KRISTEN WELKER:
This Sunday: poll vault.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
When we fight, we win.
KRISTEN WELKER:
With just six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in our new NBC News poll.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
We are the underdog in this race, and we have some hard work ahead of us.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We don't need votes. What we need is honesty in the election.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Which side is more energized in the final sprint of the campaign? Steve Kornacki will break down the results. Plus: controversial comments.
LT. GOV. MARK ROBINSON:
We are staying in this race. We are in it to win it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
The Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina vows to stay in the race, after reports reveal he once called himself a “Black Nazi” and defended slavery on a porn site.
GOV. TIM WALZ:
We have folks running as Republicans for governor that are proud to refer to themselves as Nazis.
KRISTEN WELKER:
How will it impact Republicans’ chances in this critical battleground state? And: escalating attacks. Israel targets Hezbollah leaders inside Lebanon after a wave of attacks targeting the militant groups' communication devices. Is the war spreading into a wider conflict? My guests this morning: Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News Chief White House Correspondent Peter Alexander; Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report; former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy; and former Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo. Welcome to Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning. We begin with our brand new NBC News poll and the headline: Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump nationally by five points, 49-44%, among registered voters. That is within the margin of error, but it's a shift from our last poll in July when Mr. Trump led President Biden by two points, before Biden's exit from the race. This week, both candidates crisscrossed key battleground states.
DONALD TRUMP:
If Kamala Harris is reelected, she will kill the American dream forever. She's not competent to be president either, but I don't want to be rude.
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS:
Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the United States should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the United States.
KRISTEN WELKER:
There's a dramatic change in how positively voters view Harris. Her 21-point net swing from negative to positive is unmatched by a major party candidate in NBC News polling going back to 1989. And Harris is winning the change argument by nine points. Steve Kornacki will take us through the numbers just moments from now. Also this morning, sources are telling NBC News former President Trump is facing calls from his allies and from within his own campaign to pull his endorsement from scandal-plagued North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson after Mr. Trump's past support.
DONALD TRUMP:
This is Martin Luther King on steroids, okay?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Now, Robinson did not attend a rally Mr. Trump held in North Carolina on Saturday. Mr. Trump didn't mention Robinson, and so far there are no plans for the former president to drop his endorsement. On Thursday, CNN reported Robinson—who is currently the state's lieutenant governor—posted a series of comments on the message board of a pornography website more than a decade ago, including referring to himself as a "Black Nazi" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. Mr. Robinson has said that the online posts are fakes, generated by artificial intelligence.
LT. GOV. MARK ROBINSON:
Those are not the words of Mark Robinson. Clarence Thomas famously once said he was the victim of a high-tech lynching. Well, it looks like Mark Robinson is too.
KRISTEN WELKER:
The Harris campaign is already out with a new ad tying former President Trump to Robinson on the issue of abortion.
DONALD TRUMP:
He's been an unbelievable lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson.
LT. GOV. MARK ROBINSON:
For me, there is no compromise on abortion. Abortion in this country, it's about killing a child because you aren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down.
DONALD TRUMP:
I've been with him a lot. I've gotten to know him, and he's outstanding.
KRISTEN WELKER:
NBC Philadelphia's Lauren Mayk spoke to Mr. Trump's running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, on Saturday.
LAUREN MAYK:
Are you comfortable with Mark Robinson as the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina?
SEN. JD VANCE:
Well, look, the allegations are pretty far out there of course. But I know the allegations aren't necessarily reality. And what I'd say is it's ultimately up to Mark Robinson and North Carolina whether he's going to be their governor and whether he wants to stay in the race.
LAUREN MAYK:
Do you believe him that those were not his posts?
SEN. JD VANCE:
I don't not believe him. I don't believe him. I just think that you have to let these things sometimes play out in the court of public opinion.
KRISTEN WELKER:
For her part, Harris, who is trying to court moderate swing voters, on Thursday sat down in Michigan with Oprah Winfrey and talked about immigration and gun violence.
VP KAMALA HARRIS:
Some people have been pushing a really false choice: to suggest you're either in favor of the Second Amendment or you want to take everyone's guns away. I'm in favor of the Second Amendment, and I'm in favor of assault weapons bans, universal background checks, red flag laws. I'm a gun owner. Tim Walz is a gun--
OPRAH WINFREY:
I did not know that.
VP KAMALA HARRIS:
If somebody breaks in my house, they're getting shot.
