second-tier of comeptitiveness in those ratings from The Cook Political Report — Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is set to outspend his Republican opponent, Blake Masters, by 16 times. And in Ohio, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is spending 3.5 more than his Republican opponent, J.D. Vance.