KRISTEN WELKER:
With just 44 days until election day, in-person early voting is already underway in three states: Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota. For more on our brand new NBC News poll, I am joined now by National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki to take us through all of the numbers. Steve, a lot of headlines here.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Certainly, Kristen. I mean, you're looking at the biggest Harris 49, Trump 44, five-point advantage for Harris in this poll against Donald Trump. And if we zoom out here and look at the bigger significance of this finding, you know, we've been polling the 2024 race going back to last year. And you can see here these are all the results on the left side of the screen from when Joe Biden was still the Democratic candidate. And now you see this is our first poll since Harris switched in, and look at that result.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You can see that the race has been completely reshaped since Harris took the top of the ticket.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Completely. And one of the things powering that lead we should note, too, there's a pretty pronounced gender gap at this point. Harris among women is leading in our poll by 21 points. Among men, Trump is leading by 12. That is a 33-point gender gap. That's enormous, what we're seeing right here. Take a look at this, too. The debate of course happening in the last couple weeks. Nearly 30% saying that debate made them more likely to support Harris. Much smaller number for Trump. That might be helping her as well here. And then there's this: the view, the overall perception of Kamala Harris. Remember, before she got in the race a lot of talk that, you know, her numbers didn't look better than Biden's. She was 32 positive, 50 negative before getting in this race. And now, this is what you see.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And we have to pause here, because this is the largest increase that we have seen for any politician since George W. Bush in the wake of the September 11th attacks, on this issue--
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah. Absolutely, Kristen. I mean, we were seeing numbers like this for years for Kamala Harris. Now, you're seeing a very different story. And what goes into that, that new level of popularity she has? Take a look here. There it is. Call this up here. Some of the groups that have gravitated the most towards Harris just in terms of favorable: Black voters, 24-point increase; independents, 20; young voters, 26. Young voters, this is a group where Joe Biden, when he was still in, he was putting up very, very poor numbers for a Democrat. With Harris, you can see a 26-point jump there in her favorable score among voters under 30. And then look at it this way, just put it in comparison with Biden and then with all of the other national candidates this year, she's the only one – Kamala Harris – right now in our poll, with a higher positive score than a negative score. Compare that to Trump. And, by the way, at the bottom of this list, look at JD Vance, Trump's running mate, the lowest positive score.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But you have to look at that 53% for Trump: the highest negative rating of everyone here.
STEVE KORNACKI:
There it is, yeah. The only one over 50%, majority there. Take a look at some of the issues here. We asked folks, "What is the most important issue here?" You've got inflation, you know, number one here. Also the economy. I mean, add together, you know, inflation and the economy, you're talking about 40% of the electorate citing that. And take a look at this. We talked about when Trump was running against Biden he had some pretty strong advantages on the issues. Well, this was Trump versus Biden. That's what you're seeing right here. This is Harris--
KRISTEN WELKER:
Wow.
STEVE KORNACKI:
– versus Biden. And, look, Trump still has an advantage on the economy. It's nine points right now. It used to be 22. On the border, it's 21 now. That's a big advantage. It used to be 35. Look at this one. We talked about, remember, age being such a big issue. Trump had a 29-point advantage over Joe Biden on the necessary mental/physical health. Now, Harris, 20-point advantage over Trump.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It's so fascinating, because Republican sources say if former President Trump would stick to the issues—like immigration and the economy—he'd be doing better, and this shows it.
STEVE KORNACKI:
It does. I mean, there's an opportunity there for him. And Harris, part of the success she's had in taking a lead has been eroding that. Okay, but look at it this way. A lot of positive news here for Democrats and for Kamala Harris. But if you're a Republican looking at these numbers, look back to October 2020. Very similar. You know, we say Harris has jumped into a three-point, you know, net-positive rating. That's where Joe Biden was in October 2020. Trump is pretty much in the same place, a little bit worse in terms of views of him as 2020. But here's the other difference: In 2020, Trump was the incumbent president. 60% of people thought the country was on the wrong track. Now, Harris is part of an incumbent administration and two thirds say the country's on the wrong track. In 2020, Trump came within really a handful of votes in a few states of winning in the Electoral College. You know, as the challenger against the incumbent administration, maybe overall not that much of a different setup here. Certainly, in the Electoral College, within reach for him.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Just fascinating findings, Steve, with just six weeks to go.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Here it is. Thank you, Kristen.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And joining me now is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Senator Fetterman, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Hi. It's great to be here. Hi.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, it is great to have you. Let's start with the results of our NBC News poll, which shows that Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by five points, nationally. Still, almost two-thirds of voters say household incomes are falling behind compared to inflation. Why should Pennsylvania voters trust that Harris can turn things around, when so many voters say they don't feel the results of the Biden-Harris policies, Senator?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Yeah, well, it's five points, so I mean, that's encouraging. But now I'm not going to say, "Well, now I don't have to drive for four and a half hours to have a rally for Democrats in rural counties." So, it's going to be very close, and you’re going to see the polls. The Washington Post had a poll I think effectively tied, and the other kinds, just like yours, has Harris up. But regardless, I promise you,Pennsylvania's going to be very close. And otherwise, if it's not, it's going to be a great, nice surprise. But I'm expecting a very close and very competitive race through.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, it usually is in Pennsylvania. I want to shift now to North Carolina, another incredibly competitive state. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, as you know there, reportedly made incredibly controversial posts on a pornographic website. Now, he's denied making those posts. Former President Trump has not dropped his endorsement of Robinson. And I wonder if you think it is fair for voters to judge a candidate based on who they endorse, Senator?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Well, of course. But, I mean, it's great news for the Democrats. I mean, Robinson is – actually, he is the new dream candidate to run against. Back in 2018, I thought that Governor Wolf and I thought Scott Wagner was the dream candidate we could run, and we smoked him by 17 points. And then, of course, Doug Mastriano came on in '22. And that's the best kind of Republican candidate that you could buy, and the Shapiro campaign spent millions of dollars to promote him as well too. But then Robinson's like, "Hey, hold my beer." And now, of course, Trump's not going to walk back, just because he's never going to admit what a disaster that is. But it's nice to know that he's going to win, probably, as a Democratic governor. But I'm not sure the impact that it will have at the top line. But it would be wonderful, and almost ball game, if Harris wins North Carolina. But she's made North Carolina competitive already. And then after Robinson, now we're in the best possible situation to win.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Let me ask you about another topic, this second apparent assassination attempt against former President Trump this week. This is what his running mate, JD Vance, had to say in the wake of it. Take a look.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. JD VANCE:
The big difference between conservatives and liberals is that no one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in the last couple of months, and two people now have tried to kill Donald Trump, in the last couple of months. I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this crap out. Somebody's going to get hurt by it.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, what's your response to Senator JD Vance?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
I don't know. Who's actually listening to what Vance says? It's been months already. No one's really listening to him anymore. You know, he has developed a kind of reputation to say dumb things, pointless things, and offend everybody. And he's been picked as the most unpopular pick in history. But no one's listening to him. I'm certainly not. And here we are right now.
KRISTEN WELKER:
To the substance of his charge, though, he'd say, "I'd say that's pretty strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and needs to cut this blank out." How do you respond to that specific part of what he says?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Now, that's absolutely absurd. Every Democrat condemned the assassination attempts, and I did as well, too. And you know, they're talking about eating the dogs and saying outlandish kind of things. Now, let's just have a serious conversation about this election, not talking about the kind of empty kind of rhetoric from somebody like JD Vance.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I want to ask you about something that Vice President Kamala Harris said this week. She was talking about gun ownership with Oprah Winfrey. She said, quote, "If somebody breaks into my house they're going to get shot." You, Senator, are a gun owner. As the leader of a party that prides itself on advocating for gun safety, was it responsible for Vice President Harris to make those comments?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Absolutely. I think the vast majority of Americans, if you had somebody breaking into your house that might be there to harm you, you probably have the right to shoot them. And I think that the vast majority of Americans would agree with that.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Well, let me talk about a big issue, another big issue, I should say, in your state, the issue of fracking. I know you've talked about this quite a bit. Vice President Harris, as you know, once supported a ban on fracking when she was running for president in 2020. She even sued the Obama administration to prevent fracking off California's coast. Now, she says she will not ban the practice as President. Why should voters trust that that is really what the Vice President believes?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
So strange why we just keep talking about fracking. Now, back in 2020 I said that that might be an issue, but it's not going to be a defining issue. And now, in 2024 we're still trying to talk about fracking. And now the other side, they're talking about eating cats, and geese, and dogs, and saying absurd things, and talking about how, if Trump doesn't win he said that, you know, you'd have to blame the Jews on that. And just absurd things. Now, like, having a serious policy conversation when the other side is just absolutely on fire. And here’s where we are, and here we are also, that it's going to be very close in Pennsylvania, and it's not going to be defined by fracking.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, and we are talking about it because, of course, it supported 120,000 jobs back in 2022. Let me read you some of what you have said about fracking. In 2016, you called it a stain on Pennsylvania. In 2018, you said you don't support fracking at all. But then in 2022, you said you absolutely support fracking. Senator, what exactly do you like about fracking now?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
It's strange for some weird "gotcha," kind of taking quotes out of context. And you know, here I am now, I'm a United States Senator, and I won by five points, a record margin back in '22. And again, it might be an issue in fracking. And I fully support fracking. So does the Vice President Harris. And now if you want to have a serious conversation about policy, then I would challenge Trump and Vance to have one, other than talking about eating pets.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And we'll have plenty of questions for Senator Lindsey Graham, there's no doubt about that. But to the point, what do you now like about fracking? You say you're not going to ban it; you support it now.
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
Uh-oh. "They're eating dogs, they're eating cats." You know, again, so okay. Yes, any more on fracking? I think –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, I want to ask you about the Middle East actually. Let's move on, because I do want to get this in. This week, as you know, a new front opened in the war in the Middle East, jeopardizing ceasefire talks. Senator Bernie Sanders accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of sabotaging a deal. Take a look at what he said.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS:
Every time a deal appears close, Netanyahu moves the goalposts, introducing new demands, and torpedoing the deal. It is clear to me that Netanyahu is prolonging the war in order to cling to power.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, you have stood firmly behind Israel. But do you agree with any part of what your colleague, Senator Sanders, said there?
SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN:
No, not at all. And I want to be very clear, I thought what Israel chose to do about blowing up the pagers, and then walkie-talkies, and then after targeting and eliminating membership and leadership of Hezbollah, I absolutely support that. And in fact, if anything, I love it. And Israel demonstrated that they will not allow terrorists not to be held accountable, and I fully support that. And it's not about, nothing that my colleague has said.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Senator Fetterman, it is always great to talk to you. Really appreciate your being on this morning. When we come back, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina joins me next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back, and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina joins me now. Senator Graham, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Happy anniversary.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you very much.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
And they said it wouldn't last.
KRISTEN WELKER:
One year in the chair. Thank you for being here.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
And you have a three-and-a-half-month old?
KRISTEN WELKER:
That's right.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
A lot going on in your house.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That's for sure. Thank you for being here so frequently.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Thank you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you for being here in person today.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Glad to be.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Really appreciate it. Let's start talking about the embattled gubernatorial candidate –
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– in North Carolina, Mark Robinson. Of course it's alleged that he put these posts up, very controversial, on a pornographic website. He says he didn't do it. Former President Donald Trump spoke yesterday in North Carolina, didn't mention him, has not dropped his endorsement. Senator, do you think that former President Trump should drop his endorsement of Mark Robinson?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
I think what's going to happen here is that he deserves a chance to defend himself, Mark Robinson. The charges are beyond unnerving. If they're true, he's unfit to serve for office. If they're not true, he has the best lawsuit in the history of the country for libel. He's claiming they were artificially created, and that CNN passed it along to be true. Has NBC confirmed this?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Not yet. We're all looking into it.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Okay. Well, so what I would do if I were him, I would hire me the best lawyer I could find, I'd sue the hell out of CNN, because what they're saying about him is just unbelievable. Now, he needs to do more, in my view. He has a right to defend himself. He has an obligation to defend himself. This is hanging over his campaign. Trump won in 2016 and 2020 when the governor candidate lost both times. I don't think this hurts Trump. But as to Robinson, he's a political zombie if he does not offer a defense to this that's credible.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, these allegations, this story came out on Friday. He has had multiple days to defend himself. He has not produced one shred of evidence. And as you know, he's had plenty of other highly controversial comments in the past, including saying, "Let's stop talking about Hitler and the Nazis." Do you think he could cost Trump North Carolina?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
No, I really don't. Because Trump won when the governor candidate lost in 2016 and 2020. But here's what's important: I'm in South Carolina, I see the ads every 15 seconds. This is a major allegation by a major news organization that needs to be addressed. He has not only a right to defend himself, but an obligation to defend himself.
KRISTEN WELKER:
At the very least, should former President Trump pull his endorsement or make it clear that he's distancing himself?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
I think what you're going to see happen here is Robinson's going to have to deal with this. There's nothing – no accusation involving Trump. It's all about Robinson. You asked a good question. Should every Republican in the country be held responsible for this guy? I would say no. It's him, not me, it's not Trump. He's the one that supposedly said these things. He has a right to defend himself. He needs to defend himself.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, let's move onto some of your activity this week. You traveled to Nebraska, one of only two states that awards its electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner-take-all. That, as you know, could be decisive in this election.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Absolutely.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It awarded Joe Biden, for example, one electoral vote in the Omaha area back in 2020. You met with state lawmakers to persuade them to change to a winner-take-all system. Here's what Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had to say about this trip earlier today – earlier this week.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER:
Look, they're very worried about the election, as they should be. The American people every day see the contrast. They can't win legitimately so they always try to change the rules at the last minute.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Senator, you've seen the results of our poll. Can Donald Trump win if you don't change the rules in Nebraska?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
This is really – number one, 65% of the people in your poll say the country's on the wrong track. Who's best able to solve the crime problem? Trump by six. Who's best on the economy? Trump by nine. Inflation, Trump by eight. Border, Trump by 21. So what do I get out of this poll? On the things that matter most to the American people, Trump is winning decisively. In a head-to-head, he is not. Now I know why the Teamsters voted the way they did. The Teamsters have endorsed every Democratic candidate for president for the last 30 years except Harris. They must believe, like the American people, she is not good on the issues that matter most to the Teamsters. That's the only explanation, is that she lost the endorsement of the Teamsters for the first time in 30 years – Why? Because she's bad on the issues they care about.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Given what you're saying, though, if she's not good on these issues, why do you need to change the rules in Nebraska?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
I think Nebraska has been talking about this for years. It is a very close election. Sixty-three days ago, Chuck Schumer led a coup to overthrow Joe Biden, and he's telling me or any other Republican what we should be doing? If they change the law in Nebraska, it won't be on the phone in the middle of the night. It will be through a democratic process. The entire federal delegation of Nebraska, House members and two senators, want this changed. To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president or not, and she's a disaster for Nebraska and for the world.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I hear you're calling it a coup. Of course, Democrats have the right to change who's at the top of the ticket.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Yeah, so does Nebraska.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Very quickly, very quickly, before we get to the Middle East, what do you think the chances are? What's the over/under that this change actually happens in Nebraska?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Fifty-fifty, down to two people.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Okay. Let's go to the Middle East now. The U.S., as you know, is trying to avoid an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon after, frankly, a new front in this war opened up this week. And there are real concerns that Prime Minister Netanyahu will go into Lebanon as soon as next week. Should he pull back? Should he deescalate?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
This is a dream scenario for Iran. They're trying to suck Bibi and Israel into a fight. October the 7th was designed to stop normalization. Trump did the Abraham Accords. Biden's been working to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel. That's a nightmare for Iran. So October the 7th was designed to stop that. It was so horrific. Now you see a front opening in the north. So here's what I would tell my friends in Israel: Do not give up on normalization with Saudi Arabia. I know you got to deal with Hezbollah. There was an imminent attack. But two things – one or two things have to change in the Mid East. We need to make game-changing peace, which is reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, or game-changing military strategy. Going into Lebanon to establish a buffer zone won't work unless you hit Iran. To my friends in Israel, you're fighting the proxies. Fight the source, the great Satan, Iran. To the Biden administration, you've let Iran run wild. You've given them $80 billion of relief on sanctions. They're rich, they're running wild. And now's the time to hit the source of the problem, the Iranians.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Let's talk about another headline this week. Donald Trump was speaking at an Israeli-American Council event. He did make waves because he seemed to suggest that Jewish voters would be to blame if he doesn't win the election, Senator. Listen to what he said.
[BEGIN TAPE]
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
If I don't win this election, and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens. Because at 40%, that means 60% of the people are voting for the enemy.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
The Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff said those comments were trafficking in tropes scapegoating Jews. Is he right? How do you respond?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
I would tell President Trump that the Jewish American voter is probably concerned about the same thing that all other voters are. To the Democratic Party, why are you losing African American men? Why are you losing ground with minorities? Rather than blaming them, you ought to convince them to vote for Vice President Harris. My advice to President Trump is that the Jewish American voter, I'm sure they do care about Israel. There's been no better friend of Israel. But talk about crime, talk about the economy, talk about inflation, talk about border. That's the way you persuade people in this country. We have an obligation to persuade people to vote for us.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Very quickly, on Ukraine. At the debate last week, Donald Trump was asked if he wants Ukraine to win the war, repeatedly pressed on this. He did not answer. What message does that send to Vladimir Putin, that he couldn't say, "Yes, I want Ukraine to win”?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
What does winning look like? Here's what I think will happen if President Trump wins: He will end this war. The biggest mistake the Biden administration has made, stopping national gas exports to Europe. They were against the Keystone Pipeline, Harris, and for the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But Senator, quickly because we're almost out of time, does it concern you that he can't just say, "Yes, I want to see Ukraine win”?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
No, I’m very – it concerns me that –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Does that not send a mixed message to Putin?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
– Ukraine was invaded on Biden's watch. It concerns me that Iran's running wild on Biden's watch. It didn't happen on Trump's watch. Harris and Biden are a disaster. Ukraine was invaded by Russia.
KRISTEN WELKER:
But on Ukraine --
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Iran is running wild, wreaking havoc. So no, I am confident Donald Trump will change things. If you want the world to change, and you elect Harris, nothing's going to change.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Were you happy with that answer, Senator? Were you happy with that answer?
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
No, I'm okay with the answer of not telling what winning looks like. I am confident he will not reward Putin. But here's what I would say to the American people: if you think we're on the wrong track, you're right. If you think Kamala Harris is going to change things, you're wrong. She has her fingerprints on Afghanistan. She sat on the sidelines, she boycotted Bibi's speech. The Iranians see her as weak. The Russians see her as weak. Do you think it's an accident the world's on fire, the border is broken, inflation is through the roof? She's not going to change things. She's going to make things worse. And that's what our poll shows.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Senator Lindsey Graham –
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM:
Thank you.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– thank you very much again for being here in person. We really appreciate it. When we come back, Vice President Harris's favorability rating rises 16 points in just two months, and she's winning the battle as the candidate who represents change. Our panel is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is here: NBC News Chief White House correspondent Peter Alexander, co-anchor of Weekend Today; Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report; former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy of Florida, president of the Center Aisle Coalition; and former Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo of Florida. We have the Florida contingent here. Thanks to all of you for being here. Peter, I want you to kick this off, and let's delve into some of these really stunning numbers that we're seeing. Vice President Kamala Harris with a 16-point swing, up 16 points from where she was in July in her favorability rating, unprecedented in our poll. What is the Harris campaign’s strategy to keep building this momentum?
PETER ALEXANDER:
Well – well, I think for one, I don't know that they necessarily trust that these numbers are numbers they're going to rely on. They still feel this is going to be very tight in the states where this matters most right now. And to that point in particular, from my conversations with those in the Harris campaign, they're very focused on those hard-to-reach voters right now. In particular, they describe them to be as people who are younger. They are mostly male. And they are racially diverse right now. In particular, they try to have multiple touch-points, as they describe it, with these people, not just to introduce themselves to them once, to have them see their ads once, but as many times as they can. And to that point, they're trying to get them where they are: college football games. I was watching some football yesterday – big win for Michigan, I have to say. There were several Harris ads you saw throughout the course of – of yesterday. And also I wouldn't be surprised if they start showing up on sports betting sites as well. One other group to watch, Kristen, worth noting: non-college educated white women as well. They think that they can gain some ground in that community too.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It is about finding voters in all of those unique spaces that Peter's talking about. Amy, one of the other big headlines is that Harris is up by nine points when we asked, "Who is the change candidate?" She's currently in the White House –
AMY WALTER:
Yes, she's just the current vice president –
KRISTEN WELKER:
– so it’s just extraordinary. She’s made this argument. What's behind that? And what are your key takeaways that you see?
AMY WALTER:
Well, my key takeaways from this is that she's been able to change this from a race that was a referendum on Joe Biden to a race that is a referendum on Donald Trump. And what's remarkable to me beyond the favorable numbers, when you look at the questions of, "Who do you think could serve as commander in chief? Who do you think will be capable and effective?" She has been able to not just move into the positive column there but she’s – on the issue of competent and effective, she’s seen – she's moved 23 points from where Biden was. I mean, this was a big advantage for Trump going into the election when Biden was the nominee. So the ability, once again to make this, as I said, to make this race now not so much about the Biden administration but about Trump himself. And look, I think the senator said this as well that where Trump does have an advantage continues to be the economy. But even on the economy, that nine point advantage, not only is it much smaller than he had over Biden, but it's basically tied with where the NBC poll had this race in 2020 on the issue of the economy.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It does look a lot like 2020 if you look at these numbers. Stephanie, one of the things that's so fascinating is that when you think about an issue like the economy, Vice President Harris has been rolling out some of her economic policies. But she's not filling in every single blank for voters. Is this, do you think, a strategy that's working? Or does she need to be more out front? She obviously did the event with Oprah this past week. But does she need to do more?
STEPHANIE MURPHY:
I think the Harris campaign, in a very short amount of time, have run an incredibly disciplined campaign. And it's working for them. They've introduced her to the voters. They really focus on her values. And they’ve sprinkled in a little bit of policy. But at the end of the day, voters vote on values. They want to know that this candidate cares about them, can feel their pain and has the vision for leadership. And based on the numbers, so far that is resonating with voters. And so while swing voters still say they want more policy, do they really? And when you get into policy details, you're getting into the weeds, and you lose your top line messaging. So I think more of the same.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And, Carlos, all of this comes as we are of course tracking this controversy swirling around North Carolina's gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson. Senator Lindsey Graham said he thinks Trump can still win North Carolina. What say you? What are your sources telling you about how much concern there is inside Democratic circles about this?
CARLOS CURBELO:
Well, Kristen, I think the word "discipline" is really the one we should focus on here. We look at these numbers, and the change is drastic. But is it really that surprising? I mean, Donald Trump's campaign has been surrounded by so many distractions. And this one in North Carolina is just the most recent one. We heard Senator Graham. We always hear his surrogates on TV pleading with him to focus on the issues, on the economy, on immigration. He has forfeited his lead on these issues. Not to take anything away from Vice President Harris. She has run a very disciplined campaign. But Donald Trump has done the opposite. And this controversy in North Carolina, look, they can still win North Carolina. They might. But they're going to have to spend limited resources there. And that gives another advantage to the Harris campaign.
PETER ALEXANDER:
And just a reminder as we talk about North Carolina: this is a state that Joe Biden lost by one point, what, 3% four years ago. This is a close state right now. And about Mark Robinson, this wasn't just predictable. This was predicted. And talking to smart Republicans in North Carolina just yesterday, they ask two questions right now: Have we seen everything? Remember Madison Cawthorn –
KRISTEN WELKER:
I'm told not necessarily, yeah.
PETER ALEXANDER:
– a couple of years ago. This thing took not just days. It took weeks. This could marinate. We could be dealing with this for a while now. And separately, how is this going to impact Donald Trump?
KRISTEN WELKER:
That’s right.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Republicans are going to vote for Donald Trump. Democrats are going to vote for Kamala Harris. But there are 440,000 new unaffiliated voters in North Carolina since 2020. And one other thing to keep an eye on you may not think about – about North Carolina: there are more HBCU, historically Black college undergrads, in the state of North Carolina than in any other state in the country.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Amy, what about that? What about those figures that Peter cites, those unaffiliated voters who are up for grabs right now?
AMY WALTER:
Yeah. So you look at North Carolina, it's true, with 74,000 votes, the difference in 2020 between Biden winning and Biden losing. And I don't know. I'm – I’m always skeptical to think that there is a reverse coattails, in other words, that the bottom of the ticket impacts the top of the ticket. Where I think it becomes a factor though: young voters have not, if you – if you look at the data, they have not turned out at the rate that Democrats would need them to be in order to really give them that advantage. And is this an issue that's going to pull them out? In other words, it's not that this is the issue that they're going to turn against Trump while they're already voting. It's is seeing this one more reason for them to show up and vote, and while they're there, they vote for Democrats?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Alright.
CARLOS CURBELO:
Mitch McConnell –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, yeah.
CARLOS CURBELO:
– has been talking to Republicans about candidate quality for about 15 years. Lesson yet to be learned.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Alright. We'll come back. We'll have a lot more with the panel, a lot more to chew on. But when we come back, the threat of political violence hangs over the 2024 race. Former President Trump is not the first Secret Service protectee to be the target of multiple assassination attempts. Our Meet the Press Minute is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. Former President Trump survived a second apparent assassination attempt in just over two months, a shocking event for a nation all too familiar with repeated threats on the lives of its leaders. President Gerald Ford also survived two attempts within weeks. In 1975, a member of the Charles Manson family cult tried to assassinate Ford in Sacramento. 17 days later, he faced another attempt in San Francisco. William E. Simon Joined "Meet The Press" two days after the attempt. He was the secretary of the treasury, which, at the time, meant he oversaw the U.S. Secret Service.
[START TAPE]
IRVING R. LEVINE:
The New York Times editorial yesterday stated that, "It is startling, after the Secret Service tightening of its procedures in the wake of the assassinations of the 1960s, that a vociferous member of the Manson family would wander so easily into the path of a strolling President." What’s your response to that comment? Do you have any plans for reviewing the Secret Service procedures?
SEC. WILLIAM E. SIMON:
The Secret Service procedures are as adequate as any procedures can be in carrying out their duties of protecting the various people that they protect by law. And they carry it out in a way that I think is as professional, if not more professional, than any other agency in the world in carrying out these duties.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
When we come back, early voting is already underway. But are Republicans looking to make some last-minute changes to election rules? More with the panel next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And welcome back. The panel is still here. Peter, you had a chance to speak exclusively with the first lady this week. You talked about the transition of power. What did – actually, let's play a little bit of that interview and then get your reaction on the other side.
[BEGIN TAPE]
JILL BIDEN:
I think we have to come together. I think we have to vote as Americans. You know, that's a right that we've been given, and I think we have to take advantage of that. And then we have to have a peaceful transfer of power.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
What was your takeaway from what she told you?
PETER ALEXANDER:
Well, notably this was the first time we've had a chance to speak to the first lady since her husband got out of this race. About his decision she said, "I am totally at peace, and so is he on that." She acknowledged a bit of relief that he doesn't have the weight on him that he would've had as a presidential candidate. Now, he's been in politics for so many years. Finally, he can help support another candidate in some form. Also spoke about political violence a bit, was expressing her gratitude and praise for the Secret Service, for the job they have done, saying that she does not feel any fear. The one thing I will say, in terms of reporting, a little nugget, from speaking to her team over the course of this last week, is that they reminded me that she is a home-grown girl from Philadelphia and that you will soon see her on the trail for Kamala Harris in her hometown of Philly.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That is a good nugget. All right. Well, we will look for that. Stephanie, you know, Peter's conversation comes as we are doing all of this reporting on what's happening inside these states. I just talked to Senator Lindsey Graham about Nebraska, but let's start off by talking about Georgia, where the state election board just voted 3-2 to basically say that all votes that are machine counted have to be hand counted as well. What are the implications of this? Brad Raffensperger saying this could create chaos.
STEPHANIE MURPHY:
Yeah. So our system is antiquated and difficult to understand because it's different from one state to the next. And by having Georgia have to hand count ballots, it doubles down on that antiquated part, but it also creates opportunity to sow misinformation. We found in the January 6th Committee that those differences between the way states count votes and when they announce were used to sow doubt on the outcome of the election. And when average Americans were lied to by powerful people, they showed up on January 6th and engaged in acts of political violence. And I think we really have to brace ourselves, knowing that there's quite a few number of lawsuits already filed around all elements of voting. And it feels like there's a foundation being laid for contesting the outcome of this election.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Carlos, what do you make of it?
CARLOS CURBELO:
So, look, this is probably going to make the post-election messy again, and "messy" comes with risk, right? But can we talk about what it does now to the race? It makes the race about the past. It makes Donald Trump's campaign about the 2020 election. This is why Republicans didn't have a red wave in 2022, because 2022 was about 2020, and Donald Trump is making 2024 about 2020. So, this is yet another example of how lack of discipline is costing Donald Trump and how the focus isn't on the issues, where he has a clear advantage.
AMY WALTER:
Well, and that's that, "Be careful of what you ask for." The more the conversation is about, "Are they going to change the rules at the last minute in Nebraska? They're changing the rules in Georgia.” Does that encourage those who maybe weren't interested in voting for Kamala Harris but they really didn't want to see Donald Trump elected? Now, they come out to vote. Anytime that Donald Trump's in the news, yes, it helps motivate his base. But, boy, does it –
CARLOS CURBELO:
Well, and what about the Kemp –
AMY WALTER:
– put rocket fuel on the other side.
CARLOS CURBELO:
– the Kemp Republicans in Georgia, right? This –
CARLOS CURBELO:
– certainly has an effect on them, too.
STEPHANIE MURPHY:
And he did this in the two Senate races, in those specials, and the Democrats ended up winning those Senate seats in Georgia.
KRISTEN WELKER:
We should say there's a very delicate alliance right now between Kemp and Trump, and anything could potentially send it in the wrong direction. But, Peter, let's talk about Nebraska. You heard Senator Lindsey Graham defend his trip there and say, "Look, he has every right to be there. The Democrats changed who was at the top of their ticket." But the optics of this, does it not essentially suggest that Trump is feeling really nervous?
PETER ALEXANDER:
Let's be clear: This would be a last-minute change to the way it has been for the last three decades here. And let's also be clear that, right now, they don't have the votes that they need to do to make this change right now, even though Donald Trump is directly engaging in this process, in some form. But the big picture reminder here is that every electoral vote could matter this go-around, right? So this is still going to be a tight race. And those slim margins, a little change like that could be a difference maker.
AMY WALTER:
Well, and it's also a sign of a campaign that's been on defense and continues to be on defense. I don't know the last time that it felt as if the Trump campaign were actually playing offense. This is what you do when you feel like, "Well, we may not be winning." And so that's not a sign of a confident campaign.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. I mean, Stephanie, you know, Lindsey Graham said chances are 50/50. As Peter notes, they just don't have the votes right now. At the same time, Democrats are watching this closely because that one electoral vote was important to Joe Biden's victory in 2020. It could be decisive, depending on how the chips fall.
STEPHANIE MURPHY:
It could be decisive, if it gets thrown back to the House, all the permutations of what happens if the vote has to go to the House, where it's one state, one vote. So, there is a lot about the way that our elections are structured and the way the elections are playing out this cycle that leads me to believe that it might be a really sporty few months after November.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah. And Carlos, just looking forward, given all of this and given what Amy is saying about former President Trump effectively being on defense right now, what do you think the strategy is to get on offense? Is there one, based on your conversations?
CARLOS CURBELO:
Look, in some ways, he should maybe emulate what Vice President Harris has done. She has pivoted to the center, a true and tested strategy in American politics. Donald Trump keeps pivoting to the past. He's trying to max his base. His base – I mean, it's powerful. We can't underestimate it. And he can still win this race. No question. But his base has fallen short three general elections in a row. He has to grow from his base, and he's doing nothing to achieve that.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And our poll, yet again, shows what is shaping up to be a historic gender gap, Amy.
AMY WALTER:
Right. And we don't know exactly who is going to turn out. I mean, that is the question. Any of us could know that today, of who is going to show up and vote. But who the most motivated is an important question. But then you ask the question – I don't think you had it on your poll, but I've seen in other polls – asking voters who they think will win. And before Biden got out of the race, not surprisingly, most voters saying they thought that Donald Trump was going to win. In polling that's been coming out now, Harris is seen as the more likely victor, which tells you a little bit about, once again, that the agenda in terms, of who's controlling it, has shifted appreciably to Harris's benefit.
STEPHANIE MURPHY:
Yeah. And I think it's notable, too, the number of new registrations that have registered to vote. And that's bringing new people into the political process, which is healthy. And most of those people came, that bump came on the Democratic heels.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right. Guys, great conversation.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Hey, one year at Meet the Press. Congratulations.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Thank you. Thank you all for being here, for this big Sunday, and being a part of it. Thank you. Appreciate it. And thank you. That is all for today. Thank you for watching. We will be back next week, because if it's Sunday it's Meet the Press.
